First Strike Research

@NickNemo17 @YouTube The "your taste" selection is something the platform desperately needs

5/26 Live $GRPN $SEDG $MU $EOSE youtube.com/live/Hr9VeqXtL… via @YouTube

@NickNemo17 It's simple Kitten, when Daddy says buy, you buy.

@NickNemo17 $GRPN short sellers in shambles when they realize they're getting squeezed by an army of discord kitten e-girls.

Are u paying attention, kitten ? $GRPN

@FT @DraftKings - @FanDuel

Short sellers reap more than $2.3bn profit betting against gambling companies ft.trib.al/nYxFpTT

@Nostroah @AsymmInvesting Insta-bond

@AsymmInvesting Almost no point in having one!

There is not a world in which the CFTC loses this case against Minnesota. So far the largest overreach by any state in this prediction markets fiasco.

@bernardbulletin @gpoza_

Polls have now closed in KY-04, and I want to share my favorite market signal, which I discovered: the Gif Index. Simply, the strike that has the most animated gifs posted in the comments is the one that is more likely to lose. Based on this, Massie is losing. Courtesy @gpoza_

@FormerCFTCGC @60Minutes And they picked one of the foremost legal SMEs in the PM space. Congrats Rob that's a huge accomplishment!

ICYMI @60Minutes My mom thinks I looked handsome. cbsnews.com/news/predictio…

@ParetoPrincipl @jmc09111 Sadly, man, this is one of the risks of trading on Polymarket Vs. Kalshi

@jmc09111 But we can fight back against this scam. Polymarket needs to prove that it is a reliable platform

This time we should protect market integrity! Endless times we can see how UMA rocks manipulate market outcomes (farming UMA tokens rewards and simultaneously trading on polymarket). Two big problems with this market: 1.) Vague rules and inconsistent polymarket clarification. By rules we have: Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. By polymarket team clarification: Footage that was not broadcast live, even if filmed during the relevant events and released during market timeframe, will not qualify toward resolution. They subverted their own rules. There is a BIG difference in meaning: (broadcast) OR (streamed live) != (broadcast live) or (streamed live) Polymarket's clarification is trying to manipulate the semantics - we need urgent attention to this. 2.) A lot of evidence of live translation, or at least of broadcast. We have a lot of evidence of live translation of time-frame that clarify to market resolution on YES side. And we also have overwhelming amount that clarifies that video fragment is broadcasting and should resolve to YES. WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO? "If you believe you've witnessed potentially manipulative or prohibited trading activity on Polymarket, we want to hear from you." Send letter with complaint here - Integrity@polymarket.com

@RG3424 @Kalshi You realize no one is forcing you to do anything right? Like bro turn off the computer haha, like just look away haha

@Kalshi This is the dumbest shit ever. Why are you trying to make everyone hyper gamblers? This shit needs regulation asap. It's getting ridiculous.

Mention markets — predict what will be said. Will Trump say “border”? Will Tim Cook say “AI”? Will Jerome Powell say “inflation”? These markets change how you interact with the world.

@0xTyrael @polyint The insider trading paranoia is turning into basically a witch hunt where legitimate traders are being branded as insiders.

They really put this "insider investigation" on 60 Minutes and it's linking to a trader known for a long time in the Polymarket community @polyint who is most certainly not an insider🤣 I want to crack down on insiders as much as the next guy, but crying wolf isn't helping

@Groupon needs to lean into the in-person experience brand while consumers continue to show signs of AI-fatigue/confusion. So much noise has been added from AI it's drowning out legitimate signal. Consumers are likely to place a premium on expertly curated discovery and experiences. AI is the fuel to their engine, but their engine should remain tastefully curated experiences and offerings.

OPEN MESSAGE TO GROUPON MGMT: @dusenn @josefburyan @Groupon The feedback I keep hearing on $GRPN is that management is wary of doing a true platform facelift because past changes created friction with loyal users. I get it. You’ve had a bunch of hiccups including log-out of un-tech-savvy users. But I’d argue the tradeoff is optimizing around the customers you already have while leaving a much larger customer base on the table. Loyal customers are wonderful and they deserve respect. We are not abandoning them. We are going to figure out how to make their experience better and transition smooth. I think we can minimize short-term friction while maximizing long-term value. 2.3x retention is not evidence that the experience is optimized today. That should be 4.3 like peers. @ranakash I know you know what this would do. Setting that as the goal and user growth as a bonus, let’s discuss how to achieve it. The current paid marketing/conversion metrics may look good not because the UX is optimal, but because Groupon is sitting on a gold mine. The same gold mine Pale Fire saw early. Most Groupons are bought by a highly loyal repeat base. Maybe even more concentrated than the 80/20 rule. That is strength, but it can also hide the size of the missed opportunity. The platform saves people money. There should be a larger population of loyal/religious users. A modernized app + cleaner checkout + less login/payment friction + refreshed discovery could unlock a totally new cohort of customers. 2/3rds of that can be improved with zero threat to existing loyal users as the concern is friction to begin with. And the marketing angle writes itself: Groupon is revamped and the deals are better than ever. Not just “Mother’s Day deals.” Not just another promo code. The marketing strategy today is built for one-offs. @ryancohen ‘s view on marketing for Ebay is directionally right albeit extreme for Groupon. What people need to know is Groupon is back. Not that Mother’s Day is here. This does not need to be reckless. Launch a new look in beta. Let users opt into the new experience. Let legacy users use legacy mode. Test conversion, retention, AOV, repeat purchase, checkout completion, and paid-channel ROI side by side. I think long-term $GRPN investors would back bold, startup-like steps here. The quarter-to-quarter crowd may not — and god bless. They are not a shareholder base worth pandering to. I know the team agrees. The real opportunity set is extremely under-appreciated. Consumers need deals. 90% of America and Europe is struggling. I am asking you to consider why college students love thrifting and are not loyal Groupon customers right now. That can change with a new look and UGC/influencer marketing. I’m big and well connected on TikTok. Influencers have bought the stock because of my conviction on this story. In the coming days, I will be design a new look to show the vision I see as a shareholder. Roll Groupon.

Nevada is now cracking down on prediction market conferences A major Vegas hotel terminated a PM conference by top traders after the Gaming Board threatened to revoke their license Conference moved to NY The PM wars is getting dirtier

@NickNemo17 Substack is absolutely on another level in terms of minds, readers, and overall content quality.

Substack moves the needle more than any platform and has the best stock pickers anyone has access to. Sure, some junk. But more meritocratic than any other media or fund. You can check resumes, you can check lineage of knowledge transfer, or you can know ball.

the permanent underclass already exists and it’s on the kalshi Ideas section

Good day to be a dying broadcaster investor

Read our full report: firststrike.finance/p/will-the-rea…

Most companies rent AI. $EVC owns AI. EVC owns Smadex, Smadex owns intelligence as volume scales their margins technically expand.

Most "AI Companies" are just GPT or Claude Wrappers, real AI companies are small Spanish broadcasters with a ML-native mobile ad engine growing at +204% YoY $EVC 🧵👇