First Strike Research

@embrron @Kalshi Combine this with Kalshi's requirements that MMs need to continue quoting during the event.

@embrron @Kalshi Solid work. A good example is Sig's exposure during the crazy Knicks come back.

Been calling passive PM makers underwriters since june and someone finally measured it. Palumbo reconstructed the passive maker book on @kalshi NFL moneylines and the P&L comes from outcome risk carried into settlement more than from the spread, about $29M held through the whistle. LPing a binary venue is selling insurance with the premium set by accident. makers get paid for liquidity. underwriters get paid for carrying the result. binary venues sell the first story and run the second.

@radarmentions An open interest filter (by tick value even) would be nice. For example if a sudden block order for x amount hits the book at x tick value.

My World Cup + Bernie mentions setup w/Kalshi Pro Huge mentions weekend with World Cup finals, 3rd place game, and FOUR bernie rallies! I've been using Kalshi Pro for some of these bigger multi-market events, and ran through in this video how I used it. I may have also unintentionally shared some of my positions for this weekend in here too... oops :) Quote tweet or reply with a screenshot or short video of how you use Kalshi Pro for a chance at access to God Mode. Video has more info! youtu.be/ecQS_QaLVJo

@BenHorney Skill issue

New prediction-market lawsuit just dropped (against Robinhood). This proposed class action cites the same centuries-old law that a slew of suits against Kalshi, Robinhood, and others used in cases filed in state courts last June. That story: frontofficesports.com/18th-century-l…

A new class action against Robinhood alleges its “prediction markets” are just an unlicensed sportsbook running in all 50 states. Plaintiff alleges its sports “event contracts” are nothing but illegal gambling dressed up as investing.

@PredMP Interesting, I wonder why they have a FCM exclusion.

A busy day on the CFTC website - Water Streets Labs received its DCM designation earlier this evening. Application date 1/22/2026 = ~6 months for approval. Rulebook cites CX Clearing as the DCO, formerly known as Cantor Clearinghouse. A few interesting pieces of information from the designation are included in the pictures. cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…

@StockJabber @PredMTrader DMs = open

@PredMTrader Awesome! I’m very interested in learning more about that and the best practices for quoting combos

Working on a Kalshi Pro terminal guide video and realized something that some of you may find valuable They include "exotics" as a market category, which means you can filter for all of the top combos by volume and quote them directly with an order book instead of having to use RFQ

@Autonomous_Chad At this point I would've preferred an AI slop article because atleast it would've been accurate!

Another slop hit piece against Prediction Markets. Straight into the trash. Mainstream journalists just can't understand that prediction markets are NOT SportsBooks 1) "Polymarket and Kalshi are setting odds as to capture insider informations" I don't know what this is supposed to mean in the best of case. But Polymarket is not setting any odds anyway, the market does. They have no control over that. 2) "Prediction markets could incur financial losses if they let insiders win" Prediction markets do not bet against their users. This is what SportsBooks do. Prediction markets are a neutral platforms where users bet against other users. They do not care who loses or win a bet. 3) "Prediction markets give opportunities for world leaders to insider trade" True but they didn't wait on Prediction Markets and they are not even good for that. Every time Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, we saw Billion dollars oil future trades hit the market a few minute before, making hundred of millions in profit. Try to place a billion dollar order on Geopolitical prediction markets with a few hundred thousands of liquidity. For some reason Mainstream media seems to absolutely hate prediction markets and churn out these trash hit pieces on the regular. I would advise @polymarket to put a few dollars from their marketing budget into educating the wider public. Because this may seem very retarded to us, but so are the people reading it, and they vote.

@jarvis_best Someone needs to invent something where you can bet on the future price of a stock without owning it. Like you could have the option to own it or sell it. Like a casino expect for stocks!

Wait until Kalshi launches grain markets, the Bloomberg headline will be like Kalshi to Offer ‘Sports-Style’ Grain Futures. Me and the boys gonna get together and pound some beers and watch the wheat harvest come in

@Dani_Lever Agreed, these contracts have real world tangible value (long/short) as hedges for equity holders if the company developing the drug is publicly traded. Funny how Bloomberg doesn't call the Equity Options market a sports betting casino on whether a stock goes up or down!

The headline on this article is such a bad take Kalshi: Releases a product that can help accelerate American drug development and save lives Bloomberg editors: "New sports betting product just dropped" Clicks are the business. But on an issue this critical, we'd hoped for better than reducing it to a gambling story.

@KalshiSquare @MiLB Latency Arb gonna go crazyyyyy

BREAKING: Kalshi releases markets for Minor League Baseball Right now there are a total of 7 events, all at the AAA level @MiLB is about to get its highest viewership ever

@John_Chungus_5 This is what they're doing to me at work on Monday.

how your email finds me

@ryanchern Interesting watching adverse selection due to latency arbitrage play out in real time.

On June 13, Polymarket removed the taker delay for all World Cup matches. Here's what a goal looks like without it for the ARG win market at the 85' mark: - 13,848 shares were resting within 5¢ of the ask when the ball crossed - 90% of all cancels occurred within 65ms of each other - First post-goal taker order lands 63ms behind the cancels and picks off less than $800 - Total sniped on a 3x book move: <$1,000 (600+ total active maker addresses, 11 adversely filled)

@TheHillOpinion @shjanalytics I look forward to your comments @shjanalytics

An age old rule: If you're going to critique something, always have your facts straight. - @shjanalytics should not be allowed anywhere near the evaluation of public policy regarding Event Contracts. While yes, there are legitimate concerns about the future of event markets, @shjanalytics is espousing some blatant lies which reveal how ignorant he is about how @Kalshi works. "Betting market platforms, like any gambling entity, must balance the money wagered on both sides to stay in business;" - Event Contract Marketplace's motivation is the EXCHANGE of contracts on the CLOB. Their motivations are not 'balance' the book, but to ensure there is liquidity on both sides of the book. He also confuse correlation with causation (geopolitical control does not equal absolute tradable certainty.) - as despicable as the soldier trading Maduro contracts there was still tail risk that the operation failed and his trade lost money. His analogy to card counting is strange and has little relation to event contract trading; card counting exploits fixed odds, while prediction markets have dynamic live pricing. Finally he makes a statistically baseless claim that insider trading is rampant, by cherry picking cases and conflating it to a run away train of abusive trading.

The dark side of prediction markets is getting even darker tinyurl.com/2s4kewb6

$NFLX - on their earnings call stated Gen AI is optimizing workflows for post production. They're able to create scenes that would either be out of budget or too labor intensive to make (large crowds for example) using Gen AI.

@sahildotcom hold my beer

someone should do TBPN style "signed" posts for prediction markets a bunch of moves being made across teams this summer, which will probably accelerate leading up to this fall

Also I would've loved to jump in the $PYPL space @QTRResearch

Nicely done!

@NickNemo17 "Nick Nemeth, the forward deployed front end design engineer?"

Groupon CPO just posted on Linekdin… Redesign + recommendation algorithms + youth focus + UGC push Gamechanging. $GRPN