KingSolomonMine

$MSTR has generated ₿63,410 of BTC Gain YTD (~$5.1 billion) and now holds 3.9% of the BTC network.

@MerlijnTrader Ah cause there is still 40 billion more coins to print .

UNREAL: David Schwartz: "XRP maxis are wrong." The man who built the network. The man who asked why it isn't already $20. Now calling out his own community directly. This is not FUD from the outside. This is a warning from the inside. What does Schwartz know that XRP maxis don't?

@fatbaldguyracin They jogged or galloped him hard everyday. They had him ready, maybe a little to much.

It’s like clockwork

the puma is scratched?

@Tinky47flat So Baffert says he is not going to the lead in a interview, same as the owner of Six Speed? What if there is no pace to run into ? That put So Happy and Danon Bourbon on the lead walking? Maybe Pavlovian

‡ Kentucky Derby 152 "Invert, always invert." – Charlie Munger Perhaps an emerging star will assert himself on Saturday, and win the Derby decisively. But on first, and even second-glance, I'd say that it appears to be a more open race than usual, With several horses seemingly in the mix as I write this (early Friday morning), the first five horses in the early betting sit between 5/1 and 9/1, and the handicapping exercise is further complicated by an array of questions associated with the obvious contenders. Given the vexing nature of this year's edition, I chose a handicapping strategy based on the above quote. The late Charlie Munger, author of the quote, was an extremely successful investor and businessman, best known for his decades long, close association with Warren Buffet. What Munger was referring to is a mental model that he regularly employed called inversion. He would use the model in order to scrutinize potential investments before he made them. In its essence, inverting a problem means thinking about what would have to happen for you to fail, and then avoiding all, or as many of those things as possible, in order to succeed. Put another way, inverting a problem can help to expose blind spots that optimism may obscure. As a pedantic aside, Munger's model was derived from the 19th-century German mathematician Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi, who advocated for solving problems by approaching them backwards. This mental inversion model can, as you might gather, be effective over a wide variety of disciplines, and applied to countless specific problems. As it happens, handicapping challenges are one example, and because there are more unknowns in the KY Derby than any other race run in the U.S. (e.g. none of the runners are proven over the distance, etc.), and the field is exceptionally large, it strikes me as a very good fit for mental inversion, especially given how open this year's edition appears to be. So, instead of first focussing on which horse, or horses I like the most, I sifted through the field in no particular order, and thought about the challenges faced by each horse, and any associated question marks. What I was left with were three that appear to face the least number of daunting hurdles, and seem most likely to overcome them. More specifically, as this is a handicapping exercise, I chose to eliminate from consideration those horses that either failed to visually impress me in training, and/or carry questions into the race that render their odds unpalatable. Note that the odds will change somewhat over the ~30 hours to post time, but hopefully not substantially enough to alter my views of the obvious contenders as value propositions. *** Note that the analysis is in post position order. ➡️ Renegade The current favorite at 5/1, Renegade was an eye-catching winner of the Arkansas Derby, and had kicked off his 3yo campaign seven weeks earlier with a comfortable win in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa, at the expense of The Puma (3rd). But the latter was stepping up off of a debut sprint win, and switching from the fast Gulfstream surface, to a deeper and slower surface. So the 6 length differential may not have been an accurate gauge, a view supported in part by The Puma having run very well, and faster, in his two subsequent starts. The field that Renegade beat in the Arkansas Derby appears to have been decidedly weak, especially given the belated admission by Mark Casse that Silent Tactic, which finished second, had been suffering from a foot issue, an ailment that was apparently serious enough to also cause him to be scratched from the Derby. That revelation further suggests that Renegade may have been flattered by the bare result, no matter how visually pleasing it may have been. Then, speaking of feet, we recently learned that Renegade has been suffering from cracked heels, and apparently for some time. He is shod with 3/4 shoes, which help to relieve some of the pressure, and according to Todd Pletcher, that was also the case in the Arkansas Derby. Horses often can and do "live" with cracked heels, and in some cases, the condition can be managed over long periods. Cigar, for example, a horse that put together one of the sport's greatest winning streaks, suffered from them. But that is not to suggest that there is nothing to worry about, as no matter how good a farrier may be, cracked heels present a vulnerability, and to a particularly important part of a horse's anatomy. In terms of his training, I would say that Renegade has generally looked good, but at least a couple of others in the race have impressed me more. His pedigree suggests that 10f. should be in his range. Given all of the above, coupled with his inside post position draw and relatively low odds, it's easy for me to look elsewhere. If he wins, I'll tip my cap to the connections. But he has plenty of questions to answer, and the Derby is a tough enough race to win when everything goes smoothly, and that hasn't been the case with the morning-line favorite. ➡️ Albus I've written positively about this colt previously, and you can review my reading of his pedigree through this link: x.com/Tinky47flat/st… Albus is a late foal, which literally won't turn three until two weeks after the Derby! That suggests that on one hand, he likely has further room to improve physically than his (months) older rivals, but on the other, he is currently playing "catch-up", and for that reason is arguably disadvantaged at this relatively early stage of the racing season. I have no doubt that he will improve over the coming months, and expect that if given the opportunity, he will likely prove to be better yet as a 4yo. But that potential won't help him on Saturday, which is why I am somewhat sorry that his connections, who also have Incredibolt in the race, didn't choose to take a more conservative route with Albus. He strikes me as the type that would have benefitted from the targeting of a later "big" race, like the Travers, which would have allowed him to take smaller steps along the way. Having said that, and assuming that he is ridden patiently, I would expect him to be "running on" at the finish. It seems quite unlikely that he could win, but despite the fact that his sire, Yaupon, was a sprinter, his bottom-line, physical type and stride all suggest to me that he may well be capable of getting the 10f. trip. The reason that he is such an outsider in the betting pool, despite having won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in good style, is that it came back a notably slow race (83 Beyer figure). And although horses do occasionally improve significantly in the Derby, several of the principals have already recorded 100+ Beyer figures, which means that even if none of them were to run any faster, Albus would still need to improve at least ~15 points, which would be equivalent to roughly 10 lengths. Put another way, if the winner were to record a 107, Albus would need to improve by 24 points on the Beyer scale, which is equivalent at 10f. to 15 lengths. A very tall order, indeed. One small mitigating factor relating to the slow time in the Wood is that Albus appeared to race somewhat greenly when he hit the front, but that wouldn't be sufficient to suggest that he would likely have run significantly faster otherwise. Given all of the above, I would hope and expect that Albus will be ridden patiently, and pass horses over the final three furlongs of the race. Even if that were to happen, it may not be good enough for him to even come close to placing. But I wouldn't rule the possibility out completely, and as I consider him to be a likable, promising, and underexposed horse, I expect to use him underneath in some gimmick wagers, just in case he were to take a big step forward at long odds. ➡️ Intrepido A longshot with two big strikes against him: his pedigree suggests that 10f. is very likely to be beyond his best, and he recorded a silly-fast half-mile workout (~:45), about which his trainer, Jeff Mullins, was none too pleased. Not easy to imagine him passing runners through the stretch. ➡️ Litmus Test See this recent post of mine for my (negative) assessment: x.com/Tinky47flat/st… ➡️ Right to Party Appears to be well-overmatched, and even with his one-run style, I'm not confident that he will relish 10f. There are other longshot closers that I prefer as possible "underneath" horses. ➡️ Commandment Undefeated through three starts this year, it's hard to knock Commandment. He clearly has a very good racing attitude, given his two narrow, hard-fought wins in the Florida preps. His pedigree suggests that 10f. should be within his range, and he arguably won the strongest of the major prep races, with The Puma and Chief Wallabee finishing narrowly behind him in the FL Derby. Having said that, I have preferred the way that some of the other main contenders have trained, and he is also a muscular, powerfully built colt, which gives me more of the impression of a miler type, than a 10f. horse. I can't fully fully discount the chances of a fighter like Commandment, but given my visual impressions of him, and his 7/1 odds (as I write), I'm inclined to try to beat him. ➡️ Danon Bourbon An underexposed, lightly raced, and undefeated Japanese-raced colt, Danon Bourbon does have an American pedigree, and has moved fairly well over the Churchill surface. But this will be a huge step up in class, and I'm not confident that 10f. will prove ideal. He is an interesting entrant, and a bigger, more impressive physical type than the other Japanese entrant. I wouldn't argue with those who choose to use him underneath in gimmicks, but he will face too many serious challenges for me to be optimistic about his chances. ➡️ So Happy Much as I would like to see a horse with smaller connections, which sold for relatively low prices multiple times before racing, step up and win on a major stage, I am skeptical that So Happy will prove best suited to 10f. His sire, Runhappy, was a Champion sprinter, and though he is out of a Blame mare, his second-dam is by Gilded Time, and traces to other speedy influences. I wouldn't be sad if he were to prove me wrong, but even if he were to improve yet again, I suspect that the final furlong will present a problem. ➡️ The Puma I've written several times previously about this horse, and you can read through the link below why I am skeptical that he will prove as effective over 10f. as he has been from a mile to 9f. x.com/Tinky47flat/st… The Puma is a very likable colt, and has displayed an excellent temperament both in training, and racing. He appears to relish his job, and is a game and genuine sort. The problem that I have with him as a betting proposition revolves around his particular distorted action, coupled with his muscular build (see the above linked post for details). It is a combination that is not often found in American horses that stay beyond nine furlongs on dirt tracks. Some may consider it to be a positive that he has raced wide in his recent races, the suggestion being that he might well have finished even better had he been able to save ground. But while that is true as far as it goes, there is another lens through which to view it. His rider took the overland route in each of his last two starts in order to avoid losing precious momentum, and now, facing a much larger field, the danger of being stalled, or stopped, increases. So unless Javier Castellano is able to work out a perfect trip, he may be faced with a very difficult choice: either hope for an opening while racing close to the inside, or again rally wide on the final turn. And if he were to choose the latter, it would place an even greater premium on stamina, and increase the risk that his action may work against him inside the final furlong. The Puma's pedigree does suggest that 10f. should be within his range, and I like the way that he has trained since arriving at Churchill Downs. But while there are always anomalies to be found in the racing game, I'm going to stick to my original analysis, in which biomechanics trumps pedigree, and let him win at 8/1 without me, if he is able to overcome, and stay the trip. ➡️ Wonder Dean It's really good for the game that the Japanese continue to send horses to the U.S. for major races, but It would surprise me if Wonder Dean were to prove as serious a Derby contender as Forever Young. Though he ran very well in the UAE Derby, the horse that he caught and ran away from, Six Speed, failed to stay, so the resulting illusion was arguably flattering. There is plenty of stamina in his (Japanese) pedigree, but he is a relatively small horse, and I would have needed to have been exceptionally impressed by his training at Churchill in order to jump on his bandwagon. I wasn't, so I'm from Missouri (the "show me" state 😀) on this colt's chances. ➡️ Incredibolt The other Riley Mott horse, like his stable-mate Albus, broke out in a relatively slowly run prep-race, and is a late foal (April). His pedigree suggests that 10f. may be within his range, but it isn't a certainty. He has looked good in training, but like his stable-mate, would need to take a very big step up to contend. An interesting longshot to consider using underneath in gimmicks, but quite an unlikely winner. ➡️ Chief Wallabee One of the more interesting runners in the race, and for several reasons. Lightly raced, and therefore underexposed, there is no reason why he couldn't take a step forward on Saturday. His trainer, Bill Mott, was not entirely happy running him in the Fountain of Youth off of a maiden win, yet the horse performed extremely well. He again ran well in the Florida Derby, but those two narrow losses were the apparent catalyst for the "blinkers on" equipment change. Some have argued that in contrast to Commandment, Chief Wallabee doesn't have the guts to win a hard fought big race. But I would argue that such a conclusion is premature, at best. I'm old enough to have watched the Champion Alysheba give a similar, though even stronger impression through his first 10 starts, over which he recorded only one win against a weak maiden field, six narrow second-place losses, and one DQ (in the Blue Grass, no less). He subsequently won 11 of 15 starts, including the Derby Preakness, and BC Classic, and eight of the wins were by less than a length! Mott admits that adding blinkers is never ideal in a big race, but there is no evidence from what I have seen of Chief Wallabee training that the change is likely to cause any problems (e.g. rankness). And speaking of training, I consider him to be one of the three horses that have given the most favorable impressions in the mornings at Churchill. I'm referring to galloping, as the workouts are, unless particularly worrying or brilliant, relatively unimportant. I don't see any reason why he shouldn't stay the trip, though it's rarely a sure thing with American pedigrees, given how stamina has been de-emphasized over recent decades. I consider Chief Wallabee, 9/1 at this writing, to be one of the three most likely winners, and he certainly appears to be coming into the race in fine form. ➡️ Potente Similar to The Puma, I am skeptical that Potente will stay 10f. well. I wrote in-depth about him in the post linked below. x.com/Tinky47flat/st… ➡️ Emerging Market If I were pressed to choose just one horse, this lightly raced colt would be the one. Currently sitting at 11/1 (on Friday morning), there is a possibility that he will ultimately be overbet as the "buzz" horse. If that were to happen, it would impact my wagering choices, but not my basic assessment. Seen through the lens of the aforementioned Munger inversion model, I concluded that Emerging Market has the least number of important hurdles to clear. Yes, he has only raced twice, and that is not an ideal foundation for the intense challenges presented by the Derby. But there are a number of positives which, to my mind, outweigh any related concerns. He has already demonstrated that he is talented and determined, and his trainer, Chad Brown, has confirmed that the colt has a fine temperament, and is typically very relaxed. He will be facing a much stronger field than those which he previously beat. But as an underexposed April foal, and given his apparently excellent racing attitude, I don't see why he shouldn't move forward. Having already won over 9.5f., and given his pedigree, I see no reason why 10f. should present a problem. That impression has been reinforced by his consistently excellent training, including the gallop-outs in his works. Put simply, I see fewer worrying question marks, and more potential upside to Emerging Market on Saturday, than any other horse in the field. ➡️ Six Speed I've written several times about Six Speed. The "skinny" is that I am skeptical that he will stay the 10f. trip. You can read my detailed thoughts through the two links below. x.com/Tinky47flat/st… x.com/Tinky47flat/st… ➡️ Further Ado This colt is a tricky one to assess. His big breakout performance in the Blue Grass at Keeneland was both visually impressive, and fast (106 Beyer). But he beat a weak field, and the 28 day turn-around does raise possible regression questions. I don't worry about the fact that he recorded his two best figures at Keeneland, as he won the KY Jockey Club at Churchill last fall, and also ran well in the Tampa Bay Derby. That's not to say that he doesn't have an affinity for Keeneland, but I wouldn't use that as an excuse on Saturday. He is also another of the horses that has impressed me in his gallops, and it's worth noting that he has displayed particularly good energy. That doesn't mean that he couldn't possibly regress off of his recent, fast race, as I do consider that to be a real concern, but it does at least hint otherwise. Further Ado ran fast at two and three, so the ability is there. He also has better tactical speed than some of the other top contenders, and that could prove to be a real advantage. But the other side of that coin is if he were to be placed too close to a strong pace, or move prematurely, it could render him vulnerable when stamina takes center stage inside of the final furlong. A serious contender, I'd say, and despite the lingering questions about a possible regression, and his current 7/1 odds, I would place him in my top three. The main reason that I would be inclined to prefer the other two (EM and CW), is that they appear to me to be more likely to take a step forward on Saturday. ➡️ Golden Tempo Way back in December I wrote about this colt, and suggested that he might actually prove better suited to turf racing, if given the opportunity. You can read that post through the link below. x.com/Tinky47flat/st… Golden Tempo strikes me as being a cut below the best of the crop, and like Renegade, he is dealing with cracked heels on both front feet. I'd be surprised to see him place, let alone win. ➡️ The AEs that drew in... I don't view any of the "Also Eligibles" that drew into the body of the race as being serious contenders, or even interesting longshots for betting purposes. ✳️ Good luck to all! 🐎

Kentucky lost to 14-seed Oakland with the #1 recruiting class in 2023, having the number 1 overall point guard, #1 small forward, and #1 center. They also had TWO top-10 draft picks on the bench. Recruiting — with no postseason success — is exactly why we “ran him out of town.”

@ScatoniSureShot Strike the Gold wasn’t bad

Zenyatta.

@BigBlueCarti Looks like he can run the zoom!

@tyran_stokes come to Kentucky for this reason alone. To be remembered forever! Unless you are scared lol. m.youtube.com/watch?v=THBu7S…

@nolimitcole_14 Could we possibly get him back for a 5th year?

I miss Otega Oweh already

@thestaggieman ?

4/20 Kentucky Oaks & Derby Predictions Derby 1. White Abarrio 2. Knightsbridge 3. Percy’s Bar 4. Silent Tactic 5. Renegade Oaks 1. Rachel Alexandra 2. Rags to Riches 3. Zany

@HorseRacingKK Blinkers on

Chief Wallabee finishing five furlongs in 1:00 outside Gilded Bandit. Splits: 24.80, 36.60, 48.20 1:00/1:12-126.60

Incoming...

Think Even ₿igger.

@NA20071975 @Capper_RMac He did it 2 races in a row , ducked to inside like he was trying to teach him something for derby , Jose must see something in the horse, he sure could have got on one of the 3 favorites.

?? He’ll be 30-1/35-1. How is that overrated? Jose made the most inexplicable move out of all the derby preps by ducking 6 paths inside BEFORE the 1/2 finishers were bearing out. Watch the head… he moved earlier. Still finished only a length behind.So many of these have raced so few times…tough to tell their true identity

Golden Tempo is a little overrated to me heading into the Kentucky Derby. Doesn't it bother his supporters that he had plenty of pace in the Louisiana Derby and moved at the perfect time, and still couldn't close the door?

@uptownfunkywalk @WHR @iradortiz Stupid move. Has he ever been on the lead?

@WHR @iradortiz Why did they send Sovereignty ????

WHITE ABARRIO takes it! 😲 Sovereignty and Journalism are beaten by 7yo White Abarrio under @iradortiz in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap!

@FanDuel_Racing @iradortiz @C2RacingStable @SaffieJosephJr Why would you put the 3 on the lead?

WHITE ABARRIO!!!!!!!!!!! An epic Oaklawn Handicap as Sovereignty and Journalism dueled throughout before being run down by 7 year old White Abarrio under @iradortiz in the @C2RacingStable colors. An emotional @SaffieJosephJr trains.

@keenelandlefty Yep Journalism looks great. Sovereignty looks like he needs a race, but just my opinion. I know nothing lol

Let me say this about the rivals at oaklawn: Sovereignty is the better race horse. Has always been, and I think will continue to be as the year progresses. Anyone who tells you otherwise up until this point is biased. That being said, if Journalism is going to beat him, today is the day. This is going to be the best shot he’ll ever have.

Impossible to blockade Bitcoin.

🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: Iran just got EMBARRASSED on the world stage, they were BLUFFING all this time and even some of our own Fake News FELL for it "China just watched billions of infrastructure go up in smoke and Russia watched all the defenses that they sold not even work once!" Now Iran has a QUARTER TRILLION dollar rebuild "We sailed two destroyers straight up the gap under zero enemy fire. NATO navies could have joined in, they didn't!" "Remember all the talk about Iranians collecting TOLLS? More BLUFFING. Apparently they weren't able to collect a single toll." "They couldn't pull off the processing because they have no banking, internet, or comms! It was just a couple of Iranian sailors sitting on a dock with their hands out." 🤣 "The Iranians strapped for cash, not just to pay for their salaries, but it's gonna cost them a quarter trillion to rebuild."