Henley Montgomery

@TedPillows @TedPillows SPX/M2 but not QQQ/M2? Cherry-picked. If QQQ had shown your bearish thesis, you'd have posted that instead. Post enough doom and you'll eventually be "right." This isn’t analysis — just a frustrated bear w/out enough stock exposure dressed up as the voice of reason.

S&P 500 compared to the US M2 supply is now the most overvalued ever.

@WhaleNoName Pretty shallow analysis. You probably should delete this one.

🚨 DOTCOM IS BACK AND MATH PROVES IT 🚨 Look at the actual numbers NVIDIA valuation: $5.19T NVIDIA revenue: $80B Walmart valuation: $960B Walmart revenue: $680B NVIDIA is worth 5x more than Walmart while earning 8x less Now think about what's actually driving S&P 500 higher

@TedPillows You seem to view every data point with a half glass empty mindset. On this one in particular, you could easily view this w/ optimism. Don’t you want the most important stock index in the world to outpace the creation of money? I know what your counter argument would be here..

@TedPillows This is valueless nonsense

S&P 500 $SPX current fractal overlayed on the 2000 dot-com bubble looks nearly identical. If this holds, a market correction will happen within 2-4 weeks.

@ColinTCrypto @joeokeefejr This is more a stock market bears talking point than reality. Russell 2000 (IWM) at ATH. Equal weight RSP at ATH. Emerging Mkts (EEM) ATH. Etc

@joeokeefejr Really, it's just like 10 stocks in the s&p500 that are rocketing higher.

For all the Permabulls out there who think $BTC is still in a bull market: The S&P 500 is up there at all-time highs while Bitcoin is dropping. It’s not even that BTC is "failing to keep up as much"— BTC is actually going the *other direction*.

@TedPillows You are just going to say this until the stock markets finally has a big correction. And then tell everyone that you warned them. Nothing unique about your bear porn. It’s the common thread amongst “influencers”. Bear porn also gets more clicks.

US stock market is at its highest level ever. US Consumer Sentiment Index is at its lowest level ever. You know what that means.

@TedPillows Pretty much all of your commentary has a bearish bias to it. But you do sprinkle in some long trades to play both sides of the fence.

Starting to feel like we’re going to miss Jerome Powell the same way crypto ended up missing Gary Gensler and Biden. Markets already crashed right before Kevin Warsh’s first day as Fed Chair. And it seems like things will only get worse.

@edgebellscore @Trader_mcaruso Retail has actually been buying puts at a pretty historic pace. Not saying I know exactly what that means.

Spot on. The VIX rising alongside the SPY is the ultimate 'hidden' warning shot. It usually means institutions are aggressively buying protective puts while the retail crowd is still chasing the momentum. We’re seeing that same fragility in the weekly $QQQ candle today—total rejection at the highs. Tighter stops on those 'late' momentum entries is the only way to play this.

The AI-led bull market still looks young, but it has shifted into a short-term momentum rally. That is fine. Momentum can run much longer than most expect. But momentum-driven rallies are also fragile and can flip quickly once leadership starts to crack. We are beginning to see momentum fade in key leaders such as $SNDK, $MU, and $INTC. At the same time, the $VIX has been rising alongside the $SPY, while $JNK has shown weakness — both warning shots beneath the surface. Markets are not black and white. The best way to handle this environment is to think of your portfolio in layers. Early buys in true leading stocks can often be held through normal consolidations. Late purchases made purely on momentum need much tighter stops to avoid excessive drawdowns. Look at your stocks relative to their 20-day moving averages. Assume each one could quickly fall back to that level and ask whether you are comfortable with that risk. With that in mind: trail stops, sell into strength where appropriate, and adjust accordingly.

@Father_Speaking @Apostate1123 @CBHeresy I’m a white. In a nation of 350 million people, I’m sure what you describe happens. But I’ve sure never experienced it myself. I can’t think of anybody I know personally that has either. I certainly also don’t feel like a victim as a white man.

@Apostate1123 @CBHeresy You should probably have that same talk with the Blacks who make sport of victimizing, attacking and humiliating White People. You won't. Youll get more Chuds. Frankly Chud is fairly moderate.

Watch ChudtheBuilder when he hears the charges and bail conditions. He looks absolutely crushed by the weight of reality suddenly set upon him. And honestly, it’s sad. Not just sad, but tragic. He is 28 years old and a father, and he became drunk on the perception of power — and sometimes invulnerability — that comes with social influence. This is a cautionary tale about the danger of unearned power and influence. For the average person, having tens of thousands of followers here can feel life-changing. Reaching close to 100k can feel like winning the lottery, at first. It can be exhilarating to reach millions of people and feel like you are part of a small elite capable of breaking social media news with the right post or moving tens of thousands of people with a few carefully crafted words. Even in the real world, people begin to treat you differently. It’s ridiculous, but true. When people find out you have a following, they begin to ascribe special significance and power to you that is usually grossly exaggerated. They think you are special and important and capable of doing things for them, and so they begin offering things to you. For people like Chud — young men who have never been “somebody” before — being thrust overnight into social media “stardom” (even if it is lowbrow, C-tier stardom) is intoxicating. Before, you were someone who always had to say “yes sir” and had accepted that life would consist of hard work with little respect or payoff. Now you begin to wonder how high you can climb and how much power, fame, and influence you can amass. It’s so intoxicating that it warps your ability to think rationally. You see the numbers — 200k+ followers and $70k in donations, with more pouring in — coupled with an endless stream of affirmations in your DMs and comments, not the reality that your reputation is being cemented as the guy who walks around calling Black people “n*ggers.” In a matter of weeks or months, you have achieved more influence and reach than most men could ever imagine. But here’s the rub: you did it without the years of hard work and painful lessons most people who achieve that kind of standing endure on the way up. You’ve been handed power and influence absent the wisdom that comes from earning it yourself — and you acquired it not by creating something important or valuable, but through cheap parlor tricks that entertain people who don’t care how this ends for you, only that they are entertained along the way. And so, emboldened, a man like Chud sets out with his camera, gargantuan hubris, and an army of followers telling him to “keep going,” even if that direction leads straight off a cliff. But you don’t see it, because you haven’t earned the wisdom that comes from smaller failures and hard-earned lessons earlier in the journey. Fail? How could you fail when so many people support you? Hundreds of thousands — even millions — are cheering you on. You must be doing something right. And in fact, you become so convinced that you are justified and untouchable because of the hordes you perceive behind you that you grow brazen and reckless, going so far as to predict that this story ends with a “dead chimp” and “me walking free.” And then it happens: your opportunity to “take a stand” and show your audience what this was really all about. But when the police arrive and arrest you, and the discussions begin between your lawyer and the district attorney, you suddenly realize that all your fame, power, and influence were an illusion. It existed on X, but the social capital of X suddenly means very little when standing before a judge and jury who have no idea who ChudtheBuilder is. Your viral posts are no longer impressive; they are evidence — an indictment of a reckless man drunk on power. You are now learning your first real lesson about the pitfalls of power/ influence, but at an apex where the fall is unrecoverable: forgotten and alone in a jail cell.

@OnChainCollege @binance @BinanceResearch I see neither occurring anytime soon. I think $100k happens again but likely not for another year or so. I think it’s more than likely we challenge the lows from a few months ago, but thinking we will hold $50k

Bitcoin's price has dropped below the Long-Term Holder Cost Basis during all prior bear markets. Currently, that level is at $48.6K and has not been reached yet. Do you think BTC hits this level before reaching $100K+ again?

@LawrenceLepard I really don’t see her on there very much anymore, FWIW. Her biggest failing, by far, is dumping out of the Nvidia position a few years ago. What a colossal mistake that was.

And yet she still appear regularly on CNBC and is honored at investment conferences. go figure.

@bensiepel @LawrenceLepard 💯

@LawrenceLepard Great research, poorly designed trading rules. Their strict adherence to rebalancing kills their winners before investors can benefit. Silly to presume that their worst ideas should get more capital at the expense of their best, but this is how it works.

@RomainMarzio @crypto_birb You really think there are that many people out there calling supercycle right now?? Of legit folks, i’ve seen very little of that. The vast majority of investors realize we are in a bear market.

I agree. Too many people are celebrating a simple relief rally as if we already entered a new supercycle. Market structure is still fragile, macro uncertainty remains high, and reclaiming only a fraction of the losses after months of bearish price action is not enough to confirm a real trend reversal. People confuse volatility with strength.

Bulls skip this post. Anyone else, explain this to me: After 27 weeks in bear market we've barely recovered 1/3 of what we lost and noobs celebrate like we hit a new ATH. Long-term resistance (falling SMA200) rejected again. So many signals come together it's absurd to mistake it for a new bull market This industry is so rekt and desperate they call anything that moves a supercycle now. Please tell me where I get this wrong. What am I missing?

@crypto_birb You are creating a lot of strawman arguments with this stuff. There are a lot of people with a lot of different opinions out there. If you are super bearish like yourself, you call “everyone else” a hopeless bull. Bulls do the same in reverse.

@MerlijnTrader @TMillionAdviser Yes, but it’s also not a good market timing signal. The longer a bull market goes, Buffett naturally will have accumulated more cash. I wouldn’t say that he’s really making a statement though. It’s just a reflection of his underlying strategy

@TMillionAdviser True, his cash pile is legendary and always ready for deals. 💰

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Warren Buffett the greatest investor in history just repeated himself. 1999: "Euphoria is the enemy" Walked away from the rally. Result: dot-com crash. Down 78%. 2026: "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now." $400B in cash. Zero purchases. Michael Burry: $1B short on AI. "Feels like 1999." Warren Buffett: $400B in cash. "Worse than 1999." Two of the greatest investors alive. Same year. Same warning. Same answer. Cash. Not stocks. Are you listening?

@mwebster1971 @JC_ParetsX Insightful and unique take. And makes total sense.

J.C. having spent a year or so creating my first Model Book (of many) for Bill (along with Chuck and Ross)of the 1997-1999 timeframe… I can tell you the action of individual stocks is nearly identical to that of stocks from that period. Especially the post October 1998 timeframe! Years later Chuck & I spent many years creating another Model Book for Bill covering the 1880 to 1963 timeframe. The current stocks are acting just like 1928 to late 1929 For those who don’t see it or the newer traders who didn’t trade through the 1995-2000 timeframe…they should go back and study those…it’s a very different type of bull than we’ve had post 2007/09. Sadly when folks hear 1999 they think of March 2000 to October 2002. Or when they hear 1929 they think 1929 to 1932…I think that’s the wrong way to look at it. Facts are facts…the current behavior of individual stocks is identical to 1929 & 1999…if folks don’t see that…I’m not sure what to say…go and study it!!! BUT that doesn’t mean the Oct 1929 crash nor the March 2000 top is near. We could be much closer to the late 1982 timeframe or even 1991 or 1995…or 1932…or…(study history) No one knows where we are in this AI bubble…we could easily be in the 1st or 2nd inning of a bull that goes into extra innings (meaning a decade plus)…but we all also need to understand which playbook to be using…IMHO that’s the 1999 playbook. After all the effort that we put into the 1997-99 “bubble” Model Book I said this is one to just put away and never study again…unless we were in that environment again…I honestly didn’t think I’d live to see it happen again…but here we are! Study history with an OPEN MIND.. and use it!! Hope all is well brother ❤️🤘

Why do people keep comparing today’s market to 1999-2000? I’ve genuinely tried to find the similarities and I’m struggling. Can anyone explain the top conspiracy theories behind why this is supposedly the same environment?

@TXMCtrades A fairly significant % of stocks aren't going vertical

Why do you think BTC is lagging so far behind equities while they go vertical?

@JesseOlson There are so many indicators that bulls or bears can point to that would suggest their predicted outcome MUST happen. Problem is, the sample size is super small. None of you have any edge here with whatever indicator your pointing to as your “proof”

Every $BTC bear market, price has retested this target. Bearish W pattern is playing out in real-time. "Bottom is in" crew called it at $105K, they called it at $85K, and they called it again at $65K. Buy The Right Dip 🤝

I think this is actually what we want to see. We want Saylor to be able to sell without the market panicking and crashing. We don’t need that overhang on us forever. Ideally his first sells are when market is reasonably strong. We don’t want that to be when the market is in freefall because whether true or not, the market will view that as a sign that he’s about to go under. And him going under no doubt would be pretty bad for the market. Also, I just don’t love the idea of a single company having control of so much Bitcoin. Something about that just doesn’t feel right to me. So them having a mechanism to distribute some of their bitcoin back out to “the market” seems healthy…

Let me explain what just happened with Michael Saylor and Bitcoin. For years, the Saylor trade had one sacred rule: never sell the BTC. $MSTR Issue equity. Issue converts. Issue preferreds. Raise dollars. Buy more bitcoin. Repeat forever. The market treated Strategy like a one-way black hole for BTC supply. Until customers stopped buying equity. So he upped the ante with $STRC. STRC is a super high yield dividend stock paying 11% APY, which is.... INSANELY HIGH. Many called it a ponzi because, uh, where does the money come from? Strategy raised $5.58B with STRC in just a few months!! That means the machine now has a recurring cash obligation. Many traders on X beleived this saylor found an infinite money glitch and could keep buying BTC forever sending the price higher and issuing more STRC to spin the wheel harder... BUT today Saylor just admitted that he will have to sell some BTC to fund the STRC dividend. The infinite money glitch only works while capital markets keep funding the loop. Sell STRC, buy BTC, BTC goes up, issue more paper, buy more BTC. This is super logical, obviously he can't just promise fixed yield forever without selling stuff, but it fundamentally alters the narrative that has been driving this relief rally. Saylor / $MSTR are the single largest holder of Bitcoin in the world. When they say they "might sell some" It has the potential to change the dynamic of the entire crypto market. Saylor has proven he's a financial engineering genius, so I'm not gonna make any bold predictions like "ooh this is gonna kill BTC" ... but my friends it's not what you want to read as Bitcoin tries to break out of a bear market range during a midterm year.

@FollowTheScien8 @_checkonchain @_Checkmatey_ He absolutely wrote about this! All thru the peak of the bull market

A major feature of the 2025-26 Bitcoin bear market was the scale of long-dormant supply returning to circulation. Across 2024 and 2025, more than 1.3M BTC held for 5+ years were revived onchain, representing over $110B in rotated capital. Historically, this type of behaviour tends to cluster around major cycle transitions, as experienced holders distribute supply into strong market demand. The chart below shows just how large that wave of revived supply became throughout the cycle. If you want to understand how this Bitcoin bear market actually unfolded beneath the surface, download The Bitcoin Checkpoint → tinyurl.com/bitcoin-checkp…