PrincessNemezis
1.7K posts

PrincessNemezis
@PrincessNemezis
Data is my weapon, instinct is my edge 💜
Katılım Nisan 2025
51 Takip Edilen50 Takipçiler

🚨 The CEO of BlackRock just gave the world 2 futures
📉One leads to $40 oil
📈The other leads to global recession.
There is nothing in between...
Larry Fink the CEO of BlackRock.
Here's exactly what he said:
🟢 Iran normalises + Hormuz reopens = oil back to $40
🔴 Iran remains a permanent threat = oil at $150 for years
🛢️Oil at $150 for long = global recession
The math is brutal:
📌 Brent today at $110 already 47% above pre war levels
📌 Ras Laffan 2-4 years to rebuild
📌 Hormuz: blocking even Chinese ships
📌 Saudi backup pipeline: already maxed out
We are not near $40
We are moving toward $150
And the man managing $10 trillion just said what happens after that.
If you want to know the full macro breakdown + the math , Do not miss my latest article.
Link 👇
open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…
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@FinanceLancelot reported and blocked, youre an fucking idiot who spread fake news
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BREAKING: 🇹🇷 Turkey says negotiations between the 🇺🇸 U.S. and 🇮🇷 Iran have begun.
We're saved boys!
Jim Cramer@jimcramer
Trump put goes kaput
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@SecScottBessent @FT What’s up, soft dick? Aren’t you manipulating oil anymore? Are you scared of the consequences that will catch up with you anyway?
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By publishing this explicitly false story, the @FT has officially become tabloid trash for market participants.
Despite my direct, on-the-record denial of ever having advocated, explored, or espoused the idea that Chancellor-Bank of England statute serving as a prototype for a Treasury-Federal Reserve relationship, FT journalists manufactured a story with the headline, “Scott Bessent praised Bank of England as model for tighter oversight of the Federal Reserve.”
These pathetic journalists have clearly fabricated a story to give the impression that both I and the Trump Administration are setting “about restructuring the relationship… at a time when President Donald Trump has launched an unprecedented assault on the world’s most important central bank.”
Their mendacious assertion is based on vague statements from unnamed “financial industry executives familiar with the matter.”
In short, FT has literally manufactured an entirely fake policy position for me and the Administration. Other than furthering a maliciously false narrative of dysfunction and divisiveness, it baffles the mind as to why they would shred their already diminished journalistic credibility.
Over the past 10 years, I have written more than 20,000 words opining on the Federal Reserve decisions, personnel, structure, and modifications. Nowhere have I ever mentioned this ridiculous notion.
The Governor’s letters to the Chancellor have proven to be a useless and perfunctory device.
There is much to be said about the storied Bank of England, but any recreation of its operating framework on this side of the Atlantic has never been contemplated.
The shameful journalists and editors at the FT are shocking in their meretriciousness, lack of standards, and general intellectual libertinism. It is the worst tradition of Fleet Street to manufacture news rather than report on it.
They have brought irredeemable shame to their parent organization, Nikkei Inc., with whom I had previously held excellent relations.
In 2025, I laid out a comprehensive 6,000+ word review of each and every policy reform that I believe should be adopted by the Federal Reserve.
Read my actual, real thoughts on and proposals for Federal Reserve reform at the International Economy: international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Besse…
Financial Times@FT
FT exclusive: US treasury secretary Scott Bessent discussed tightening the US Treasury’s oversight of the Federal Reserve by adopting elements of the Bank of England’s model ft.trib.al/6dgGvkh
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@SecScottBessent @FT I want to see now how you’ll keep oil below $100 when everyone piles into WTI haha 🤡🫵
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@C_Barraud @LiveSquawk @neilksethi @VMRConstancio @NCheron_bourse @agnostoxxx @fastrevealnews @MikaelSarwe @enlundm @Newsquawk @ForexLive @dlacalle_IA @vtchakarova @AnilVohra1962 @GFXFTs @Sino_Market @fxmacro @PiQSuite @MikeZaccardi @NicolasGoetzman @Mayhem4Markets @CryptoeconRyan wow you list all shit accounts
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Some insights on Iran’s situational assessment nearly a month into the campaign:
A. Iran is interested in a ceasefire. However, from its perspective, there is a worse scenario than a ceasefire, namely, a temporary ceasefire. Following the 12-day war in June, senior Iranian officials and commentators warned that it would only be a temporary ceasefire and that the U.S. and/or Israel would resume attacking Iran in the near future. Tehran is not prepared for endless cycles of war and therefore insists on ending the current campaign with guarantees that no further attacks will occur.
B. Surrender has never been part of the Islamic Republic’s lexicon and is not on the table even a month after the outbreak of the war. Regardless of the Iranian leadership’s current assessment of its situation, it is not willing to concede to American demands.
This is also tied to the identity of Iran’s current leadership, which is largely composed of veterans of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose formative experience is the Iran–Iraq War.
Iran’s leaders belong to hardline circles that not only viewed the 8-year war as a national trauma shaping their strategic outlook, but also adopted the revisionist narrative of a “stab in the back,” according to which Khomeini was forced to “drink the poison chalice” after being betrayed and misled by politicians led by Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who compelled him to accept a ceasefire with Iraq.
Will the new leadership in Tehran nevertheless be willing to make certain compromises that Iran rejected prior to the war? Possibly. Will it eventually conclude that it cannot bear the costs of the war and become willing to make even more far-reaching concessions? Perhaps. But for now, this is clearly not on the agenda.
C. To this should be added Tehran’s current assessment, which is based on several assumptions:
1) They believe that, after the initial blow they suffered in the early days of the war, they have managed to adapt to the situation.
2) They assess that there is currently no significant threat to regime stability. The growing number of reports citing intelligence assessments and leadership circles in Washington and Jerusalem that the war will not lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime, alongside the adjustments made by security forces to attacks on IRGC bases, Basij headquarters, and internal security forces, reinforce this assessment in Tehran.
3) Tehran has adopted a “mindset of achievement” (and perhaps even a sense of victory), based on the belief that not only will the Islamic Republic survive the war, but that it can leverage its asymmetric capabilities—foremost among them the (partial) closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on critical infrastructure in Gulf states—as a strategic leverage.
This could enable Iran not only to return to the pre-war status quo but also to establish a new regional architecture based on recognition of its sovereignty over the strait, and possibly even the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, taking into account Iran’s regional standing and its capacity to inflict damage on the global economy.
4) In Tehran’s assessment, the two main escalatory options available to the U.S. are strikes on Iran’s energy and electricity infrastructure, and a ground operation to seize control of the strait or one of the islands (Khark or Abu Musa).
Iran does not ignore this possibility, but believes that its own escalation could at the very least disrupt American plans.
In the event of strikes on Iranian infrastructure, Iran has the capacity to retaliate in ways that would severely damage critical infrastructure across the region.
In the case of a ground operation (even if successful), it is doubtful that it would allow for the immediate reopening of the strait. Seizing Khark Island would expose U.S. forces to Iranian fire, and it is uncertain whether the high economic cost to Iran would translate into immediate Iranian concessions, as Tehran may be able to absorb the economic consequences for weeks or even months while continuing to impose high costs on U.S. forces, regional states, and the global economy.
Even a successful operation in the strait itself would not necessarily prevent Iran from continuing to threaten tanker traffic, for example, by drones, and this alone provides a level of deterrence that could prevent the resumption of activity in the strait even in the event of a successful U.S. military operation.
In sum, Iran is open to diplomacy, negotiations, and possibly even significant compromises—but without relinquishing minimum demands, including guarantees against the resumption of hostilities, sanctions relief (which could be framed as reparations), and the preservation of certain nuclear capabilities, especially missile capabilities.
If an agreement with the U.S. cannot be reached based on Iran’s position, Tehran is prepared to continue a prolonged war of attrition, based on its assessment that its resilience and stamina are greater than those of the U.S. and its regional allies. In any case, from Tehran’s perspective, the cost of total capitulation remains far higher than the risks of continuing the war.
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@Ferbsidian @aganstwallst Color doesn’t matter, you’re an idiot
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@aganstwallst Volume candles have red and green colors for a reason dumbass.
And that was the closing bell.
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🚨 Insider Alert 🚨
Just 15 minutes before Trump made his announcement, there was unusually heavy volume in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
Right after Trump spoke, the market spiked hard, and in a matter of minutes, insiders walked away with millions of dollars in profits
This is NOT normal
Something is seriously wrong here

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The war in Ukraine is not America's war, nor the European Union's war, because Ukraine does not belong to the European Union, and yet the European Union is helping Ukraine. America's narrative and the way they twist the facts is pathetic.
Fuck, not to mention that NATO is a defensive alliance, not an offensive one. Besides, it wasn't the European Union that attacked Iran.
@SecRubio = LOSER
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@Osint613 Bullshit. WTI is being manipulated by Scott Bessent and they're keeping oil below $100. Larry knows all about it perfectly well. They just want to load up the street with longs so the manipulation can keep spinning.
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Multiple missile alerts in Israel this morning. Feels like Iran is sensing the end of the war is near, and trying to set a victory narrative.
Israel Radar@IsraelRadar_com
❗️ Israel's current estimate: Trump may announce Iran ceasefire by Saturday (N12 News)
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@mb_ghalibaf I don't know why you're limiting yourselves at all now, since you have nothing to lose anyway.
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Channel 14 Claims:
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said, "You took all the money, and now your soldiers are suffering because there are no salaries. Give back what you stole." - per Senior Iran Analyst Dror Balazada
He added: "I don’t trust you to stop the Americans at Kharg and Hormuz."
Balazada notes the comments show Ghalibaf is trying to hold his jihadi coalition together and is pushing for a deal with Trump after repeated US and Israeli strikes on the IRGC.
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🚨 IRAN OPEN TO U.S. OUTREACH, READY TO LISTEN
An Iranian source says Washington has initiated “outreach” and Tehran is willing to consider sustainable proposals to end the conflict.
While no formal negotiations have occurred, Iran is open to plans that safeguard its national interests, guarantee it won’t pursue nuclear weapons, allow peaceful nuclear use, and lift sanctions.
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