Selby

@SystemicStratHL Bitcoin IS a good inflation-hedge, in the long run, as with all hard assets. But it gets sold during conflict, out of necessity. The same will happen to gold if the conflict drags on, because liquidity will be pulled from these assets to buy more essential commodities, like oil.

Macro predictions and game plan. It seems I've been spot on over the past 1-2 years on general trends that played out, so I'll share what I plan to do personally. 1. BTC is going to underperform everything in the medium term. Reason: BTC has proved itself not to be a good hedge against inflation and world chaos. Nothing new is expected from the 'crypto president' and the next administration probably won't be as complacent. Also, DATs are going to have to sell their leveraged BTC at some point. It's still a long way to go, but everyone is watching and knows it will come eventually. 2. US stocks are probably going to find a reason to have one last rally to ATH or near it — just enough to trigger some final momentum buying before the rope is cut and we start the generational crash we thought could never happen again. Reason: The Iran situation is going to have a very significant impact on inflation. This will make it very unlikely for the FED to be able to cut rates in the short/medium term. Investors are going to realize that 1) stocks are overpriced (high PE ratios, leverage, etc.) and 2) there is no safety net anymore. So it will naturally fall. Then, in the medium/long term, the FED will be forced to lower interest rates, print again, and we will probably recover some — to the detriment of the USD. Game plan: > Short BTC (self-evident) > Wait for a new ATH on stocks or a few months trading near ATH with momentum funds buying in, then start buying volatility ETFs as they will compound nicely in a crash (e.g. VXX) > Buy up gold and silver on pullbacks, as they should outperform due to global instability and the medium-term resumption of money printing. Thinking about how to engineer a vault that could reflect this view, and offer some added alpha to it. Would it be something you would be interested in? Also lmk where you think I'm wrong in my view 🙏

Congratulations AG Blanche. Now you have 30 days to release the rest of the files before becoming criminally liable for failure to comply with the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

Who else knew this was going to be a rambling waste of time?🖐️ #PresidentialAddress

@kenblackwell @RealCandaceO @mtgreenee @TuckerCarlson @Nero @JackPosobiec @Timcast @megynkelly @hodgetwins You forgot to ask ChatGPT to make it concise… nobody is reading all that ai slop. Try again.

I’m done with @RealCandaceO I’m done with @mtgreenee. I’m done with @TuckerCarlson. I’m done with @Nero. I’m done with @JackPosobiec. I’m done with @Timcast. I’m done with @megynkelly. I’m done with the @hodgetwins. I’m done with the entire cottage industry that built empires on the backs of a movement and now wants to lecture that same audience like they just discovered virtue. What we’re watching isn’t some great awakening. It’s a rebrand. It’s a pivot. It’s a group of people reading the room, spotting where the next pile of money is, and sprinting toward it while pretending it’s about conscience. That’s the part that insults people’s intelligence. These are not newcomers finding their voice. These are professionals who understood exactly what they were doing when they built their platforms. They knew the audience. They knew the message. They knew the stakes. And they were more than happy to cash in on all of it. Now, with a different set of incentives, they’re suddenly above it all. Suddenly they’re the referees. Suddenly they’re the ones telling everyone else they’ve been misled. No. They didn’t discover truth. They discovered a new revenue stream. There is serious money right now in turning on the very people who made you relevant. There is attention, media amplification, and a fresh audience waiting to reward you for it. So the script flips. The tone shifts. The lectures begin. And the same people who once spoke with certainty now speak with superiority. They wrap it in big language about principles and clarity, but look a little closer and the pattern is obvious. The timing is perfect. The messaging is coordinated. The outrage is monetized. This is not bravery. This is market positioning. Meanwhile, the people actually living in the real world, the voters, the families, the ones who don’t get paid to post, are treated like props in someone else’s content strategy. Talked down to. Written off. Used when convenient and discarded when not. That’s where the real frustration comes from. And here’s what makes all of this even more absurd. They’re squandering a once-in-a-generation moment. Donald Trump is not a polished conservative intellectual. He’s not Buckley. He’s not Reagan in tone or temperament. He’s blunt. He’s transactional. He’s often crude in ways that make even his supporters wince. And yet, in the only place that ultimately matters, results, he has governed like the heir to Reagan’s legacy. He reshaped the federal judiciary in a way conservatives had talked about for decades but never fully delivered. He put forward justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade, something that for years was treated as a distant goal. He proved it was real. He pursued policies rooted in national interest, economic strength, and American leverage, not as theory, but as action. That combination unsettles people because it does not fit neatly into any ideological box. He is not a movement conservative in the traditional sense, but he has delivered outcomes that movement conservatives once said they wanted. And politics is not a clean business. It never has been. It is rough. It is personal. It is unforgiving. And it demands a level of resilience that most of the people commenting from the sidelines have never had to show. Trump has taken hit after hit, from media, from institutions, from political opponents, and yes, from people who once claimed to be on his side. And he keeps standing. They threw everything at him, and when that wasn’t enough, someone tried to take his life in Butler, Pennsylvania. That is not rhetoric. That is reality. And by the grace of God, he survived. Most people would disappear after that. Most people would step back, protect themselves, and walk away. He didn’t. So spare me the lectures from people who found a more comfortable lane the moment things got difficult. It is easy to posture. It is easy to pivot. It is easy to cash in. It is a lot harder to stand in the fire and keep going. And while all of this noise floods social media, something else is happening that people should be paying attention to. Foreign actors are pouring fuel on every internal disagreement, amplifying the most divisive voices, boosting the most inflammatory content, and creating the illusion that the country is more fractured than it actually is. They do not need to invent our disagreements. They just need to magnify them until it feels like there is nothing else. That distortion becomes reality for people who live online. It creates a collective illusion that America is coming apart at the seams, that neighbors have nothing in common, that the center has collapsed. But step outside of that bubble and it tells a very different story. Most Americans still believe in the core principles that built this country. Individual liberty. Personal responsibility. Equal justice under the law. The idea that rights come from God, not government. Those ideas have not disappeared. They are not fringe. They are the quiet consensus that does not trend on social media because it is not designed to provoke. What we are seeing online is not the country. It is a distorted mirror of it. And too many of these influencers are either blind to that or actively participating in it because it benefits them. You don’t have to like everything about Trump. Nobody does. But pretending this moment is ordinary, or that what has been accomplished is meaningless, is not serious. Some people are willing to take the hits to move the country forward. Others are just trying to make sure they land on their feet when the winds shift. And people can tell the difference. President Trump is the president we need at this historic moment. And he needs our support now, more than ever!! #MAGA

@porterstansb @Ross__Hendricks I agree. 6 months ago the GOP seemed untouchable. Now it’s a shit show. What an epic fumble.

Ross ... any idea the real reason they've lost their minds? All they had to do was: throw out the illegals, cut spending by $1 trillion, some kind of sensible entitlement reform (focusing on fraud), end white racism, murder some traffickers, and not start any global wars. Do that and they'd been in power for the next 12 years, at least. Instead? Disaster. The biggest "WTF" in American political history. I wonder if Trump will find a way to pivot. Blame it all on Hegseth. Walk away...?

Looks like we’re set up for quite the trifecta Disastrous war in the Middle East —-> economic crisis —-> radical leftists ushered into power Will be the biggest self own in American history

@capeandcowell More eggs, less bacon... everything else looks accurate.

こんにちは日本の皆さん。これがアメリカの一般的な朝食です。

@DoomerTapes I was just thinking this morning, we need to be the kind of Americans that the Japanese think we are.

The entire world looks to us, the American citizens for what to do next. Our government is not the leader of the free world, we are. We need to start using this power more responsibly and show the world what an organized people are capable of when the government fails to uphold their end of the social contract. The muslims in the UK have their own "police" enforcing sharia law on horseback, while we allow our neighborhoods to be quite literally invaded by illegals who use our tax dollars to buy houses. We need more reluctant heroes brave enough to overcome their fears of prosecution for doing things that are legal.

@DoomerTapes @ItIsHoeMath @harukaawake You do you, bro 🍻 HoeMath projects scarcity for clicks. And most of these purity extremists are likely mutts anyway. In the end it’s about quality. Be the outlier 🫡

🇯🇵 A foreign lady living in Japan argues that Japan is a "godforsaken island" and says Japanese being polite is "propaganda". She then argues that Japan should let in more African migrants and that it's "fascist" to not let them in.

Imagine a world where hard work is rewarded, truth and justice prevail in courtrooms, the government doesn’t steal your labor by debasing the currency, bureaucrats aren’t captured by corporations, and our taxes go toward critical infrastructure instead of wars overseas.

@Tektonxx @joeroganhq What very few people understand is that all universal truths are paradoxes. We created a world where we experience friction because we are from a world where there is no friction. We wouldn't know or appreciate a frictionless world without experiencing friction.

@joeroganhq This is my issue with DMT. It is meritless. No one comes back with innovation, or better ways to build houses, or how to make milk cost less. No. They come back with mediocre generalized advice. At best. Not saying entities aren't real but scarcity doesn't exist to them.

"What's the best piece of advice you've ever received from a DMT entity?"

Many Westerners, caught hopelessly in the clutches of Boomer Liberalism, believe that all their ancestors were cruel bigots. But their ancestors were simply willing to be mean to a small amount of the worst people because this is the price of a nice civilization for the rest.

Bryan Johnson reveals 5-MeO-DMT therapy outperformed every longevity protocol he’s tried "If I compare my experience with 5-MeO to having a better diet, exercising every day, sleeping well, doing sauna, and hyperbaric oxygen therapy, this was more efficacious than all of them in terms of a reset of me as a human. It’s just incomparable" "When you sleep well you feel great, when you exercise you feel great, but nothing compares to what 5-MeO did in terms of resetting me as a human"

This is central banking in a nutshell: A group of rich guys go to the king and say: "Hey, you need money for your war. We'll give you all the money you want." The king says: "Great, where's the money?" They say: "We're going to make it up. We'll write numbers in a book and that's your money now." The king says: "What do I owe you?" They say: "You pay us back with interest." The king says: "Where do I get that money?" They say: "You tax your citizens." The king says: "What if I can't pay it all back?" They say: "That's fine. We'll lend you more. Same deal." The king says: "And what do you do with the IOUs I gave you?" They say: "We use them to prove we have money, so we can lend even more money to other people and charge them interest too." The king says: "So you made up money, lent it to me, I tax my people to pay you back, and then you use my debt to make up even more money and lend it to everyone else?" They say: "Yes." The king says: "What did it cost you?" They say: "Nothing." That's literally how the Bank of England started in 1694. The Bank was formed to finance King William's war with France. The king gave the Bank a charter, granting it a monopoly on money. The king could have as much money as he wanted. The bankers could always earn interest. Taxpayers covered the bill. Now replace "king" with "United States Government" and you have the Federal Reserve in 1913. Same story, different country. It doesn't end there. 185 central banks exist in the world today. Across the globe, the governments get as much money as they want, the bankers load their pockets with interest, and the taxpayers pay for it all. Oh, and if you don't pay your taxes, they'll fine you, penalize you, or throw you in jail. The ONLY way out of this is to STOP USING THEIR MONEY. As long as you're using the money that central banks control, the central banks will have control. You have to stop giving them energy. Use a different form of money that they can't control. This is why Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin.

Life pro tip. Not enough people talk about this. The secret to having a "fulfilling" life is doing new things. Radically doing new things. Consistently. Every day. New activities, people, goals, even something as simple as trying new foods. Life feels longer when you're a kid because every day is packed with almost infinite amount of new learning. As you get older, you've already acclimated to your environment, the new inputs stop, so your perception of time speeds up drastically. You fall into routine, which is a time accelerant. If you want to feel like you have a long infinite lifespan, like you did as a child, you MUST be having new experiences, which slows time down.

Patience is the hardest part of the bear. If you study previous bear markets then one thing is consistent: time. It takes time to work through a Bitcoin bear. We've been trending down for 5 months. Major BTC downtrends of have historically lasted an average of 9 months, with the longest around 12–13 months. We end up grinding higher the majority of the time and then just get whacked down to an eventual lower low in days. The progress is slow and the damage is fast. I think our best case scenario would be a double bottom around the most recent low of $60k, and more time with excruciating sideways action. A ~52% drawdown from ATH would be the shallowest bear ever, but consistent with cycle compression. Base case scenario is a lower low, possibly around $55k months from now. 200WMA will be close to there and act as strong support with many buyers interested. Worst case scenario would be $40-45k in my mind, which would materialize if macro really turns. Even at -65% from ATH, this would still be an improved drawdown vs 2022's -77%. I don't believe we will close a monthly candle below $60k. You don't need to worry about pico bottom at all. Just set limits, chill and manifest your future upside in the years to come.

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.

Woke Ninth Circuit decides Korean spas have to let biological men swing their gear in front of women and children. The dissent is pure gold:

I was recently at Real World Crypto (that's crypto as in cryptography) and the associated side events, and one thing that struck me was that it was a clarifying experience in terms of understanding *what blockchains are for*. We blockchain people (myself included) often have a tendency to start off from the perspective that we are Ethereum, and therefore we need to go around and find use cases for Ethereum - and generate arguments for why sticking Ethereum into all kinds of places is beneficial. But recently I have been thinking from a different perspective. For a moment, let us forget that we are "the Ethereum community". Rather, we are maintainers of the Ethereum tool, and members of the {CROPS (censorship-resistant, open-source, private, secure) tech | sanctuary tech | non-corposlop tech | d/acc | ...} community. Going in with zero attachment to Ethereum specifically, and entering a context (like RWC) where there are people with in-principle aligned values but no blockchain baggage, can we re-derive from zero in what places Ethereum adds the most value? From attending the events, the first answer that comes up is actually not what you think. It's not smart contracts, it's not even payments. It's what cryptographers call a "public bulletin board". See, lots of cryptographic protocols - including secure online voting, secure software and website version control, certificate revocation... - all require some publicly writable and readable place where people can post blobs of data. This does not require any computation functionality. In fact, it does not directly require money - though it does _indirectly_ require money, because if you want permissionless anti-spam it has to be economic. The only thing it _fundamentally_ requires is data availability. And it just so happened that Ethereum recently did an upgrade (PeerDAS) to increase the amount of data availability it provides by 2.3x, with a path to going another 10-100x higher! Next, payments. Many protocols require payments for many reasons. Some things need to be charged for to reduce spam. Other things because they are services provided by someone who expends resources and needs to be compensated. If you want a permissionless API that does not get spammed to death, you need payments. And Ethereum + ZK payment channels (eg. ethresear.ch/t/zk-api-usage… ) is one of the best payment systems for APIs you can come up with. If you are making a private and secure application (eg. a messenger, or many other things), and you do not want to let people to spam the system by creating a million accounts and then uploading a gigabyte-sized video on each one, you need sybil resistance, and if you care about security and privacy, you really should care about permissionless participation (ie. don't have mandatory phone number dependency). ETH payment as anti-sybil tool is a natural backstop in such use cases. Finally, smart contracts. One major use case is _security deposits_: ETH put into lockboxes that provably get destroyed if a proof is submitted that the owner violated some protocol rule. Another is actually implementing things like ZK payment channels. A third is making it easy to have pointers to "digital objects" that represent some socially defined external entity (not necessarily an RWA!), and for those pointers to interact with each other. *Technically*, for every use case other than use cases handling ETH itself, the smart contracts are "just a convenience": you could just use the chain as a bulletin board, and use ZK-SNARKs to provide the results of any computations over it. But in practice, standardizing such things is hard, and you get the most interoperability if you just take the same mechanism that enables programs to control ETH, and let other digital objects use it too. And from here, we start getting into a huge number of potential applications, including all of the things happening in defi. --- So yes, Ethereum has a lot of value, that you can see from first principles if you take a step back and see it purely as a technical tool: global shared memory. I suspect that a big bottleneck to seeing more of this kind of usage is that the world has not yet updated to the fact that we are no longer in 2020-22, fees are now extremely low, and we have a much stronger scaling roadmap to make sure that they will continue to stay low, even if much higher levels of usage return. Infrastructure for not exposing fee volatility to users is much more mature (eg. one way to do this for many use cases is to just operate a blob publisher). Ethereum blobs as a bulletin board, ETH as an asset and universal-backup means of payment, and Ethereum smart contracts as a shared programming layer, all make total sense as part of a decentralized, private and secure open source software stack. But we should continue to improve the Ethereum protocol and infrastructure so that it's actually effective in all of these situations.

Today, the SDNY prosecutors filed a letter to Judge Failla requesting a retrial date. They want to go again in October. The prosecutors want to retry me on 2 counts the jury couldn't unanimously decide on. A jury of 12 Americans heard 4 weeks of evidence and deadlocked: no verdict on money laundering, and no verdict on sanctions violations. The government's response? Try again to make writing code a crime. @realDonaldTrump declared the "War on Crypto is over." 🇺🇸 AG @DAGToddBlanche's memo: DOJ "is not a digital assets regulator" and won't target mixers for end-user acts. @USTreasury lifted Tornado Cash sanctions entirely. ✅ Also Treasury, March 2026: "Lawful users of digital assets may leverage mixers to enable financial privacy." — official report to Congress under the GENIUS Act. But the SDNY prosecutors — same country, same DOJ — just filed to retry me anyway. 🤔 ⠀ The 2 counts = up to 40 years in federal prison. ⛓️ For writing open-source code. For a protocol I don't control. For transactions I never touched. A jury already couldn't agree this was criminal. But the SDNY prosecutors want to keep trying with the hope of getting a different answer. ⠀ I have a daughter. I have a life in Seattle. I will never stop fighting for freedom. ❤️ But I need to be honest with you: Four weeks of trial. A hung jury. Now they want to do it all over again in October. I have basically exhausted my legal defense funds. And I'm staring down another full federal trial. 😔 Every dollar raised goes directly to keeping this fight alive — attorneys, experts, the full defense apparatus it takes to stand up to the SDNY prosecutors. This isn't abstract. If I can't fund a defense, they win by default. If you care about financial privacy, if you write code and believe that code is speech — this is the moment. 💻🔐 👇

I used to think my 20s were my prime. Then I realized my prime is whenever the hell I say it is. You are in control. You don’t have to consent to the arbitrary timelines and comparisons that the world hands you. Normalize never hitting your prime.