Jesse Felten

LISTEN YOU SILICON VALLEY RIGHT WING FUCKS. IF YOU DONT GET YOUR ORANGE LAPDOG TO BACK THE FUCK OFF OUR FRIEND JEROME WE FINANCIERS ARE GONNA SEND TREASURY YIELDS SO HIGH 1983 IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE A HAPPY DAYDREAM IN COMPARISON. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER

@Adventuring_RE Pure will likely cost similar to the Carlsbad desal plant and reduce waste water being pumped into the ocean. Also much easier to get through environmental permitting. I’m all for desal also, but Pure is a good move to diversify water supply.

This appears to be an overhead photo of a project that has been imagined for more than 20 years and has probably already cost us billions in untold consulting fees… and per usual is WAY behind schedule and over budget. Stay tuned tomorrow for a close look at our new “State of the Art”🥴 “Toilet to Tap” errrr “Pure Water” Project… scheduled to flow 30,000,000 Gallons by 2026… 🤫 Please don’t tell anyone, but there no way in Hell on God’s Green Earth this facility will come only “by 2026” and my guess is actually… NEVER. This facility and project will most likely never ever materialize and you’ll see why tomorrow. We could’ve built 10 Desal Plants for the cost of this scam. 🤗 ScamDiego! 😑

@davidkaylor @StumpGuyTy Sell so much better? Model Y was top selling car in the US and globally.

@StumpGuyTy Yeah. A normal car that happened to be EV would sell so much better idk how nobody gets that

Why do electric cars have to look like electric cars? Why can’t they make one that looks like… a normal car?

@C_Ryan_C @girdley @techsalesguy Live here, can confirm this is accurate.

@girdley @techsalesguy Ocean Beach, Mission Beach, Pacific Beach, Bird Rock, La Jolla, Encinitas, Del Mar, Carlsbad, Coronado. You could legit go down the coast furthest west in San Diego and nearly all of them are walkable.

La Jolla, CA is a top 3 place to retire. You can’t convince me otherwise.

Damn, I wasn't ready for how this would feel. We didn't have a camcorder, so there's no video of me with my mom. I dropped one of my favorite photos of us in midjourney as 'starting frame for an AI video' and wow... This is how she hugged me. I've rewatched it 50 times.

@echo5juliet As a frequent runner in that zone, I am blown away that the city leaders think it’s acceptable policy to allow the campers to ruin the aesthetic of such a desirable area by allowing them to “camp” for free while they dump tons of trash/junk. Failed policy for sure.

Up before dawn and rode Mission Bay Park. I counted all of the homeless dilapidated campers on the east side of the bay and Fiesta Island. Wait for it… 353 campers camped illegally (during hours of no parking/camping). 202 campers from De Anza North to the Visitors Center/Clairemont Drive. 151 campers from Visitors Center to and on Fiesta Island and South Shores lot. When will the city do its job and enforce the law? I saw a camper leaking raw sewage onto the street. Clear health/safety violation and danger to public health. WTF 🤬 @MayorToddGloria @JoeLaCavaD1 @CMJenCampbell @CarloCBS8 @amyforsandiego @dtmcculloch @Adventuring_RE

It’s a real shame that @nbcsnl is on summer break, because that Elon/Trump cold open would be absolute gold.

@rascal113646 @Adventuring_RE I believe he’s implying there are more listings than normal, but Pacific Beach, with lots of college students, has over 25k dwelling units. This pic is prob ~40% of that zip code. So 159 listings is ~1% of supply available for rent under $7500. I think it’s below normal for May.

@JesseInSD @Adventuring_RE So is the map showing more or less than usual for this time of year?🤷

One week from Summer in San Diego… I’ve never seen anything like this…

@TSLAFanMtl No revenue from selling ad space on the giant screen?

Austin Robotaxi Financials There are 3 sections to this: 1. Operations 2. Revenue 3. Costs I will cover key assumptions from each section individually. 1. OPERATIONS - Avg of 10 miles/trip. - 50% taxi up-time. Down time is for charging, cleaning, driving to meet riders, idling, etc. - Avg driving speed = 20 mph These assumptions yield: - 240 miles/day/Robotaxi - 24 trips/day/Robotaxi I assume tesla's Austin fleet will be composed of 100 Robotaxis. 2. REVENUE I assumed a fixed $1.75 initial charge and $1.30/mile variable price. This is to be competitive with Uber, and assumes that Tesla will attempt to undercut Uber in price. Note that Uber can and probably will respond to defend market share in Austin and other regions that Tesla tries to target. $1.75 x 24 trips/day = $42 $1.30/mile x 240 miles/day = $312 Total Revenue/Robotaxi/Day = $354, or $1.50/mile if an average robotaxi drives 240 miles/day. 3. COSTS I looked at multiple things to try and properly calculate costs. I then standardized all cost numbers into a $/day figure, using the fleet of 100 cars as the denominator for cost/robotaxi, and 240 miles driven per day as the denominator for $/mile. Estimating cost is actually the most complex part of this entire model. Let's explore each cost bucket individually (tables are below for your reference). A) VEHICLE MANUFACTURING I used $38k as Tesla's cost to build a Model Y in the U.S. This higher than their overall production cost/vehicle (which is closer to $35k), but that number is diluted from heavy China production. I assume a 6-year depreciation calculation to estimate the annual impact. B) CHARGING Key charging assumptions include the rate Tesla will pay = $0.10/kWh, and the human cost that will be required to manage charging the vehicles. I assume that Tesla's automatic charging technology is not yet ready and that they will need to employ some people to charge their fleet of 100 robotaxis. I assume there will be 2 charging sites to service Austin, and each site will employ 5 individuals, who will share 24x7 work requirements. Each employee earns a modest $80k/year - salary and benefits. C) INSURANCE I assumed insurance would cost $3,500/year. D) MAINTENANCE I made some assumptions for cleaning, tires, brakes, filters, fluids, repairs and other maintenance (see the table). E) REMOTE OPERATORS I do think that Tesla's service area will be quite small (hence only 100 cars), and the vehicles will require remote operators to intervene/supervise the vehicles. I used a ratio of 1 operator per 20 robotaxis. This is possibly too conservative. I assume a modest annual salary of $100k/employee, salary + full benefits. F) ROADSIDE ASSISTANCE I assume that Tesla will require some staff to be on the roads in order to physically support the fleet of Robotaxis in case vehicles get stuck or require assistance that cannot be managed remotely. I used a ratio of 1 roadside assistance vehicle/employee per 25 robotaxis. I assume a modest annual salary of $100k/employee, salary + full benefits. There is also the salary of manager to oversee all of the remote operation and roadside assistance people, at a salary of $200k/year. G) ENGINEERING SUPPORT/NETWORK MAINTENANCE Tesla will need to dedicate some programming support to the robotaxi business. This is to ensure the software is running optimally, making improvements, ensuring a seamless customer experience, etc. I assume that 5 employees will serve in this capacity, and they will earn $250k/year. In total, I estimate robotaxi costs to be $276.42/day, or $1.15/mile. Note that I did not attribute include any R&D costs for FSD training, head-office employees also supporting this initiative in this estimate. Let's assume those costs are fully diluted in their FSD vehicle sales/cost. SUMMARY If you put revenue and costs together, I estimate a gross profit of $0.32/mile, for a gross margin of 23%. There are ways that Tesla can improve this: - Automate charging - Reduce remote operators/robotaxi - Reduce roadside assistance/robotaxi - Reduce vehicle production cost - Reduce vehicle down time: faster charging, more efficiency etc. to yield more trips/day - Increase price - unlikely given the fierce competition in this commoditized market As it stands, robotaxi will not be a material contributor to Tesla's overall business. The ridesharing/taxi market is too small given the size of Tesla's business today. Real value of FSD, IMO, comes from one of the following things happening: - Greater FSD penetration of Tesla's vehicle sales - Greater FSD penetration of Tesla's current vehicle fleet - FSD licensing deal with other OEM(s) - FSD driving greater demand for Tesla's vehicles The golden scenario, where Tesla can get robotaxi price so low as to displace other forms of transportation, seems very unlikely to me. This is akin to 20M cars/year in 2030 and building a colony on Mars in 5 years. Overall, however, starting a new business off with a 22% margin is not bad, especially because there are many, many ways to improve that number further. It will ultimately come down to how well and how fast FSD can improve and expand.

@KMillstone329 @Adventuring_RE @MayorToddGloria I live a block away. Rundown is a questionable adjective to use for the neighborhood.

@Adventuring_RE @MayorToddGloria This once beautiful place is now run down and let to rot. Spent time last spring at Scripps Inn and it was sad to see how rundown the place and everything around It was. Amazing part of S.Calif. Coast

I can’t imagine why the people who live in La Jolla wouldn’t want this destroyed by @MayorToddGloria policies. 👀 A thread 🧵

@constans @ImpulsiveDoge Took my dad 8 months and dozens of trips to the local social security office to finally start receiving regular payments after he was issued his first payment. Anecdotal, but def not 100% certainty.

@ImpulsiveDoge SS’s essence is its reliability— people always get their checks with 100% certainty

Do not rewrite legacy code I cannot stress to you how much you do not want to rewrite legacy code Only a 25 year old would think this was a good idea

@thricedivine @elonmusk “Seconds least reliant state”

@elonmusk $153 $ Billion $ of our money went to California.

@WallStreetApes For what it’s worth, as a surfer who’s stepped in plenty of dog shit while running out to the water, i support enforcing the dog & leash rules along with cleaning up the homeless and crackheads.

American is getting a ticket in Los Angeles, California for walking his dog to close to the water on the beach He shows there are literally people doing drugs within eyesight and the cops dont care. They ticket him for walking his dog instead of them This is Democrat leadership

@MdeZegher Lee Vining, CA got top votes as well…any updates there?

You vote for it, we build it tesla.com/supercharger-v…

If I’m an insurance company with any exposure in Philly, I’m immediately cancelling all policies effective at halftime.

Starbucks pregame commercial with AC/DC making me bullish on $SBUX

@realEstateTrent Have the company you run setup a dependant care program so your company can contribute up to $5k annually towards childcare. Write off for the company. And don’t have to claim it as an employee benefit. Page 57 here… irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p5…

If you run a business, why isn’t the cost of childcare a tax write-off? Could not do my job if I had to watch my kids all day, which makes it a business expense, no?

@GrulkeLamonte My guess is Whisper White?

Finishing up some incredible Level 5 drywall details. If you can guess the color of this white, I will build you a house!

@ThinkAppraiser Just did this exact sq footage in San Diego for $13k.

I just got quoted $7000 to demo the roof of a 1000 square-foot home Just for the demo . Said it would take a week. Then got quoted $12,000 to install the new roof which would take 1.5 weeks That seems high, right?