Cedric Youngelman ⚡️

@_BitcoinMatrix @Croesus_BTC @smarterwebco @_BitcoinCenter @TraceMayer @Excellion @JAN3com @thejobchick @GrantCardone @RobinSeyr @MicroSeed_io @TFL1728 @bramk @TomerStrolight @BITVOLT @jimmysong @Daniel21e15 @natbrunell @DavidBCollum @parkeralewis @keonne @SamouraiWallet @WalkerAmerica @JeffBooth @meanwhile @LeboBTC @AaronRDay @leamuirleyn @Beau_Turner21 @AbundantMines @andyjschoonover @JoinCrowdHealth @IIICapital @peruvian_bull @MarylandHODL21 @CrisReed @conhodlan @unchainedcap @Stamp_Seed @firefish_io @secsovereign @timevalueofbtc @TheBitcoinLayer @Humble_Hodl1111 @ByteFederal @_BitcoinMatrix #273: @PiusSprenger - The Big Short, the Power Law & Why #Bitcoin Hits $1M in 8 Years PhD mathematician & right hand man to the trader Ryan Gosling played in the movie. Shorted subprime for 3 years. He was right. Management was wrong. 📺youtube.com/watch?v=VQEs9E…

Running bitcoin

This is one of the most persistent misunderstandings among some Bitcoiners: “Bitcoin should not be measured in dollars because the dollar is fiat, and fiat is a bent ruler.” It sounds profound, but it is almost exactly backwards. All rulers are bent. That is not a metaphor. It is literally true. Every measuring device has error. A physical ruler expands and contracts with temperature, humidity, aging, wear, and deformation. A digital measuring instrument has electronic noise, calibration drift, background interference, and environmental contamination. Even highly controlled laboratory instruments pick up noise from temperature fluctuations, mechanical vibrations, electromagnetic interference, and sometimes even daily oscillations from human activity and the electrical grid. There is no perfect ruler. Science does not require perfect rulers. Science requires knowing how large the ruler’s error is relative to the thing being measured. If you measure a 100-meter building with an instrument that has an uncertainty of a few millimeters, this is not a serious problem. You simply report the result with uncertainty. Maybe the building is 100.000 m ± 0.003 m. The measurement is still meaningful because the error is tiny compared with the object being measured. The same applies to Bitcoin. Yes, the dollar is not a perfect unit of measurement. Inflation “bends” the dollar. Monetary debasement changes its purchasing power. But the relevant question is not whether the ruler is imperfect. The relevant question is: How large is the distortion compared with Bitcoin’s growth? Bitcoin has increased by many orders of magnitude in about 17 years. Relative to that, dollar inflation is a small correction. Even if the dollar had lost purchasing power by a factor of several over that period, Bitcoin’s growth is so enormous that the effect is not enough to erase or invalidate the signal. This is basic measurement theory. A slightly bent ruler can still measure a mountain. And this is where the argument becomes self-defeating. If dollar inflation were large enough to explain Bitcoin’s rise, then Bitcoin would not be the hedge against inflation we claim it is. Bitcoin is a hedge precisely because it has grown much faster than fiat debasement. Inflation is not the main signal. It is a small perturbation riding on top of a much larger phenomenon. People think they are making a deep point by saying, “You cannot measure Bitcoin in dollars because the dollar is unstable.” But if the dollar’s instability dominated the measurement, Bitcoin would not be exceptional. It would merely be following the collapse of the measuring unit. That is not what we observe. Bitcoin rises not only against the dollar, but against almost everything else: oil, real estate, stocks, gold, labor, energy, and broad baskets of goods. None of these are perfect rulers either. But they are all relatively stable compared with Bitcoin’s long-term growth. That is why the signal appears no matter which reasonable unit you use. The dollar is a noisy ruler. So is gold. So is oil. So is real estate. So is the S&P 500. So is a basket of consumer goods. But Bitcoin’s growth is so large that the choice of ruler does not destroy the pattern. It may slightly change the intercept, add noise, or modify short-term deviations, but it does not eliminate the scaling behavior. This also applies to the future. According to the power law, Bitcoin is expected to grow roughly 100× over the next 20 years. If inflation also grows by 100× over the same period, then Bitcoin has not really gained purchasing power in that frame. In that case, Bitcoin would have failed as the monetary revolution we expect it to be. But if Bitcoin grows much faster than inflation, then measuring it in dollars remains meaningful. The dollar may be imperfect, but it is not so distorted that it hides the signal. Bitcoin beats inflation by outgrowing it. That remains true whether you measure Bitcoin in dollars, euros, houses, barrels of oil, ounces of gold, hours of labor, or baskets of goods. They are all imperfect measuring sticks, but they are sufficiently stable relative to Bitcoin’s growth to reveal the same basic fact: Bitcoin is not rising because the ruler is bending. Bitcoin is rising because Bitcoin is growing. That is the point people miss. Measuring Bitcoin in dollars is not “fiat thinking.” It is simply measurement. The dollar is an imperfect ruler, as all rulers are. The scientific question is whether the imperfection is small enough relative to the phenomenon being measured. In Bitcoin’s case, it clearly is. Do you get it now?

Bitcoin pumping. ASIC prices will follow. Margins are better. Might I say this is one of the best times to start mining if you’ve ever thought of it.

@CedYoungelman finally some real talk in the noise no gatekeepers, just signal

Your seed phrase is the most important thing you own. Most have it on paper. Paper burns at 451°F. House fires hit 1,100°F. @Stamp_Seed titanium survives 3,000°F. Hammer your words into metal. Hide it. Done forever. Code MATRIX — 15% off · stampseed.com

@CedYoungelman @PiusSprenger @_BitcoinMatrix that's not a retail take. that's someone who's seen real systemic risk up close

The Bitcoin Matrix #273 is now live. The desk Ryan Gosling plays in The Big Short? @PiusSprenger was on it. He shorted subprime for 3 years before the collapse paid. Now his peer-reviewed math says $1M Bitcoin in 8–9 years. Full conversation ↓

Where to listen ↓ 🍎 Apple · tinyurl.com/bitcoinitunes 🎧 Spotify · tinyurl.com/bitcoinspotify ▶️ YouTube · tinyurl.com/bitcoinonyoutu… ⚡ Fountain · fountain.fm/show/8jJhCIKzo…

I started The Bitcoin Matrix because the conversations I wanted to hear weren't being recorded. The thinkers behind the thinkers. The builders the talking heads quote. The frame behind the headline. Same fight. Different door. Every Week.

When the IRS ask how you're gonna pay your tax bill.

Don't sleep on my chat with @PiusSprenger. The Big Short is my favorite movie of all time. I got to talk to a man who lived it from inside Deutsche Bank — on the right side of the trade. Management wanted to fire him every day. For three years they thought him and the real-life Ryan Gosling (Greg Lippmann) were a couple of idiots. They held. They won big. Sound familiar? "Bitcoin is the most resilient beast I've ever seen in financial markets." — Pius the Banker

🔥MUST WATCH CLIP🔥 "The most resilient beast I've ever seen in financial markets." — @PiusSprenger The man who built the ABX index with Goldman + Bear Stearns, on Greg Lippmann's desk during The Big Short. @_Bitcoinmatrix EP273 — live everywhere now. 🟠

#211: The Truth No One Will Tell You @DavidBCollum exposes it all and breaks down the deep state, market manipulation, and the unraveling of America. 📺youtube.com/watch?v=pS68Gt…

Lawrence Lepard on the biggest error young Bitcoiners make: Greed. Leveraging the stack. Selling spot for premium NAV plays. Chasing the next price call. Buffett compounded at 18 to 22 percent. Bitcoin compounds at 40. Time is on your side.

@_BitcoinMatrix @Croesus_BTC @smarterwebco @_BitcoinCenter @TraceMayer @Excellion @JAN3com @thejobchick @GrantCardone @RobinSeyr @MicroSeed_io @TFL1728 @bramk @TomerStrolight @BITVOLT @jimmysong @Daniel21e15 @natbrunell @DavidBCollum @parkeralewis @keonne @SamouraiWallet @WalkerAmerica @JeffBooth @meanwhile @LeboBTC @AaronRDay @leamuirleyn @Beau_Turner21 @AbundantMines @andyjschoonover @JoinCrowdHealth @IIICapital @peruvian_bull @MarylandHODL21 @CrisReed @conhodlan @unchainedcap @Stamp_Seed @firefish_io @secsovereign @timevalueofbtc @TheBitcoinLayer @Humble_Hodl1111 @ByteFederal @_BitcoinMatrix #273: @PiusSprenger - The Big Short, the Power Law & Why #Bitcoin Hits $1M in 8 Years PhD mathematician & right hand man to the trader Ryan Gosling played in the movie. Shorted subprime for 3 years. He was right. Management was wrong. 📺youtube.com/watch?v=VQEs9E…

I'm not the greatest homemaker by a long shot, but I have trouble remembering what life was like before I retired from my job to be at home. The core tasks I primarily handle are laundry, home maintenance, yard work, budgeting, household and grocery shopping, meal prep, and kid logistics / transport. When we were both working, we would basically have to fit all of that into weekends and evenings, leaving so, so little time to just enjoy family life and have the down time that is so critical to sanity. While I make some great family dinners, I'm not as good at other homemaker talks like house cleaning and interior decorating. We splurge on a cleaning lady who comes every other week for a few hours to do the deeper cleaning of bathrooms and floors and such, and I do my best to keep with the rest. I also fit in SeedSigner stuff, which includes running my online shop, shitposting about the project, helping support users, doing light repo maintainer work, finding time to travel a few times a year for bitcoin events, and whatever else needs to be done for the project. Why am I sharing all of this? In what I think are the most important ways I am living my best life. That does not mean that things are always easy or stress free, but it does mean that my wife and I generally have time to focus on the **most important** stuff, which is family life and building relationships with our kids. I know what it's like to be one of two working parents and to be basically trying to get through life one day at a time. To blow up on the kids in the morning and feel bad about it for the rest of the day. To have to drop them off at day care and worry about what their day will be like. To be exhausted when you get home from work and still have a million things to do. To spend what would be productive evening and weekend time running them to and from sports events. To get up dead tired and have to do it all over again. We're blessed to have my wife's salary but we've also made a lot of sacrifices to make this arrangement possible: driving cars for as long as possible, scaling back vacations, our kids generally don't wear name brand stuff, I shop at Aldi for most of our groceries, we limit how much we eat out, we don't go overboard on Christmas or birthdays, all of that kind of stuff. So TLDR: if you are intentfully planning your life, have kids or want to have kids, and can pull off just one parent working, I cannot recommend it more strongly. One parent may be more self-managed or may have skills that make them a better option. One parent may have better career prospects and earning potential. But if you have to scale back on what is your dream house, or move to a smaller house in another county with lower taxes and a lower cost of living, or change careers, open a small business, or do some of the cost cutting things we've had to do... or if you have to do all of it, I'm here to tell you that it's worth it. My only regret is not being able to pull it off sooner -- if you plan for it, you can get there too. Society and corporate America have tried to trick us all into thinking that both parents in a family should have careers, and they've made it really hard to pull off with inflation and the cost of raising a family. But the stronger the why, the easer the how, and the "why" of having the best family life possible is worth it and something you won't regret when you're old and looking back on how things actually were or what they could have been. Thankfully bitcoin will continue to make some of the financial stuff easier. But again, my only regret is not putting our family at the forefront sooner.

@StarryStarryN17 Ty so much for sharing!

Great podcast Cedric. I appreciate hearing the candor on markets from this guest 👊 High quality, respectful and extremely informative. Thank you

A PhD mathematician who shorted subprime during The Big Short walking us through a peer-reviewed power-law model projecting $1M Bitcoin in 8–9 years — and $7–8M in 17. Not vibes. Math. @PiusSprenger on @_BitcoinMatrix EP273. 🟠