Nerd🤓
3.7K posts
@Nerd_0ne
On the hunt for asymmetrical returns📈
$INFQ Infleqtion. Remember the name Went public in February. Cold-atom quantum technology. Their systems are already deployed by: > U.S. Department of Defense > NASA (hardware on the ISS right now) > UK Government > $NVDA Recent catalysts: > $2M DARPA contract (HARQ quantum software program) > $1M U.S. Navy RF signal contract > Quantum hardware delivered to the International Space Station > Safran partnership for GPS-free military timing 2026 revenue guidance: $40M Market cap: $2.5B Early. Speculative. Real.
This is so crazy it literally looks fake.
Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."
$LMND Earnings look good. But I can’t help but notice they removed the “OpEx vs In force Premium” chart that they used to show on their reports🧐 Probably because of a ballooning sales/marketing expense making it less attractive😅 Now we get IFP vs employee count 🍋 👍
⚠️ This is the first major Bitcoin warning signal in 3 years. $BTCUSD is still trading at a weekly discount, and it’s bounced here every time since 2023 and structure remains bullish, so I’m betting on a bounce. ✅ But for the first time since Dec 2021, the monthly BX just flipped 🔴. Last time that happened, Bitcoin dropped 60% in a year. If $100K breaks and BX stays red, I’d expect a sharp correction toward $70K–$75K over the next 6 months. Short-term bullish. Long-term cautious.
