Long | e/acc

4 JUNE 1985. THREE TRADERS MOVED OVER $1 BILLION IN A SINGLE DAY. THE YOUNGEST OF THEM WAS 24 his name was William Wong, a dealer in Hong Kong. no algorithms, no internet. positions lived in phone calls and hand signals the pound was falling and he sat on a £20 million open position. sell it all at once and the whole market sees you, the price runs away before your order fills so he lined up other dealers to sell small pieces at the same moment. then he raised five fingers, casually, like calling a waiter. the market never noticed a thing. Wong got out with his profit whole on camera he says: "I'm here to make money. if the pound is falling, I'll profit from it" the footage is from Billion Dollar Day, a 1986 documentary that followed the three of them, London, New York and Hong Kong, through one working day 30 minutes of raw footage. save it and watch to the end, no Wall Street movie comes close to the real floor ↓

Gavin Baker: “It would be bullish for AI infrastructure if the model market shifts away from expensive flagship models to cheaper models. This would shift margins from AI labs to cloud providers.” This is bound to happen. Look at the chart below. It looks like Opus 4.7-4.8 class is the sweet spot for most of the current workloads. Apparently, paying more for Fable 5 doesn’t bring big enough performance jump to justify higher prices per token, as it captures only a small portion of the spending. This means that, when cheaper models categorically achieve Opus 4.8 level performance, we can expect spending to shift toward them. When this happens, token prices will collapse, enterprises will use more tokens, run more experiments, and become more productive and innovative. There will be many of these models. Meaning, they’ll essentially be commoditised so those who make the margins will be the cloud providers that run these models at scale. Long AI infrastructure. $MSFT $AMZN $GOOG $NBIS $CRWV

Absolutely beautiful rant about AI in Linux Kernel from Linus yesterday: I realize that some people really dislike AI, but this is an area where I'm willing to absolutely put my foot down as the top-level maintainer. Linux is not one of those anti-AI projects, and if somebody has issues with that, they can do the open-source thing and fork it. Or just walk away. AI is a tool, just like other tools we use. And it's clearly a useful one. It may not have been that "clearly" even just a year ago, but it's no longer in question today. There are other questions around AI (like what the economy of it will actually look like in the end), but "is it useful" is no longer one of those questions. Anybody who doubts that clearly hasn't actually used it. Yes, it can also be a somewhat painful tool, both for maintainer workloads and just from a "it keeps finding embarrassing bugs" standpoint. But the solution is not to put your head in the sand and sing "La La La, I can't hear you" at the top of your voice like some people seem to do. The solution is to make sure those LLM tools _help_ maintainers instead of just causing them pain. There's no question on that side. We're not forcing anybody to use it, but I will very loudly ignore people who try to argue against other people from using it. And no, AI isn't perfect. But Christ, anybody who points to the problems at AI had better be looking in the mirror and pointing at themselves at the same time. Because it's not like natural intelligence is always all that great either. The kernel project has been and will continue to be about the technology. Sure, the social angle of working on open source is important and often a very motivating part of the project, but in the end that's a side benefit, not the _point_ of the project. This is *NOT* some kind of "social warrior" project, never has been, and never will be. In the kernel community we do open source because it results in better technology, not because of religious reasons. And so we make decisions primarily based on technical merit. Not fear of new tools. Linus

Sam just lit the fuse. He has no idea what he just unleashed. Elon’s about to make Sam regret his troll post. Even more bullish on $SPCX 🚀🔥 LFG

homeboy you're the one sellling public market investors on short-term space datacenters

WHAT THE F*CK ARE YOU AFRAID OF - Death : We’re all gonna die. - Bankruptcy : You can make it all back. - Shame : Everyone will forget in a week. - Rejection : It happens to everyone. - Failure : It’s part of the path. - Judgment : They’ll judge anyway. - Losing people : Not all are meant to stay. - Making mistakes : You’ll survive them. - Taking risks : Regret hurts more. Live every day like it's your last day.

Raising taxes is NOT the answer. Cracking down on waste, fraud, and abuse IS.

The market is finally catching up to the fact that every company will need to build their own agent platform. "Own the Context. Rent the Intelligence." "Build your own learning loop." But how do you do this? you need to: 1. Own your orchestration layer. If the model you are using today is taken away, will you still be able to operate at a similar level using other models? 2. Own your data. Do you have full control of institutional knowledge, or as satya put it - retain ownership of your organization's memory, traces, feedbacks, decisions, and institutional context. 3. Own your evals. Do you have a (private) way of measuring what "good" looks like? Because all else equal, that's your moat. The reality is that there is no way of confronting the reverse information paradox without building your own system. The company "veteran" is the system around a "generalist" model: instructions, tools, workflows, memory, evals, and the accumulating fixes to recurring failures.

The biggest scam humanity has collectively accepted as normal, according to Claude