Richard D. George

@HormuzLetter @tleilax___ But, but but….. Trump said that their military capability was completely decimated.

BREAKING: Iran has struck the Kuwait National Petroleum Company North Pier crude oil export facility at the Mina Al Ahmadi hub in Kuwait, with the facility on fire and smoke visible on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Kuwait relies on this hub for 90% of its economy.

@MiloshOffical @CommodMkt @BloombergTV @FerroTV @annmarie We shall see.

You're assuming both factors are temporary, but the market is correctly pricing deeper structural weakness. First, the "peace deal headlines" argument cuts both ways. If crude repeatedly sells off on ceasefire rumors, that suggests traders believe geopolitical risk premium is a significant part of current prices. If a conflict de-escalation eventually does occur—even imperfectly—that risk premium permanently disappear. Calling it "jawboning" doesn't change the fact that markets price probabilities, not certainties. Second, China's crude demand is no longer the one-way growth story that drove oil bulls for two decades. China's economy faces persistent real estate weakness, slowing industrial activity, accelerating EV adoption, and a plateauing population. What appears to be a temporary import decline may actually be a reflection of structurally slower oil demand growth. The bullish assumption is that China snaps back; the bearish view is that China has already passed peak demand growth. Third, even if China rebounds and geopolitical fears persist, global supply remains far more responsive than it was in previous cycles. U.S. shale, OPEC spare capacity, and the potential return of previously constrained barrels create a ceiling on prices. Demand only needs to disappoint slightly for inventories to build. Finally, if the bullish thesis depends on dismissing the primary reasons for price weakness as "unsustainable," that's the main warning sign. Markets don't care whether a catalyst is fair or unfair, they care whether the underlying trend is real. The fact that oil keeps failing to hold rallies despite wars, sanctions, and production cuts indicates that fundamentals are weaker than bulls understand.

I joined @BloombergTV's @FerroTV and @annmarie to discuss the current energy market and why the abundance illusion is fading. During the initial phase of the Middle East disruption, we saw a coordinated release of strategic reserves, from the U.S., Europe, Japan, alongside China and other Asian consumers flexing their substitution and drawing inventories, particularly products. That created weak oil prices and the illusion that the market was well supplied. However, crude oil prices are the noise, and product prices are the signal. The 3-2-1 Crack reached an all-time high of $70/bbl this morning. At $85/bbl Brent that’s $155/bbl product basket. And remember no one consumes crude oil, only products. This is why crude oil prices are the noise. Phase 2 of the US-Iran conflict is now starting from record low inventories, with multiple pressure points across the system — the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea — alongside significant refinery outages. In fact, I’d argue I’ve never seen an energy environment this stretched. At the same time, there’s a major disconnect. Despite the pull back in crude oil prices, commodities are still the best performing asset class, up 34% ytd with the petroleum index up 81% ytd. Scarcity and debasement are still a core driver of investment returns despite the themes being underinvested and uncrowded trades. Commodities are the best place to hide with tech and equities poised for a correction. Own HALO (Hard Assets Local Operations) via commodity indices. Watch the full interview here: bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

@MiloshOffical @CommodMkt @BloombergTV @FerroTV @annmarie Continued false (and arguably illegal) jawboning by the administration about a peace deal being imminent. The CTA’s reacted to the headlines each and every time. China unexpectely stopped importing crude. Neither of these are sustainable.

Jeff, since March you've been pounding the table on the greatest energy crisis of our lifetime. Yet now that crude has repeatedly failed to confirm the sky-high price targets, oil has conveniently been downgraded to "noise." Funny how the world's most important energy benchmark only becomes irrelevant when it disagrees with yours's and every Energy Bull forecast. If crude is noise, then what happened to the oil shortage that was supposed to be driving the entire thesis?

@CENTCOM @staunovo CENTCOM has become another propaganda mouthpiece, like Axios.

On July 16, U.S. forces successfully destroyed the Chah Bahar Shahid Kalantari Port surveillance tower, part of a maritime surveillance network along Iran’s Gulf of Oman coastline used for decades by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to track and target commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The destruction of the tower directly degrades IRGC’s ability to coordinate attacks on innocent civilian crew members. Furthermore, the strike protects freedom of navigation in regional waters for all vessels, except for ships attempting to violate the ongoing U.S. naval blockade against Iran.

@csfellz @jrex035 @Rory_Johnston Correct. And I don’t claim to be a “Genius”.

@RichardDGeorge5 @jrex035 @Rory_Johnston well, since you are an 'Energy Professional', I guess you are entitled to your own opinion :')

RE: Hormuz offset flows An error I still see people making months into tracking Hormuz oil flow is thinking you can add the entire ~7.5 MMbpd of combined Saudi Red Sea + UAE Fujairah flow as an offset to get back to that ~20 MMbpd pre-war Hormuz flow level. But those offset routes didn't start at zero and were shipping ~3.5 MMbpd of oil prewar. You get to add ~4 MMbpd to Hormuz flow from offsets, not 7+ MMbpd.

@csfellz @jrex035 @Rory_Johnston I agree with Rory on several things but not this.

@RichardDGeorge5 @jrex035 @Rory_Johnston Cushing has been at 20 million barrels tank bottoms for weeks now. Non-tourists understand this. The SPR is a policy decision however, if the Epstein wants it emptied, he can order it. Look, here's my source:

@csfellz @jrex035 @Rory_Johnston There are Minimum Operating Inventory levels. Non-tourists understand this. Cushing is probably very close. SPR MOI estimates are somewhere between 280 and 300. Will be soon.

@RichardDGeorge5 @jrex035 @Rory_Johnston "it is not possible to move a thing from a place to another place" This isn't the matrix, my guy, you can move liquids.

@csfellz @jrex035 @Rory_Johnston Not actually possible.

@jrex035 @Rory_Johnston sure, but do you know that for a fact? It is possible to suck out all 300 million barrels, it would just destroy some of the caverns - it's a decision whether to do that. My question is whether the draw rate is also by choice or by necessity

@KristjanBackman @HFI_Research Soon

@HFI_Research It doesn't matter until a refiner can't get a barrel, then it will really matter.

Goldman on oil.

OECD distillates inventories are plunging to record-lows as refinery capacity remains low while demand remains resilient! Despite lower commodity pricing and political jawboning, crude and petroleum product inventories continue to consistently drain in many regions. 🛢💰

@staunovo 110 total (into the Persian Gulf and out of it?)

Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz climbs slightly ahead of Trump blockade deadline At least 22 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to MarineTraffic data, ahead of President Donald Trump’s 4 p.m. ET deadline when he says a US blockade will take effect. A total of 14 ships entered the Persian Gulf — 11 cargo vessels and three tankers. An additional eight ships left the gulf, consisting of four cargo vessels and four tankers. These figures remain largely in line with the subdued crossing rates seen in recent weeks. Before the war, roughly 110 vessels passed through the strait each day on average. #oott cnn.com/2026/07/14/wor…

@JavierBlas Complete B.S.

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Iran: "I think that there’ll be disruption [for oil], but the disruption is going to be much smaller than people expected."

@DA28030 @CRUDEOIL231 “bear” ??

@CRUDEOIL231 The real bear case is that Trump is completely done with negotiations and goes all in on destruction of anything remotely close to the SOH including landing marines on SOH islands once they have been B52'd into rubble.

I’m still sitting here thinking this whole setup isn’t nearly enough to flip everything. Look, oil mkt was heavily tilted short, and the street was already pricing in a technical dead-cat bounce, so this violent short squeeze isn't exactly catching anyone off guard. I’m not betting the house that Trump drops a TACO print automatically. The ball is 100% in Tehran's court. With the US officially shouting out a maritime blockade refresh, Iran has to punch back. Sitting on their hands right now means lighting whatever leverage they have left on fire. If Iranian barrels get choked out, the textbook playbook for them is to hold their leverage hostage by capping everyone else’s inbound and outbound lanes. Where their pain threshold actually sits, though, is anyone's guess. But let’s be real—flimsy headline blockades, symbolic drone strikes on US outposts, and minor tanker skirmishes aren't going to move the needle anymore. If Iran actually goes hot and starts hammering GCC infrastructure or executes a bulletproof, total lockdown of the Red Sea—bc let’s face it, that hasn't cleanly hit the tape yet—that’s your structural runway to macro escalation. If they push it that far, even Trump will eventually have to map out an exit strategy. You guys can talk about the math all day, but trust me, I run the same models. The only reason my PnL took a hit in that final month was because that exact math completely flatlined on me. Strictly speaking, if a hull catches fire and Hormuz goes dark again, the tape should be screaming $150 oil. But the street has massive scar tissue from watching the market effortlessly fade geo-headlines in the past, so the money is naturally going to gravitate right back toward that short-bias default. We need a smoking gun here—an absolute tail risk print that no desk can handwave away. Either Iran puts real kinetic heat on regional infrastructure to cause undeniable physical damage, or the US-Tehran back-and-forth morphs into total, unhedged warfare. Without that kind of tail-event acceleration, keeping crude pegged at these highs is going to be a massive uphill battle. Bottom line, looking at the tape over the last few months, the current catalyst mix just isn't getting the job done. Though to be fair, we’ve got two massive wildcards sitting out there—one bull, one bear. The bull case: China. Beijing knows the West’s strategic buffer is completely running on fumes. They could easily weaponize the tape, push crude into a massive squeeze, and put the squeeze on the US administration. Granted they left that trade on the table last time, but you can’t cross it out. The bear case: Trump's TACO. The exact monster everyone in this room is staring at. Let’s be real—Trump could jump on social media right now, print a single line saying 'Not everyone has to pay,' and you'd instantly see $4-5 washed out of crude. When the dust settles on this squeeze, macro funds are going to need a bulletproof thesis to stay long the front of the curve. Everyone on the street still has PTSD from the consecutive VaR shocks and the TACO traps we just went through. Holding paper longs here takes a serious amount of delta-courage. We need a total smoking gun here. It might sound completely unhinged, and ppl can point fingers at me all they want, but let's be real—haven’t we all taken enough pain over the last few months to learn our lesson? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, and you're officially a co-conspirator. Let's watch the tape play out. #oott #iran

@mitchellvii Crack spreads are high because of strong demand and limited refining capacity globally. It is the oil prices that are mis-priced. Should be (and will be) much higher.

WHY ARE WE STILL PAYING ALMOST FOUR DOLLARS A GALLON WHEN OIL IS NEARLY $70 A BARREL?! Oil is trading in the seventies right now. Go back and check the history books. The last time crude sat in that range for any real stretch, gas was closer to two dollars and sixty cents a gallon. Today the national average is sitting near four dollars. Something does not add up, and Americans know it. There is an old saying in this business. Prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather. Economists even have a name for it. The rocket and feather effect. When oil spikes, the pump reacts overnight. When oil drops, that same speed mysteriously disappears. The industry has a story ready every time. They say they are still selling expensive oil bought weeks ago, so prices cannot fall yet. Fine. But watch what happens the moment tensions with Iran flare up. Oil ticks up four or five dollars a barrel and somehow pump prices jump forty or fifty cents overnight, on oil the stations already had sitting in the ground bought at the old cheaper price. You cannot have it both ways. Slow to fall because of old inventory, instant to rise regardless of it. That is not a supply chain. That is a shakedown. Trump has pushed harder than any president in a generation to open up drilling, cut red tape and increase the actual supply of American energy. That is supposed to be the whole point. More supply, lower prices, real relief for working families filling up their trucks. Families are doing the math at the pump every single week. They are not confused. They can see a rocket going up and a feather coming down, and they are done pretending it is a coincidence.

@BarakRavid @JavierBlas @axios You should be in prison for your calculated oil market manipulation. Nothing you say is true. You are truly despicable.

🇺🇸🇮🇷Regional mediators push to salvage U.S.-Iran deal. My report on @axios axios.com/2026/07/09/us-…

@HFI_Research and yet WTI is down on the day….

Wow during market hours. Ok.

@Mankosmash @HFI_Research ??

@HFI_Research The US couldn't afford to "suck the US dry" 🙄 we have a lot more money than they do.

Welcome to the wall. Crack spreads continue to move higher despite the violent move in crude. Product shortage is going to hit imminently with spreads screaming tightness everywhere. The world is going to suck the US dry of every barrel it has.

@HFI_Research There is a higher chance that I could kill an antelope by pushing a tree over on it.

59% chance according to Polymarket that the Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by year-end.

@OpenSquareCap Highly unlikely that they “called”.

. . . at least "someone" wants a deal so badly . . .

@mattbuford @ekwufinance ?????

Chris Wright in 2025: Biden’s SPR release pace was irresponsible... it damaged the caverns. - Biden: 180 mb / six months ~1 mbpd - Trump: 172 mb / four months ~1.4 mbpd Biden’s release damaged 2/4 caverns. US SPR is stored in salt caverns; oil out means water in, which dissolves salt and weakens the structure, especially when done fast. It’s quite possible that US SPR refill will be slower due to damaged caverns.