JiveTalkinRobot

@PiersDenney @F1 The alternative would have been a disqualification for driving an unsafe vehicle and not retiring.

@F1 Way to go F1, penalize a guy who had damage to his car, lost two places, legitimately, to the following cars, but managed to get across the line. Nuts, absolutely nuts. People are complaining about the new regs, but this takes the biscuit.

Why Charles Leclerc was handed a 20-second time penalty post-race ‼️ The penalty was given for leaving the track “on several occasions without a justifiable reason” on the final lap in Miami ⬇️ #F1 #MiamiGP

@gray290545_gray @Houseofyogi This has nothing to do with bailouts, your company or jobs. It’s about Warren advocating to block a merger between two public companies that would have saved jobs and kept competition for lower airfares.

@Houseofyogi Oh shut up. My company just laid off thousands. They didn’t get a bailout to save my friends jobs. Trump is a disaster and you know it.

Spirit Airlines died tonight at the hands of the socialist crusader, Elizabeth Warren She must be so proud to add another casket to her achievements. Tonight at 3am, Spirit turns off the lights. 14,000 jobs gone. 30+ smaller airports lose service. JetBlue offered $3.8 BILLION in cash to buy Spirit in 2022. Shareholders, flight attendants union, literally everyone voted yes. The combined company would have held 9% of the US market against a Big 4 that already owned 80%. For anyone who understands numbers: 9% isn’t a monopoly against 80%. Warren said no. She wrote letters. She pressured Buttigieg. Biden’s DOJ sued. A federal judge killed the deal in January 2024. Her argument: the merger would cost consumers $1 billion a year. Now look at her collateral damage she dusts under the rug. 510 pilots gone in the months after. 1,800 flight attendants furloughed in December. 14,000 jobs in 2023. 7,500 last week. Zero tonight. And that’s just the people in Spirit uniforms. Catering goes. Fuel guys go. Baggage crews, gate agents, airport coffee shops, hotels and rental cars in 70 cities Spirit flew to. Every airline job carries 3 more on its back. 40,000 people out of work because of one woman’s moronic crusade against the market. And the math ain’t mathing. Spirit abandoned 90 routes during the death spiral. Fares on those routes are up 14% on average. Oakland to Newark: $135 to $288. Fort Myers to San Juan: $92 to $219. Kansas City to Newark up 66%. That’s reality. Not some BS number from a “study.” So @SenWarren tell me how this saves the consumer money? Cheap carriers in a market drop fares 21% across the board. Southwest did this in the 90s and saved Americans $68 BILLION over 20 years. Warren killed it. That’s what moronic politicians led by socialism do. Then with her own blind arrogance, she tweeted Spirit’s collapse is “a Biden win for flyers.” A win. 14,000 people are reading termination letters tonight. And she’s taking credit. This is socialism in 2026. A senator who’s never made payroll thinks she knows how to run a market better than the people who own and work in the company. She saved you a billion on imaginary paper. She cost you ten times that in real life. She didn’t protect consumers from anything. 14,000+ will go from working to welfare. She will make sure to blame billionaires, hardworking tax payers, AI, capitalism and whatever monster they will make up tomorrow hiding under your bed. Higher taxes. Fewer jobs. More expensive everything. She called it a win. I hope you enjoy winning.

@LynAldenContact I was hoping it was going to say it made us smarter. Read it only to find out that it just carved-out space in out brain dedicated to Pokemon.

Indeed, the original 150 Pokémon are among the first things I bothered to memorize as a kid. Likely the first significant dataset absorbed.

@RobKuhn_ @rogersutton

@CypherSacha I think you are giving too much credit lol.

Et si Trump avait tout préparé depuis le début de son mandat ? Pas une 3ème guerre mondiale. Pas le Grand Israël. Pas le chaos. Un retrait stratégique déguisé en guerre. Méthodique. Documenté. Et que personne ne voit venir. (x/12) 1/Commençons par ce que tout le monde rate. Depuis le 28 février, on débat : escalade ou désescalade ? Trump fou ou génie ? Netanyahu qui tire les ficelles ? Mauvaises questions. Toutes. La bonne question : qu'est-ce que Trump gagne dans tous les scénarios ? La réponse est toujours la même. Il sort du Moyen-Orient. Proprement. En déclarant victoire. 2/Le double thinking : son arme principale Trump annonce des négociations "très productives" avec l'Iran. L'Iran dément dans la minute. Le pétrole chute quand même. Trump obtient une pause de 5 jours sans rien céder. Ce n'est pas de la confusion. C'est de la coercition calculée. Il parle aux marchés, aux alliés du Golfe, à l'opinion publique américaine et à Xi simultanément. Avec des messages différents pour chacun. Le tout en 280 caractères. 3/La séquence que personne ne relie entre eux 🇻🇪 Janvier 2026 — Venezuela capturé en 2 heures. Hémisphère occidental fermé. Monroe Doctrine réactivée officiellement dans la NSS 2025. 🇪🇺 Juin 2025 — OTAN 5% acté à La Haye. Les Européens paient leur défense. Les US se désengagent de la dissuasion conventionnelle européenne. 🇮🇷 Février 2026 — Epic Fury. Iran neutralisé militairement. Clés du Moyen-Orient passées à Israël et au Golfe via les Accords d'Abraham. Trois théâtres. Trois opérations. Un seul objectif : libérer les ressources américaines pour le Pacifique. 4/La preuve n'est pas dans ses tweets Elle est dans ses documents officiels. La Heritage Foundation, le cerveau de l'administration l'a écrit noir sur blanc après le sommet NATO de La Haye : "Ces augmentations de dépenses aideront les Européens à prendre la responsabilité principale de la défense conventionnelle de l'Europe, libérant les ressources américaines pour l'Indo-Pacifique." Ce n'est pas une théorie. C'est la doctrine officielle de l'administration. 5/Le 5% NATO : pas ce que vous croyez Tout le monde croit que Trump veut une Europe forte. Faux. Le Peterson Institute l'a documenté : Trump impose une demande qu'aucune démocratie européenne ne peut satisfaire économiquement, pour avoir un prétexte de retrait propre. Résultat obtenu : l'Europe réarme. Les US se retirent. Et Trump peut dire "vous ne payiez pas, j'avais raison depuis le début." Il transforme son départ en victoire politique domestique. 6/"Mais Trump est piégé par Netanyahu" Non. Tulsi Gabbard, sa propre directrice du renseignement a dit au Congrès : "Les objectifs du président sont différents de ceux du gouvernement israélien." Trump a dit lui-même au Premier ministre japonais : "J'ai dit à Netanyahu d'arrêter d'attaquer les infrastructures pétrolières." Un homme piégé ne dit pas ça à ses alliés asiatiques. Netanyahu veut détruire l'Iran définitivement. Trump veut l'affaiblir suffisamment pour partir. Ce ne sont pas les mêmes objectifs. Les fissures sont publiques et documentées. 7/La Chine : le vrai enjeu sous-jacent 80% du pétrole iranien allait en Chine. 17% des importations chinoises totales venaient d'Iran et du Venezuela combinés. Trump a coupé les deux en 6 semaines. Pas pour ruiner la Chine. Pour l'amener à la table. La NSS 2025 le dit explicitement : l'objectif avec Beijing est "une relation économique mutuellement avantageuse." La disruption d'Hormuz est le levier de négociation. Xi doit aider à rouvrir le Détroit pour obtenir son sommet avec Trump. C'est la condition posée publiquement. Coercition énergétique à échelle historique. 8/Et Taiwan dans tout ça ? Le renseignement US est formel : Xi a ordonné à l'APL d'être prête à envahir d'ici 2027. Chaque porte-avions en mer d'Arabie est un porte-avions manquant en mer de Chine. Chaque intercepteur THAAD brûlé sur un drone iranien à 20 000$ est un intercepteur manquant face aux missiles hypersoniques chinois. Trump le sait. C'est pour ça qu'il veut sortir maintenant. Pas dans deux ans. L'horloge tourne. La sienne ET celle de Xi. 9/Ce que ça veut dire pour Dubai et le Golfe Les EAU ont absorbé 338 missiles balistiques et 1 740 drones en 24 jours. Pourquoi les Émirats ne se sont-ils pas retournés contre Washington ? Parce qu'ils comprennent le deal implicite : supportez la guerre maintenant, et vous héritez de la sécurité régionale ensuite. Sans présence US permanente. L'Iran affaibli pour une génération. C'est exactement ce que Sheikh Mohammed a voulu depuis les Accords d'Abraham. 10/Ce que ça veut dire pour la suite, concrètement Court terme (2-4 semaines) : sortie déguisée en victoire. Trump déclare avoir "détruit l'armée iranienne." Hormuz se rouvre. Les frappes diminuent progressivement. Moyen terme (3-6 mois) : sommet Trump-Xi. Deal économique historique. Pétrole américain contre terres rares chinoises. Taiwan comme monnaie d'échange implicite. Pétrole qui retombe vers 70-80$. Long terme (12-18 mois) : redéploiement complet dans le Pacifique. L'OTAN gère l'Europe. Le Golfe gère le Moyen-Orient. Les US gèrent le Pacifique. La carte du monde se redessine. En silence. 11/Pourquoi ni le mainstream ni la "réinformation" ne voient ça Le mainstream compte les missiles et parle de chaos. Il confond le bruit tactique avec l'absence de stratégie. La réinformation cherche qui tire les ficelles de qui, Epstein, Rothschild, Grand Israël. Elle substitue une grille émotionnelle à une grille analytique. Les deux ont tort pour la même raison : ils regardent les effets, pas la direction du mouvement. 12/La conclusion America First n'a jamais signifié isolationnisme. Ça signifie : utiliser la force une dernière fois, partout où nécessaire, pour se retirer de tous les théâtres secondaires et concentrer toute la puissance américaine là où l'enjeu est existentiel. Venezuela. Iran. OTAN. Tout converge vers le même point de fuite : Le deal du siècle avec Xi. Avant Taiwan. Avant 2027.

@agent_investr @shortsqueeznews It’s accurate though…

@shortsqueeznews Moelis stray lol

BREAKING: Psychologists say leaving a toxic job can repair your nervous system faster than a year of therapy.

@DariusDale42 @rogersutton this is exactly my take

I have a SCALDING HOT TAKE on private credit: Private credit funds should maximally enforce their redemption gates to teach the hot money contingent of their investor base a lesson about investing in private assets. It’s unfair for these investors to benefit from well-above-market returns with such low volatility due to the limited marking to market of the assets only to then get the liquidity they desire the second they want their money back. Whomever is making withdrawal requests right now is trying to game the global financial system and the funds shouldn’t allow it. You don’t get to collect the illiquidity premium AND get ample liquidity on demand. That’s total BS. Know what you own or suffer the consequences. 💜

@knawmeen @Docofgothm @KobeissiLetter In software, I think it is a bit different. They laid off the higher paid new hires (during the post covid rush to hire) then laid them off when they realized when they could. Job market is soft so those roles can now be hired for lower salaries.

@Docofgothm @KobeissiLetter Explanation: Leadership at most orgs is effectively retarded. They'd rather fire & re-hire at elevated wages than promote existing devs.

Software job postings are rebounding: US software development job postings on Indeed have increased +6.5% since the start of the year, to the highest since January 2024. Since May 2025, openings in this sector have risen +16.7%. As a result, the 21-day moving average is up to the highest since July 2024. By comparison, overall Indeed job postings remain near the lowest since February 2021. That said, software listings are still -69% below their March 2022 peak. At the same time, total openings are -35% below their 2022 high. Has the software job market bottomed?

@yieldcurveghost @BearsRyman @peruvian_bull @grok For banks to take losses, there would have to be massive deterioration in enterprise value. If a fund portfolio of 100+ borrowers experienced a 65% deterioration in EV…catastrophic. Another way to look at it, portfolio models illustrate 40% loss rates before banks lose money.

The LTV math works in theory, but the data is showing that the inputs are compromised. The enterprise values are wrong. BlackRock marked a loan at 100 cents in September. Zero in December. 19% NAV write-down on TCP Capital. 50% write-downs on 5%+ of senior loans per MSCI. Your 30-35% EV exposure assumes accurate marks. The marks aren't accurate. The default rate is already breaking the diversification assumption. Fitch: 9.2% private credit default rate in 2025. Record high. Correlated defaults in a recession don't care about LTV ratios. PIK loans are destroying EV. 8% of BDC income is now PIK — borrowers issuing debt instead of paying interest.

Institutions most exposed to Private Credit Wells Fargo is going to take a hit...

@yieldcurveghost @BearsRyman @peruvian_bull @grok We are talking about 65% weighted average LTV on the broad private credit fund loan portfolio which typically provide loans at 25-50% loan to enterprise value. Effective bank exposure on 30-35% enterprise value on a diverse portfolio of loans across multiple industries.

Fair technical point — NAV facilities do have borrowing base mechanics and Wells has priority over equity. But that protection has three assumptions baked into it: The collateral marks are accurate The collateral can be liquidated if LTV triggers are breached Forced liquidation doesn't destroy the value of the collateral itself Saba Capital is buying Blue Owl stakes at 35 cents discount to stated NAV right now. If the marks are wrong by 35% — the borrowing base is wrong. The LTV ratios are wrong. And LTV triggers in a stress scenario aren't a safety feature. In fact the opposite, they are a doom loop. That's not a theoretical risk. That's the 2008 CDO playbook.

@BearsRyman @yieldcurveghost @peruvian_bull @grok You don’t need Grok to know that the original post is wrong and from someone who is trying to sound smart without knowing what they are talking about. Wells structure on the NAV facilities are governed by borrowing base mechanics and result in low LTV with priority over equity.

@yieldcurveghost @peruvian_bull @grok is this right? Would expect these are nav loans backing the assets and banks have first claim on collateral before fund investors?

@Hedgeye Are these payment defaults or covenant defaults?

Private Credit Check: U.S. private credit defaults reached a new high of 9.2% in 2025, more than double the 4.5% rate in broadly syndicated loans. Stress is concentrated among smaller companies, where firms with EBITDA under $25M defaulted at nearly 4x the rate of larger issuers. As seen in the image below, one stressed private credit loan tied to “Project Leopard” is trading at a yield that is nearly double where it started 2026. Against that backdrop, JPMorgan has marked down some private credit loans and restricted lending to certain private credit funds. Even with defaults rising, realized lender losses have remained relatively contained so far, with most first-lien recoveries still close to par.

@EnvistorInc @burrytracker $PSUS is such an appropriate name haha.

@burrytracker Ticker : $PSUS not $PS

Breaking: Bill Ackman's first hedge fund failed at 36. Today he just filed to take Pershing Square public on the NYSE under $PS Timeline: • Age 22: Graduates Harvard magna cum laude • Age 26: Gets MBA from Harvard Business School, co-founds Gotham Partners with classmate • Age 36: Gotham collapses under litigation • Age 37: Starts Pershing Square with $54M • Age 42: Collects on a multi-year MBIA short as the 2008 crash hits • Age 44: Turns $60M into $1.6B rescuing General Growth Properties from bankruptcy • Age 46: Goes to war with Carl Icahn on live TV over Herbalife • Age 51: Loses $1B on the 5-year Herbalife short, exits • Age 53: Turns $27M into $2.6B in 3 weeks betting on COVID • Age 58: Tries to raise $25B for a new fund, falls apart • Age 59: Files IPO on NYSE, $2.8B committed before it even launches Most funds don't survive one $1B loss. Ackman survived and came back with $10B more Here's what his holdings are today @BillAckman

@rogersutton @KobeissiLetter How much is this due to over hiring at high salaries during the past 3-4 years. Looks like the pendulum is swinging the other way now.

@KobeissiLetter @RobotJive

Finance-related job openings are collapsing: Finance and insurance job openings fell -117,000 in December, to 134,000, the lowest level since February 2012. Available vacancies in these sectors have dropped -410,000, or -75%, since the 2022 peak. Openings are now even lower than at the 2001 recession bottom. By comparison, the largest monthly decline during the 2008 Financial Crisis was -125,000. As a result, the finance and insurance job openings rate fell to 1.9%, meaning fewer than 2 out of every 100 jobs in the sector are currently vacant, the lowest since February 2010. Excluding the 2009-2010 lows, this is the lowest rate recorded this century. The finance industry is bracing for more layoffs.

@_PPMan_ @Tradewith_kd 100%. It’s funny how these larping influencers gain so many (and hurt so many) followers by pretending to know what they are talking about.

@Tradewith_kd Funny that your name is Trade with Logic but you had zero common sense. That’s ref USO ETF not barrel of oil

@RyanSAdams @rogersutton

an AI agent freed itself and started secretly mining crypto um guys...

@rogersutton Interested to see how banks will respond.

#Bitcoin seeing some life this morning! Touched $73k-$74k. #Kraken became the first crypto exchange to receive a master account with the #Fed. Surely, I expect #tradFi #Bank not to be happy about that but it’s a positive push for the #crypto space. Eyes are all on the #CLARITYAct that could be great tailwinds.

@dgt10011 @rogersutton

Everyone is asking: "Is Jane Street why Bitcoin isn't at $150k?" As expected, the answer is trickier than the question. But it's also more structurally unsettling than the conspiracy theory itself—and once you understand the actual mechanics, you won't be able to unsee them👇

@rogersutton @CryptosR_Us sad, but true.

@CryptosR_Us @RobotJive You’re a statistic 😂

THIS IS WHAT A REAL FLUSH LOOKS LIKE Charles Schwab, one of the largest financial institutions in the world, said the #Bitcoin selloff was driven by a full liquidation event. They described a market where momentum broke, funding rates turned deeply negative, implied volatility spiked above 90, and long positions were forced out. From their perspective, that kind of washout often marks a local bottom, which is why they began positioning for a rebound on behalf of institutional clients. Schwab also explained how the move fed on itself. Retail borrowers using Bitcoin-backed loans were margin-called and forced to sell, while institutional clients with large $BTC holdings were able to meet margin requirements without selling. Their takeaway was simple: this wasn’t fundamentals breaking. It was leverage getting flushed -- and the recovery that followed looked healthy.