Deniz

2.5K posts

Deniz banner
Deniz

Deniz

@dtklp1

Sapere aude.

San Francisco Katılım Şubat 2019
1.5K Takip Edilen634 Takipçiler
M
M@RiskInhibitor·
can someone explain to me why $GANX trades above cash?
English
2
0
6
958
Adam May
Adam May@A_May_MD·
Should I get a lobotomy to improve stock market alpha?
English
22
1
44
17.5K
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
@pmarca you gotta prove it, turkish military style.
English
0
0
3
341
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
i think the idea that only democratic power should exist is inherently totalitarian. i think its a good thing for there to be different centers of power in a society and informal power structures found in civic society. and insofar as non-democratic power is concerned, power wielded by billionaires is a net benefit for me, and the power wielded by pro crime and homelessness activists and public sector unions a net negative.
English
1
0
0
116
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
its about how the fda interprets it, based on guidance and precedent. there's a reason NMSC exists as a category for instance, it's not made up by biox bulls, its a regulatory category. likewise for dysplasia. these events are not considered in the same category as non-NMSC malignancies by the regulator that is in charge of the labeling.
English
0
0
1
44
financebully
financebully@financebully·
@dumjgr88 i didn't make that number up on my own - $abvx dictated this. biox bulls don't make the rules. 😉
financebully tweet media
English
4
0
0
753
financebully
financebully@financebully·
context matters. omvoh: 29 cases scattered across 2600+ patients tracked over years (0.5% rate). $abvx: 7 cases clustered in a single randomized treatment group of 195 patients over a 44-week window, while the structurally identical low-dose group had 1 case.
Mickeychiku@mickeychiku

$ABVX Now that you have details from Abivax for each patient, see how 23 non-NMSC and 6 NMSC cases were reviewed for omvoh resulting in conclusion that not induced by the drug as the rate was still within the background rate for UC patients. Also, FDA review below.

English
4
0
13
10.2K
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
the issue with the comment here is, the model refuses to answer a question about the first thing you learn in a biology class. its not about bioweapon research, or a trade secret. the latter would actually be acceptable imho. as it is, it's just neuroticism. besides the models at least upto opus 4.8 were terrible at reasoning about clinical trials anyways. and drug development is not bottlenecked on intelligence and good ideas.
English
0
0
1
102
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
@tenobrus ok but this is a question on the the first thing you learn in biology. the question in the screenshot is not 'tell me ur best ideas on how to cure cancer'.
English
0
0
0
207
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
I think there is something to the argument in the clip. But the UK is a curious case, PMs renege on their promises and/or not do the popular thing when it comes to immigration. As a result, they lose elections and their premiership over and over again for not doing what the people wanna do. Boris lost his power though, I suppose more so due to partygate rather than 'Boriswave'. Rishi decided he'd rather lose then do anything on immigration. And Starmer had the instincts to utter somethings on the topic but still he'll lose his job in part due to immigration. And before them another bunch of PMs lost their jobs over Brexit. It seems like democracy is working to some extent and yet its not.
English
0
0
2
89
Wolf Tivy
Wolf Tivy@wolftivy·
I keep thinking back to this conversation with Ben especially in light of events in California and the YooKay. Basically there's democracy (the will of the people is real and decisive) and then there's "democracy" (manipulated ceremonial legitimacy procedure).
The Students@0xthestudents

"Many people have noticed that it seems like Congress in the US isn't really doing anything." @benlandautaylor explains why we've seen a shift away from democratic norms. The fundamental reason is that cheap amateur weapons have been replaced by expensive professional ones.

English
2
2
36
2.7K
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
i think turkey is both. inferiority complex toward western europeans, contempt toward arabs. and the broader turkish attitude is something like: if we got our shit together we'd totally kick ass, in a real crisis we'd kick ass even without our shit together, but we definitely do not have our shit together
English
1
0
3
633
Marko Jukic
Marko Jukic@mmjukic·
New theory in groupchat... many countries like America, Poland, Israel, Turkey have irrational all-encompassing Serb-like jingoism. But many others like India, Brazil have equally irrational need to self-flagellate, inferiority complex... all countries are either Serb or Croat.
English
10
9
101
7.6K
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
@moseskagan this is the fundamental limitation of the left-yimby coalition. leftists don't like landlords and developers. republicans otoh like private property and like to be pro-business. So they end up being yimby without developing a self consciousness around being yimby/urbanists.
English
1
0
4
91
Moses Kagan
Moses Kagan@moseskagan·
Chris is a smart guy who has done a lot of good, but I think he (& those like him) still misunderstand what goes on when you go ask rich people or institutions to invest in building housing. Bc apartment buildings are very long duration assets which are (necessarily) valued based on cashflows far into the future, the specific policy mix at the time of investment is less relevant than the expected direction of policy over time. When you do something like impose ULA midstream on a bunch of projects that hadn't budgeted for it, or slap on a 4 yr eviction moratorium in response to a (charitably) 18 month pandemic, or invent a city-funded "right to counsel" for simple non-payment evictions, you send a very strong signal about the future direction of policy. So, if you want to re-build trust, you need to send very strong counter-veiling signals.
Chris Elmendorf@CSElmendorf

Lots of posters say a @nithyavraman victory would further depress housing production in L.A., due to risk of stricter rent control, eviction moratoria, etc. That's a risk, but she has many ways to mitigate it, including during the general election campaign. 🧵/9

English
32
17
295
63.2K
Celine Halioua
Celine Halioua@celinehalioua·
is there an example of a female founder who has been "queenmade"? is @miramurati our closest comp?
English
21
2
106
35.2K
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
@willccbb confidentiality refers to the contents :)
English
0
0
3
565
will brown
will brown@willccbb·
“we filed an S-1 confidentially” uhhh not really confidential anymore bud
English
5
1
101
34.4K
pharmabro
pharmabro@pharmabro0782·
@dtklp1 @Biohazard3737 isn’t Twitter/X also part of this? so this is just a ploy to bail out the investors in XAI and Twitter (imo). The $300b seems fine for spacex
English
1
0
1
94
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
@AndrewRangeley @A_May_MD I'd love to see you discuss some other tickers too. Could be other catalyst he's interested in (he's posted on CGEM and TENX before). Could be an overview of competitive landscapes in Derm, there's a lot of activity in HS. Wouldnt mind a rant on SYRE/ORKA/APGE too.
English
0
0
3
631
Andrew Walker
Andrew Walker@AndrewRangeley·
Excited to have @A_May_MD back on the pod Monday. It's been a crazy week; we'll be talking all about what adjustments the Spurs can make to try to steal one from the Knicks at MSG. Just kidding; we'll be talking $ABVX readout + $NKTR + all things bio. Any questions for Adam?
English
40
4
159
18.2K
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
re abvx, you were right on the facts, and thanks for all the work you and adam put in to revise the narrative on twitter. different tangent, but do you have an M&A outlook. We did get deals for Centessa, Tern and Apellis. But more and more it seems like there's greater appetite for early stage pipeline / platform deals, and for private biotechs.
English
2
0
5
818
Seedy19
Seedy19@seedy19tron·
The Weekly 🌱 New: Increased: Unchanged: $abvx, $cogt, $ewtx, $nktr, $bcrx Decreased: Closed: There wasn’t much I could’ve done when basically my largest position by a country mile went down 45 pts. What’s more concerning is my second largest position $nktr has been down that same amount (%) from highs and that really has been frustrating. Esp as I was adding aggressively in the 90s. Whilst everyone agrees the drug works and docs adamant they’ll be using Rezpeg (see Jeff Kol surgery), the risk appetite just isn’t there but sentiment is that now at these levels it’s getting super cheap. Does it reverse? I’d hope so. Hoping some unexpected catalyst that triggers the reversal that’s been very common with $nktr over the past 12 months. $cogt just sit and hold. Derisked… $ewtx I considered selling it but they literally have 7500 data this month which could be another catalyst that drives the sp, happy to hold. $bcrx nothings changed from the last earnings, curious to see what the next print is, no need to sell here. Also lastly sorry if my posts impacted you significantly last week due to the price action re to $abvx , the goal has always been to help everyone. Bring insights and readthroughs that the average biotech investor may not have figured out. This too shall pass, we got it right on what Obe maint will print. In fact it surpassed all expectations. Safety disregarding statistical noise and pure bad luck was in line if not better (headaches, cardio etc). Comeback time! Seedy
English
15
0
230
14.4K
CorporateActionsUSA
CorporateActionsUSA@actions_usa·
@Anders_Research Levy Raphi executes a tactical exit, liquidating 18.04% of his total position immediately following the 22% rally in $DRTS.
English
2
0
0
130
Anders
Anders@Anders_Research·
A lot of new investors that don't quite know the $DRTS story selling it off on ASCO data. These data are from disparate, diversely-enrolled trials, with many patients not receiving full tumor coverage. And still Alpha DaRTs is delivering 11+ months mOS vs. 6 months SoC... The 17-month mOS from last chemo initiation is an interesting data point but difficult to interpret. The bottom line is that even at these levels Alpha DaRT is a major improvement in SoC that can be COMBINED with $RVMD's daraxonrasib because of its stellar safety. AND that the data from the US-based 40-patient pancreatic trial due around YE will likely look even better.
Anders tweet mediaAnders tweet media
English
3
3
16
1.6K
Deniz
Deniz@dtklp1·
@CalvinMccarter @RuxandraTeslo but there's no politically powerful constituency that would veto reform, like in social security etc., and US has pursued regulatory reforms in the past. So I think there's room for policy entrepreneurship in advocating for cutting red tape in clinical trials.
English
1
0
2
125
Ruxandra Teslo 🧬
Ruxandra Teslo 🧬@RuxandraTeslo·
I believe China's ascension in biotechnology could play out in two ways for the Western world: 1. In the optimistic case, it will be wake-up call. China is still behind in terms of basic science. If it can race ahead in certain areas (like cell therapies) based on regulatory reform and better and faster execution, what could the United States (and some European countries) achieve in biomedicine? How many more drugs would we have by implementing the right reforms? China has some structural advantages that cannot be readily copied: for example, cheaper workforce. Larger patient pools. But the United States does not have to copy everything, as it also has its own unique advantages. Implementing some key reforms would help a lot. For example, streamlining the path to first in human data. If the optimistic case comes to pass, we will have a Renaissance of medicines and many more than the counterfactual where China did not become ascendant in biomedicine. 2. In the pessimistic case, the Western world will not learn quickly enough from this, or have the political will to implement the right reforms. This will lead to a massive decrease in cures relative to the counterfactual, just as AI is promising to revolutionize the pre-clinical side of biomedicine. For now, American and European pharmaceutical companies largely retain the upper hand in the later stages of clinical development, as shown by the fact that Legend ultimately licensed Carvytki to a large American biopharmaceutical company to get it approved. But the pipeline that feeds those late-stage trials is increasingly Chinese. Such early-stage dominance turned into vertical integration of the entire chain in solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, and LCD panels. The question is how long Western companies can sustain their advantage at the later stages, when the discoveries that make those stages possible are increasingly being made elsewhere.
Ruxandra Teslo 🧬@RuxandraTeslo

China is winning the drug discovery race. There's no better example of this than multiple myeloma. worksinprogress.co/issue/the-bloo… It's one of the most painful cancers, destroying bone from within. For decades, patients endured cycles of brutal treatment and relapse. Then came Carvytki: a one-time CAR-T infusion that appears to cure some patients who have failed multiple treatments. Its development story, beginning in 2016, was an early signal of a shift now making headlines: the US is losing biotech dominance to China. Though the foundational science was largely American, a nimble Chinese company moved faster with a better molecular engineering idea. Unless the US addresses clinical-trial bottlenecks slowing early in-human data, more breakthroughs will be developed elsewhere, weakening the ecosystem American biopharma depends on. Some key points from my article for @WorksInProgMag, with my friend Amol Punjabi, of @EvidenceOpen: 1) Multiple myeloma is not only extremely painful in and of itself, but also one of the most brutal cancers to treat. As first-line therapy, patients endure four drugs simultaneously, then a stem cell transplant, followed by continuous maintenance therapy. And most still relapse, with each treatment round carrying worse chances. 2) A drug called Carvykti, approved in 2022, is changing the treatment landscape. Carvytki acts as a single, one-time infusion. It's a CAR-T therapy, part of a new wave of transformative immunotherapies: made from the patient's own immune cells and reprogrammed to hunt cancer. In patients who had already failed 4+ other treatments, 33% were still disease-free after 5 years. The results as earlier line therapy look even more promising. 3) Most of the foundational science was American. Decades of CAR-T research, and in 2013 the NCI showed BCMA-targeted CAR-T cells could kill myeloma in the lab. 4) But the drug that ultimately changed myeloma, Carvytki, originates from China. Carvytki beats Abecma (the American CAR-T for myeloma) by a wide margin: 36 months of progression free survival in heavily pre-treated patients versus Abecma's 9 months. 5) In 2016, Legend Biotech was just beginning clinical trials. This was the same year the American team was publishing their first-in-human results. Legend started later, but moved faster. Clever engineering and China's ability to get drugs into humans quickly gave them the edge. Large American biopharma J&J ended up striking a deal with Legend and developing the therapy. 6) Never underestimate the llama: US-developed Abecma used mouse antibody fragments to target BCMA. Chinese startup Legend used llama nanobodies instead. These are smaller, more stable and bind more cleanly to BCMA. The usage of llama as opposed to mice antibodies is what is believed to lead to Carvytki's superior efficacy. 7) In retrospect, Carvytki should have been an early warning. China is winning the drug discovery race through deliberate policy. Their first-in-human clinical trials can launch in 6 months vs 18+ months in the US, letting them iterate faster between lab and clinic. The @nytimes recently reported that ~50 percent of major drug deals this year involve Chinese-origin drugs, up from nearly zero a decade ago. 8) The US still leads in late-stage development, as shown, but the pipeline feeding it is increasingly Chinese. The worry is that this will mirror what happened in solar, batteries, and EVs, where early-stage dominance eventually became control of the entire chain. 9) A proposal to streamline early stage trial regulatory requirements to keep the US competitive has made it into the President's 2027 budget for the FDA. But Congress has to act to make it a reality.

English
15
24
168
25.2K
AJ
AJ@BOSSTRADING0·
$CRBP CBO acquires $90k dollars worth. GLP data pending $XBI $IBB
AJ tweet media
English
2
1
14
1.7K