Adele Malpass

Texas primary turnout should worry Republicans. Democrats: 2.3M voters Republicans: 1.8M voters Dems +500K turnout advantage — despite a high-profile GOP Senate race. History: Since 2006, the party with stronger primary turnout has gone on to win the House in every midterm.

If the Harris poll numbers below hold up until Election Day, no way the Democrats have a blue wave. Generic congressional ballot 2026 (RV) 🟦Democratic 50% (-4) 🟥Republican 50% (+4) — President Trump approval ❌Disapprove 49% (-2) ✅Approve 46% (+1) (Change from previous poll | 1/28-1/29 RV) Link to poll: harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/upl… @HarrisXdata

New Harvard CAPS / Harris poll on the State of the Union: 60% of viewers approved. Every major policy in the speech polled above water. Nearly half the country tuned in.

Big picture from last night’s State of the Union: Trump stayed on message. Used the teleprompter. Framed the midterms. Appealed to independent voters with patriotic themes. Wrapped policy victories with real stories by honoring heroes, victims, and military families. You know it went well when the NYT couldn’t even bring itself to put the speech on the front page. He won independents in 2016 by 4 points and carried them in key battlegrounds in 2024. He’ll need them again to win the midterms. 1. Main theme: The golden age is upon us. He tied Democratic policies directly to the affordability crisis — arguing inflation, energy costs, and border chaos weren’t accidents, but policy choices. 2. He leaned into 70/30 issues: Voter ID Border security Men in girls’ sports Strong military Law & order 3. More than 70 Democrats boycotted. About a dozen walked out. When Trump said, “The first duty of government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens,” many stayed seated. The optics were powerful.

March 3rd Texas GOP Senate primary is going to be a true test of where the Republican Party is headed: Hard-core MAGA (Ken Paxton) vs. establishment (John Cornyn) vs. mainstream MAGA (Wesley Hunt) A three-lane fight that says a lot about the party’s center of gravity going into 2026. For John Cornyn - After decades in the Senate, he’s struggling to clear 30% in a three-way race. If he can’t expand beyond the establishment lane, it’s a warning sign for every long-serving Republican incumbent in the Trump era.

Key takeaway from Nathan Gonzales @rollcall Senator John Cornyn is stuck in the high-20s to ~30% range in the Texas GOP Senate primary — and has been for months — raising real risk for a longtime incumbent. In a May runoff he’ll need to break through 40 points. rollcall.com/2026/02/19/joh…

Special elections lately: Louisiana House District 60 → Democrat wins 62–38 in a Trump +13 district (about a 24-point overperformance) Texas State Senate District 9 → Democrat flips a decades-held Republican seat, winning by ~14 in a Trump +17 district Multiple other races → Democrats running ~10+ points ahead of 2024 baselines These aren’t narrow losses — they’re double-digit warning lights for 2026.

Republican warning signs for 2026: soft presidential approval, Democrats overperforming in recent specials, and GOP polling showing exposure in key battlegrounds such as Maine and North Carolina.

Must read by Hans Von Spakovsky on the SAVE Act. The Supreme Court’s issue with the SAVE Act isn’t “voter ID.” It’s constitutional structure. In 2013 (Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council), SCOTUS said states couldn’t require documentary proof of citizenship beyond the federal form. Now Congress is trying to mandate it nationwide. The question: Does Congress have authority under the Elections Clause to require proof — or does this override state election systems and burden voters in ways the Constitution doesn’t allow? This case is about federal power, precedent, and how far you can go regulating registration — not whether only citizens should vote.

A well deserved shout out to Stephen Moore from President Trump. Here’s why - newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/ste… @realDonaldTrump/116087475988311202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…

Outstanding remarks by @SecRubio. The post-Cold War globalist consensus is over. Rubio warned globalization hollowed out Western industry, open borders strained sovereignty, and climate absolutism sabotaged energy security — while elites called it “progress.” Time to reset to strength + national interest.

"After record high crime across the country under Biden's defund the police era, the murder rate has plunged to a 125-year low as crime falls across the board, according to new data," the White House said.

Good news: Republicans heading into the midterms are out raising Democrats with more cash on hand. This is in sharp contrast to 2018 where Democrats massively outraised Republicans, especially in House races, and rode that financial wave to flip 41 seats and take the majority. If GOP fundraising stays competitive, the GOP might be able to defy the incumbent midterm curse.

GOP Fundraising Lead Over Dems Widens Ahead of Midterms | Newsmax.com newsmax.com/politics/midte…

Must-read from @StephenMoore on the Trump economy & why the U.S. economy is stronger than the rest of the world. newsmax.com/stephenmoore/f…

Great on the ground reporting on the situation in Venezuela from Rob Schmitt and Newsmax CEO Chris Ruddy. Check it out.

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Red flag warning for Republicans. The political landscape heading into the 2026 midterms is starting to look a lot like 2017 — the prelude to the 2018 blue wave when Democrats flipped 41 House seats and took the majority. Last night, Democrats flipped another state legislative seat in TEXAS. Trump won this seat by 17 points in 2024, but last night the Democrat won by 14 points — a massive swing. Since the 2024 election, Democrats have flipped 8 state legislative seats in special elections from Republican to Democrat — with ZERO flipping the other way. Compare that to 2017 special elections: ➤ 14 seats flipped GOP → Dem ➤ 3 seats flipped Dem → GOP ➤ Net Democratic gain: +11 seats Democrats also overperformed in the 2025 off-year elections — delivering huge statewide and legislative gains in Virginia, expanding Democratic control in New Jersey, and flipping two under-the-radar Georgia Public Service Commission seats that Republicans had held for more than 20 years. This is on top of massive turnout enthusiasm around socialist NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani signaling energized progressive turnout. These are similar early warning signs that preceded the 2018 blue wave.