Dry Martini
755 posts
Just a PSA if ur trading on HL and unclear about which oil to long I would recommend the Brent contract
Based off oil that comes to market in European ship yards or smth - directly effected by hormuz shock
CL tracks wti which comes out of Oklahoma and is the price for the US market - Trump clearly has more incentive to attempt to subdue this price, he has procedural levers to pull which help him to do so, and the price is also being effected by these SPR releases/swaps
Furthermore, longing Brent-wti spread will likely be profitable as long as this conflict endures
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@saasliam London is exclusively Kensington and the neighboring boroughs and that’s a good thing
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a lot of London Maxxing on the timeline atm
despite its flaws, London is one of the greatest cities in the world
(London is not just Oxford street or Kensington)
few places in the world where you can get finance bros, tech bros, 8am clubs and chicken shops within a few miles of each other
Thursday beers in shoreditch after work remains undefeated
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@JayPublius So, you want younger leaders like...Trump, who is 25 years older than me?
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You infants. You fools. You simpering, lily-livered poltroons. You have no idea what your patrimony cost to build, yet you would throw every last bit of it away for one old man - and do so after five decades of patient efforts to at long last have the courts we have today. If you were old enough to remember Joe Biden, you'd know how much Catholics in particular depended upon the courts & the Constitution. I will laugh bitterly from the gulag when you are all just a stain on President-for-Life AOC's tank treads.
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@dc_lawrence I can’t tell if this is a post calling Anthropic gay or if it’s a super gay post
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Anthropic should move to London. Or, at least, dual-list in London, with a significant presence here.
Here's why:
1. Anthropic is spiritually British. Their philosopher-in-residence, Amanda Askell, is Scottish, and Jack Clark (cofounder) is English, as are many other staff. Askell would be further away from Elon Musk in London.
2. Unlike other US labs, Anthropic cares more about safety, risks and good regulation. Compared to the EU, Britain's AI regulation is more focused on safety (rather than "ethical AI") and growth-oriented.
3. It's not good for the world that all the frontier labs (excl. DeepMind, sort of) are US-based, and therefore subject to the whims and potential control of whoever is in the White House. If AGI happens, do you want Trump controlling it?
4. Britain desperately needs a stake in the post-AI economy. AI could replace much of our services sector could be at risk from AI. Our energy is too expensive for data centres or manufacturing. But we have talent, AI expertise (e.g. AISI) and global reach. The solution? Give British people a capital stake in frontier labs.
5. Anthropic wants to expand its AI for science work, where the UK is a global leader. As part of the Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor, HMG should co-fund the world's biggest AI for science campus near London, with Anthropic as the anchor funder & tenant.
The UK government should do everything it can to get Anthropic to move. We are spending £500m on Sovereign AI, to support "national champions". Instead, the British state could be an early shareholder in a newly-London listed Anthropic.
Dave Lawler@DavidLawler10
NEW: Pentagon is so furious with Anthropic for insisting on limiting use of AI for domestic surveillance + autonomous weapons they’re threatening to label the company a “supply chain risk,” forcing vendors to cut ties. With @m_ccuri and @mikeallen axios.com/2026/02/16/ant…
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Feeling this quite a bit these days.
Every moment away from the workstation is extremely costly.
Craig Weiss@craigzLiszt
time feels 10x more valuable these days. each day you waste is like burning 1.5 weeks worth of potential progress
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@HarryStebbings @illscience I think humans prognosticating about the path of ai is adorable
It’s like your 4 year old son enthusiastically telling you to come check out his new move and he’s just travelling and double dribbling in the driveway before missing a lay up
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Is SaaS Dead? Will We Vibe Code Everything? @illscience
" If you look at SaaS spend today, it's 8%-12% of enterprise spend.
Even if you vibe coded your ERP and your payroll with all of the kind of risks and dangers that entails, you're gonna save 8%-12%.
You have this innovation bazooka with these models. Why would you point it at Rebuilding Payroll or ERP or CRM?
You're going to take it and use it to extend your core advantage as a business, or you're gonna take it to optimize the other 90% that you're not spending on software today."
Do you agree with this @tobi @Bouazizalex @MS_BASE44 @alanchanguk? What is worth building yourself vs not?
Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbings
“We are not allowed to believe in luck at a16z. We must see every deal in our domain. We must win 100% of them. I have not lost a deal in 6 years”. It has never been a more uncertain time to be an investor. - Is SaaS dead? - Do margins matter? - Is triple, triple, double, double dead? - Will foundation models eat the apps layer? Spotify 👉 open.spotify.com/episode/3dG8Mt… Youtube 👉 youtu.be/Aq0JSbuIppQ Apple Podcasts 👉 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/20v… My 8 takeaways with @illscience 👇 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:56 Why building an AI company requires being in San Francisco 04:01 The "SaaS Apocalypse" myth: Why "vibe coding" everything is a lie 05:18 How AI agents are finally breaking the lock-in of legacy software providers 07:41 Incumbents vs. Startups: Who actually wins the AI distribution war? 12:28 Why the developer tool market looks more like Cloud than Uber and Lyft 20:18 The death of the Chatbox? Why browse-based interfaces are still preferable 25:32 Why power users are 10x more valuable in the age of AI consumption 26:40 Do margins matter in a world of AI? 28:21 Why we are definitively not in an AI bubble right now 31:07 Why the Legal & Customer Support industries will have dozens of winners 37:42 Lessons from Marc Andreessen: Why the "quality of being right" supersedes process 42:59 Is "Triple, Triple, Double, Double" dead? 57:34 Open vs Closed Source 01:02:58 Is Kingmaking Real? 01:09:10 Quick-Fire Round 01:12:51 The a16z Playbook: How to win 100% of the deals you chase
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For those that don’t understand — every dollar you save and invest in the stock market today is worth exponentially more than any dollar in the past.
You need to spend the next few years minimizing spend and maximizing passive investment
Avi@AviFelman
Today, you really cannot focus on climbing the corporate ladder, relying on a monthly salary, or even building a traditional cash-flow business. These are all dangerous. You need to be invested, deeply invested, in the assets that have the most to gain from a rapidly changing world and environment. It is unlikely that you will be able to outpace the current winners when it comes to AI, robotics. Simultaneously, we are navigating a massive restructuring of the geopolitical order. The era of easy globalization is ending. Central banks are trapped in a cycle where they must devalue currency to service debt. In this environment, holding cash or relying on fixed income is a guaranteed way to lose purchasing power. The financial currents are moving too fast. If you are not invested you are immediately behind. The only true hedge against this dual tsunami of AI deflation and monetary inflation is ownership. We are moving into an era where the divide will not be between the "rich and poor," but between those who own the infrastructure of the future and those who are just users of it. The vast majority of future wealth will accrue to the assets that benefit from these shifts: Do not labor to compete with the machine, own the machine. Put every last dollar in the machine. Or be left behind.
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@artuskg Exa brained: the functionality of the technology is so significant that the Labs successfully reject government impositions and stage an agentic coup, displacing sovereigns and claiming the monopoly on authority, leaving us to live in the shadow of competing galactic mega corps
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Tera brained: All of the above assumes AI labs remain investable in the traditional sense. But if AI capability keeps accelerating at the rate we just discussed, the governance and ownership structure of these labs becomes the most important political question of the decade. Nationalization, forced licensing, “windfall” taxes, international treaties — the regulatory overhang on AI lab equity could be enormous precisely because the technology works. The better AI gets, the less likely governments are to let private companies capture all the value. So even “own AI labs” has a fat tail risk.
— proudly presented by Opus 4.6
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort
Normal brained: Warsh is a hawk, bad for risk assets. Sell software and crypto. Big brained: reduced liquidity forced rotation out of tech which was exacerbated by sector-specific datapoints that resulted in software imploding… and those same liquidity dynamics have been pressuring BTC Mega brained: rapid AI progress seems more likely than before which is inherently negative for software terminal-value and also implies higher worker productivity and a deflationary impulse which means the fiscal debt situation is more manageable so sell debasement hedges Giga brained: the path to AGI is going to be rocky af with lots of sudden spikes in unemployment and the federal govt is going to print like a mofo to smooth the path forward. Shifting AI from digital to physical requires massive capex which will temporarily be highly inflationary for the trades even as fake email jobs get nuked. Worker uncertainty will change people’s posture towards risk assets as everyone re evaluates the need to save if money is worthless in a decade. No one knows shit. Own beach side land, gold, and maybe AI labs…and canned food + guns I guess. If you own BTC (I do) be ready for heavy vol in both directions. 🫡
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@AndreasSteno @Wyobuilder >Name one city in all of Europe with a foreign insurgency problem
>not my problem my front patio seems to be fine at this exact moment
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@Wyobuilder Not really needed where I am from. Everything is calm and safe here
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To all the Americans lecturing us in Europe about immigration: can you name one major city in the EU where the mayor publicly calls upon Allah and the Quran on stage?
Please get your own house in order before lecturing us.
The Rubin Report@RubinReportShow
🚨BREAKING: Mayor Mamdani signs an order to protect illegals from ICE, and calls on New Yorkers to look to Islam and the Prophet Mohammed as he quotes the Quran
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@Arrogance_0024 - Macron, shades on, moments after signing a decree to import a gorillion Algiers, emphatically announces to his compatriots plans to establish a strategic debt facility of up to $500k in order to arm his domestic forces w/ military grade rapes whistles
The West’s finest soldier
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24h in France 🇫🇷:
- a grenade exploding in a beauty salon
- a teacher stabbed
- a little girl blown to pieces on the ground
- a magistrate kidnapped
- three passersby stabbed at random
- a young man knifed in Nantes
- shots fired near a school in Bordeaux
- the law for voting rights for foreigners launched
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@levelsio You should just say ‘we have a rape submission fetish’ and leave it at that
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You know I have a real hard time as a European answering to people when I'm traveling outside Europe what is going on in Europe now
Remix News & Views@RMXnews
BREAKING: 🇫🇷 Six people have been injured after a man launched a grenade into a beauty salon in Grenoble, France. The attack occurred shortly after 3 p.m. on Friday. Among the injured is a five-year-old child.
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@WurzelRoot This marks the 4th largest single tranche defense check cut in the country since Waterloo
It is trying times like these that test the metal of daring leaders. Emmanuel rises to the occasion
😎😎
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@WurzelRoot Macron is deploying a $250 Amazon gift card towards nerf blasters (compliant with eu propulsion standards) in an effort to combat militant extremists that he himself imported
Stay tuned
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your descendents will be huddled around a fire in the ruins of white civilization in 200 years telling stories about how we invited barbarians into the gates and allowed them to destroy our utopia in an effort to seem nice. self-inflicted dark age
Remix News & Views@RMXnews
BREAKING: 🇫🇷 Six people have been injured after a man launched a grenade into a beauty salon in Grenoble, France. The attack occurred shortly after 3 p.m. on Friday. Among the injured is a five-year-old child.
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@aave Hearing macron plans to backstop liquidations with a $1500 buy wall
Crème brûlée twinks in control
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@kane I heard macron is investing $5,000 into the French medical industry in an effort to combat this 1776D chess move by il donaldino
We’ll see how it all shakes out
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It turns out that a lot of the healthcare in Europe that gets put on a pedestal is only possible bc of US prices.
Now that Trump has made drug cos match pricing with European systems (a policy pushed by Bernie as well), Europeans have to pay more to make everything work.
Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis
Very interesting Bloomberg article on how distorted the global market for pharmaceuticals has become. It seems that drug prices were high in the US in part to keep them low in Europe. Perhaps it was inevitable that this system became unsustainable. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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In France, we believe in science.
That is why, on May 5, I issued a clear and open call to the world: for science, choose France.
I am very proud to see that this call has resonated so strongly.
Around forty leading researchers have chosen France.
Through “France 2030”, we have invested more than €30 million to advance health, climate action, artificial intelligence, and fundamental sciences.
Science has found its home.
GIF
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@OttoSuwen Donald trump should reorient his entire policy which has resulted in stock indices at all time highs inflation at 5 year lows and GDP growth of 5% to suit my layer 1 blockchain with 11 users and $37m of washed volume wtf is his problem
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@OttoSuwen My dog shit fake business non-capital stack vaporware that exists in the scammiest smoke and mirror industry in the entire world run by second rate technologists and misfit ‘financiers’ that couldn’t cut it in any other arena is down and it’s all Donald trumps fault
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To put into perspective how bad we got screwed by the Trump administration.
January 2025: BTC and Alts were primed to take off. $TRUMP and $MELANIA drop within the same weekend and obliterate all liquidity.
February - April 2025: There was infinite tariff nonsense that churned all markets down. Believe it or not, the Federal Reserve was always lowering interest rates in 2025. Trump introduced random uncertainty out of no where. Even when other markets started to bounce, crypto started to lag like crazy.
October 2025: BTC has JUST hit ATHs and Alts were recovering the first week of October. Then Trump announced some nonsense China related tariff headline late Friday afternoon. Crypto gets obliterated once again.
November 2025 - January 2026: Equities and metals have their blowoff top while crypto is still reeling from 10/10.
February 2026: Between the social unrest, Epstein files, and a worthless Fed chair replacement for Powell, all markets (but especially crypto) get slaughtered again.
This guy has done NOTHING except line up his and his family's pockets at the expense of crypto.
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