Roth Overlord

@Steven_Kiel @WallStWary @mike_astarita @BATMongoose @steep_slopes @Mike10947310 @TLS_Invests @Steven_Kiel so thesis hasn’t changed for you then

@WallStWary @Roth_Overlord @mike_astarita @BATMongoose @steep_slopes @Mike10947310 @TLS_Invests Even if the post-trial decision comes, there will still be a few years for an appeal, so this sets them up to sell that claim along with the other patents.

$FNCH is down today on filing Chapter 11. But they only have one employee and trial costs are de minimis at this point as it just depends on the judges ruling, afaict. The biggest overhang for Finch has been a multi year lease they signed while they were still fully operational — my read is this is more about the lease and renegotiation or breaking it than anything else (eg I see nothing on PACER)

Guys war's over - Iran's conditions are out. Lots of middle ground here Say what you want about Iran, but at least they had the decency to release that during the Globex futures close. Respect for Trump.

@WallStWary @mike_astarita @BATMongoose @steep_slopes @Mike10947310 @TLS_Invests When you say timing - regarding the trial or a decision by FNCH mgmt? Has upside changed? Shouldn’t this be bullish if they aren’t forced to sell

@mike_astarita @BATMongoose @steep_slopes @Mike10947310 @TLS_Invests $FNCH / $FNCHQ I think its a strategic move to cap the lease obligation. Timing indicates some sort of resolution soon. They can't be forced to a bad sale. Lowball bids can be rejected. Risk isn’t forced sale, it’s management choosing a bad deal for speed/certainty.

@Keith_Wasserman @markpinc Are you at all worried about the decline of LA and jobs/companies leaving and the trend continuing/accelerating?

With a little assistance from my friend ChatGPT… 1) We just went through a silent pricing crash (without headlines) •Multifamily values are down 15–30%+ from peak (2021–early 2022) •Cap rates expanded ~150–300 bps depending on market •But unlike 2009: •There hasn’t been mass bank liquidation •Sellers are finally capitulating selectively You can now buy deals at basis levels not seen in years, often: •Below replacement cost •At or near pre-COVID pricing This is the first real reset since the GFC. ⸻ 2) Massive distress pipeline is building (but not fully realized yet) The real story is the wall of debt, not current pricing. •Trillions of CRE loans maturing 2025–2027 •Huge portion: •Floating rate bridge debt •Underwritten at 3–4% rates, now sitting at 6.5–8%+ Many owners: •Negative cash flow •Can’t refinance •Are extending and pretending 👉 What this creates: •Forced sellers over next 12–36 months •Banks will eventually push assets out •LPs are tired → GP recap pressure This is very similar to 2009’s setup… just delayed. 3) New supply is about to fall off a cliff •2022–2024: record deliveries (especially Sunbelt) •2025+: starts have collapsed due to: •High rates •Construction costs •Financing unavailable 👉 What happens next: •Supply glut → absorbed over 12–24 months •Then… supply vacuum This is exactly the setup you want: Buy when supply is peaking → own when supply disappears 4) Rent growth is about to reaccelerate Right now: •Rent growth = flat or slightly negative in oversupplied markets But forward view: •Supply drops sharply •Population still growing (immigration + household formation) •Homeownership remains unaffordable 👉 Result: •Rent growth likely returns 2026–2028 in a meaningful way You’re buying: •At low NOI today •With embedded NOI growth coming ⸻ 5) Interest rates are likely peaking Even if rates don’t crash: •The uncertainty is already priced in •The shock has already happened •Future moves are more likely: •Stable → slightly down 👉 This matters because: Multifamily is a duration asset Small rate improvements = big value increases Example: •6.5% cap → 5.75% cap = ~10–15% value gain •Combine with NOI growth → 20–30% upside without heroics ⸻ 6) Institutional capital is on the sidelines (for now) •Blackstone, Starwood, etc. slowed acquisitions •Many funds are overallocated or dealing with redemptions 👉 That creates: •Less competition •More negotiating power •Ability to structure creative deals But: Once clarity returns → they flood back in You want to buy before that happens ⸻ 7) Replacement cost is way above current pricing •Construction costs up ~30–50% since 2020 •Financing new deals is extremely difficult 👉 Meaning: •You’re buying existing assets below what it costs to build new •That creates a hard floor on long-term value ⸻ 8) It’s not 2009—but risk-adjusted returns may be similar Key difference vs 2009: •Less systemic collapse •More “slow bleed” distress But the opportunity is arguably better because: •You have time to be selective •You can structure deals (seller carry, pref equity, rescue capital) •You’re not competing with panic capital

Best time to acquire multifamily properties since I started Gelt in 2009.

@thmoneycircle Yep

Holy shit Claude + Excel is crazy

@TheRealEstateG6 Not only that but there’s no introspection. Sadly haven’t hit rock bottom and reversed yet. Not sure it ever will

Complete non-starter to start a business in California or NY these days Not only have they proven to be hostile to businesses, but they've proven that they'll change the rules retroactively Can't run a business with that kind of unknown liability always hanging over your head

@HowardRoark90 @ycombinator @downloadaltx @SamadiRyan Yep

@ycombinator @downloadaltx @SamadiRyan Claude in Excel literally already does this RIP whatever this startup is

Alt-X (@downloadaltx) builds AI agents that turn real estate deal documents into fully built underwriting models in Excel automatically, with every number cited back to the source. Congrats on the launch, @SamadiRyan and Michael! ycombinator.com/launches/PjC-a…

@TMTLongShort @GunsBuns161615 No worries

@Roth_Overlord @GunsBuns161615 Sorry compliance up my ass so can’t discuss on here :(

Most of you think this is the ranting of a toddler. But I’m telling you this is narrative building for what comes next. Not chess, not checkers, but some third thing.

@TMTLongShort @GunsBuns161615 Have an investment to run by you regarding Greenland. Can you open your dms

@GunsBuns161615 Yes

@moseskagan So what was the pitch ? Pros - becoming Supply constrained because of water conservation and other factors. Low taxes Fabs- jobs/companies coming in and high migration Cons- water infrastructure ( seems overblown) Global warming- temp increases quickly making it unbearable

Phoenix real estate people: My friends Andrew Segal & Chris DeRose are trying to convince me Phoenix is the future. To get better acquainted with the real estate scene there, am hosting an early evening meet-up on *April 9* for RE owners, brokers, attorneys, etc. Drinks, etc. on me. Location TBD, but somewhere reasonably central. To RSVP, click here: airtable.com/apphL20x4uCZzA…

@1RentalataTime Could be coming to ca next. Hopefully not.

Buckle up middle class it is going to hurt

@thmoneycircle Where ?

And just like that I'm ripping infill in FL

@otter401 @GhostofEdie @CSElmendorf So your base case is slow decline in LA. How come you didn’t just go to OC or elsewhere in so called before deciding on Florida? Or did you ?

1. I'm not optimistic things will improve in LA. 2. Construction costs haven't increased much since work has become scarce and subs are reducing their typical overhead and profit just to get jobs. But if this continues, subs and labor will leave the market and future projects will become more expensive. This is what happened in Detroit. Detroit labor rates used to be on par with Chicago. But as Detroit hit bottom, labor and subs all went to Chicago and elsewhere. Now, construction costs in Detroit are much higher than Chicago and the numbers don't pencil.

Excellent new reporting from Rogé Karma on California's everything-bagel problem, and the difficulty of overcoming municipal resistance to density in single-family-home neighborhoods. theatlantic.com/economy/2026/0…

@BarryRoland19 2. What do you consider as low ?

Major value add studios have taken the biggest hit of ~any unit type in LA 1. ED1 and no parking requirement lets you build studios for less than adjusted basis to buy and gut renovate to new condition 2. Absolute achievable rents in most submarkets still very low, even post renovation 3. No room to execute buyouts. Since these are habitability monsters, you’re gonna have to eat that risk

@ENERGY @SecretaryWright Unleash the Uinta Basin. Expedite the rail

Would love to know the real number of multi family owners underwater on their debt in SoCal right now. Bet it’s a higher number than a lot of people think.

@BeenThereCap Pretty much.

I actually am going to need to move to Florida and eventually overseas, aren't I. I don't live in New York or California. I'm just looking ahead a few steps.

@TMTLongShort Unleash the Uinta Basin

The path to deregulation is through manufactured crises. From one year ago:

@CaseyMericle @Storage_Venture Anyone that does this for industrial ?

@Storage_Venture Same but I’m charging $20,000

I said I'd never do it. I did it. I got tired of students coming to me saying they paid $10K+ for a course and didn't learn anything useful. So I built the system I wish existed when I started - from 15 years of real deals, real mistakes, and currently 12 facilities across 4 states. 8 modules. 46 lessons. 12 templates. 8 hours. No fluff. It was only for my 1:1 coaching clients. Now it's open to everyone. Link in bio.

@BarryRoland19 They didn’t account for the increasingly insane destructive policies of local govt.

You often hear people (even pros) say something like, "just buy RE in the best location and let it ride." Was just looking at a commercial property that sold in 2019 for $11.8M on Sunset and Santa Monica. This is arguably the most prime retail corner in LA right now. ~$13/SF/MO + CAM. Since the building was purchased, insane amounts of development have occurred on both sides. An Erehwon opened a few hundred feet away. A sweetgreen opened. An Alfred Coffee. And what will the net sale proceeds be to the owner, after 7 years of ownership? About $11.5M.