Ignacio Correa

@RaoulGMI Thanks Raoul, amazing work

@abcampbell @TgMacro @SantiagoAuFund @dailydirtnap @zerohedge Thanks for the work

Had the pleasure of being able to chat food, fertilizer and macro with @TgMacro @SantiagoAuFund and @dailydirtnap over at @zerohedge Tune in live tonight at 7pm EST. zerohedge.com/energy/fertili…

@Pentosh1 Lol

Global equities could 3-5x from here this year if we continue reopening the strait daily with new peace deals

@ChainLinkGod LOL!

Look guys, it's actually really straightforward, a bunch of people staked their ETH on the Ethereum blockchain to earn yield, except they didn't want their capital to be locked up, so they actually staked with a liquid staking protocol called Lido who provided them a liquid staking receipt token called stETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their stETH receipt tokens into a restaking protocol called Eigenlayer, except they didn't want to lock up their capital, so they actually restaked with a liquid restaking protocol called KelpDAO who provided them with a liquid restaking receipt token called rsETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their rsETH tokens into a lending protocol called Aave so that they could open a leveraged looping position that borrows ETH against the rsETH collateral and restakes the ETH into rsETH which is then deposited as collateral, except it turns out rsETH used a cross-chain bridge called LayerZero that was hacked by north koreans causing rsETH to become undercollateralized and now these looping positions are stuck and unprofitable, and everyone is pointing fingers at each other, and also DeFi is a very serious industry

@CSBastiat @tetherwallet No yield

@tetherwallet What’s the catch

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@DannyDayan5 @crossbordercap US liquidity is going up. it seems global liq its going down. I still think we get inflation. But the outlook on equity is wors with global liq going down.

@incorre @crossbordercap I don’t have access to his work but in the note I show liquidity has risen a lot YTD with half in April.

Control. This is one of my most important notes and I strongly recommend it. The Fed is neutral, but FCI, liquidity and money supply are exploding. My inflation models are getting very worrisome. They will lose control if they do not get serious. dannydayan.substack.com/p/control

@Kacper_PK_CH @ConvexDispatch Thanks for the answer. Regarding wheat, are you waiting for the uptrend to resume to invest the other 1/2? On break of the actual range?

@incorre @ConvexDispatch I'm in 1/2 wheat position Sep, and full Soybean Oil - front month. Got stopped on corn, roughly breakeven, will look for another entry.

AGRICULTURE Always moves with a lag, and I'm afraid it's already too late to reverse it, even if war ends tomorrow. For many in US the potential effects are not yet as obvious as in Asia and Africa. It'll be messy and volatile, so one should prepare for that if this is something you want to trade. SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK • COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend • SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend • LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend • WHEAT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend • CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend • ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend • SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend • CANOLA – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK • SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend • LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways • CORN – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways • ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK • WHEAT – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative • CORN – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative $CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

@Kacper_PK_CH @ConvexDispatch Hi Kacper, thanks for the work. Are you in any position in grain for q3 or q4?

Thank you for good words! Yes, running the numbers it'd be Q3-Q4. If you're trading futures it's quite crucial to choose the proper contracts. For wheat we're trading +5% for Dec from spot last time I checked, it takes more attention when we're in deep contago or backwardation.

@HeadedNine Where are you getting that anual rate?

Trying my hand at $CL here. New range to work with. Down 20% and getting paid funding at annual rate of 574.31% is worth a shot. Show me ships.

Food for thought. Trump, Hormuz and the End of the Free Ride For half a century, Western strategists have known that the Strait of Hormuz is the acute point where energy, sea power and political will intersect. That knowledge is not in dispute. What is new in this war with Iran is that the United States, under Donald Trump, has chosen not to rush to “solve” the problem. In Hegelian terms, he is refusing an easy synthesis in order to force the underlying contradiction to the surface. The old thesis was simple: the US guarantees open sea lanes in the Gulf, and everyone else structures their economies and politics around that free insurance. Europe and the UK embraced ambitious green policies, ran down hard‑power capabilities and lectured Washington on multilateral virtue, secure in the assumption that American carriers would always appear off Hormuz. The political class behaved as if the American security guarantee were a law of nature, not a contingent choice. Their conduct today is closer to Chamberlain than Churchill: temporising, issuing statements, hoping the storm will pass without a fundamental reordering of their responsibilities. Trump’s antithesis is to withhold the automatic guarantee at the moment of maximum stress. Militarily, the US can break Iran’s residual ability to contest the Strait; that is not the binding constraint. The point is to delay that act. By allowing a closure or semi‑closure to bite, Trump ensures that the immediate pain is concentrated in exactly the jurisdictions that have most conspicuously free‑ridden on US power: the EU and the UK. Their industries, consumers and energy‑transition assumptions are exposed. In that context, his reported blunt message to European and British leaders, you need the oil out of the Strait more than we do; why don’t you go and take it? Is not a throwaway line. It is the verbalisation of the antithesis. It openly reverses the traditional presumption that America will carry the burden while its allies emote from the sidelines. In this dialectic, the prize is not simply the reopening of a chokepoint. The prize is a reordered system in which the United States effectively arbitrages and controls the global flow of oil. A world in which US‑aligned production in the Americas plus a discretionary capability to secure,or not secure, Hormuz places Washington at the centre of the hydrocarbon chessboard. For that strategic end, a rapid restoration of the old status quo would be counterproductive. A quick, surgical “fix” of Hormuz would short‑circuit the dialectic. If Trump rapidly crushed Iran’s remaining coastal capabilities, swept the mines and escorted tankers back through the Strait, Europe and the UK would heave a sigh of relief and return to business as usual: underfunded militaries, maximalist green posturing and performative disdain for US power, all underwritten by that same power. The contradiction between their dependence and their posture would remain latent. By declining to supply the synthesis on demand, and by explicitly telling London and Brussels to “go and take it” themselves, Trump forces a reckoning. European and British leaders must confront the fact that their energy systems, their industrial bases and their geopolitical sermons all rest on an American hard‑power foundation they neither finance nor politically respect. The longer the contradiction is allowed to unfold, the stronger the eventual synthesis can be: a new order in which access to secure flows, Hormuz, Venezuela and beyond, is explicitly conditional on real contributions, not assumed as a right. In that sense, the delay in “taking” the Strait, and the challenge issued to US allies to do it themselves, is not indecision. It is the negative moment Hegel insisted was necessary for history to move. Only by withholding the old guarantee, and by saying so out loud to those who depended on it, can Trump hope to end the free ride.

Yesterday we reached an agreement with the Department of War for deploying advanced AI systems in classified environments, which we requested they make available to all AI companies. We think our deployment has more guardrails than any previous agreement for classified AI deployments, including Anthropic's. Here's why: openai.com/index/our-agre…

@qthomp @ForwardGuidance @Tyler_Neville_ @fejau_inc Lol, good idea.

Going forward will be posting our weekly @ForwardGuidance chartbook in a downloadable PDF format on the blog app. This way if you don't want to see @Tyler_Neville_'s face on Youtube but still want to see what economics our quant @fejau_inc is diving deep on, you can 🤣😂

@AahanPrometheus 100% bitcoin

Oh no Prometheus is going to update this today 100% free

⭕️ BREAKING: UN Committee Against Torture: Israel now has a “de facto State policy of organized and widespread torture and ill-treatment” that has “gravely intensified” since October 7. The UN Committee is made up of ten independent UN experts and periodically monitors states’ compliance with the Convention against Torture, issuing binding assessments of state conduct. Their latest findings of Israel’s conduct include repeated severe beatings, dog attacks, electrocution, waterboarding, prolonged stress positions, sexual violence, humiliation such as being forced to act like animals or being urinated on, denial of medical care, excessive restraints causing amputations, surgery without anaesthetic, exposure to extreme heat or cold, deprivation of food, water, hygiene, clothing, sleep, and the use of hallucinogens on detainees. The Committee found at least 75 Palestinians have died in custody since October 7 amid a deliberate state policy of collective punishment, with autopsies showing signs of torture, malnutrition and untreated medical conditions — and no officials held accountable. Israel has also suspended ICRC access to detainees. It warned that Israel’s sweeping administrative detention regime has reached “unprecedented” scale, with Palestinians held for months without charge, denied lawyers for up to 15 days, and presented to judges after 12 days. Settlers, however, were exempted from the same military order. Under the Unlawful Combatants Law, Palestinians — including older people, disabled people, pregnant women and children — have been detained in groups without individualized assessment, held incommunicado, and placed outside legal protection in what the Committee says amounts to enforced disappearance. The Committee further warned that Israel’s cumulative policies — the blockade on aid, destruction of civilian infrastructure, forced displacement, and a system of movement restrictions and segregation — may amount to torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment of the Palestinian population as a whole. (Photo: Addameer)

@krugermacro Alex thanks for the work man!

Some strangers on X are very upset with me because I bull-posted in the last month and then I dared to say I sold. So I want to say a few things for perspective, as well as provide an update on market views. I use this account for entertainment and for sharing macro thoughts, bigger picture views, and my thought process. This account is not a paid service. I do not share trades. Sharing trades on X is unfeasible, particularly so for people like myself who trade the tape daily, without knowing for how long entries will last. For many traders trading is not a matter of "entry/target/stop and wait". The process is dynamic. I would need to keep an active Telegram channel or large room for sharing trades. I did sell, multiple times. I've had a large core BTC position since right after Liberation Day in April, and when the market is collapsing against me or I have too much money on the line, I sell/short/buy puts. Risk management. I can decide to trade and execute in seconds when abnormal volume or news surface. Keeps me safe. The post I'm quoting (below) contains a set of macro catalysts I shared earlier this month and it has been spot on. Nailed the shutdown, missed the BTC selling level by an inch (107.5 top vs 108-109 selling area), nailed the Fed's stance (which was non consensus at the time, and flipped today on Williams), and will likely nail most of the rest (maybe not the tariffs part, that's a coin toss). Bitcoin dropped much more than I anticipated. I thought we would see a replay of May 2021 (given the sudden OI wipeout), and 98k max; we replayed May 2022 instead. I don’t have a crystal ball and I never claimed to. I would have loved to help readers more effectively in the last month. I help often and for free, as evidenced by the thousands of exchanges I have with strangers asking for help and information on my replies and DMs. My view has been for half a year the big BTC uptrend would happen in 2026 not in 2025, and I did talk about a major DATs driven top happening in November, as well as the market needing two months to recover from 10/10. That view is based on the expectation of the Fed going considerably incrementally dovish in 2026, a much larger fiscal impulse in Q1 and Q2 from Trump's fiscal package, and continued AI capex growth. I've been bullish macro post December FOMC and bullish BTC after December. That view has kept me longer than ideal on the way down. It's been expensive. I'm down 20%-25% from ATHs on the crypto side of things (much less in equities). Painful. I'm still up more Xs since 2023 than I have fingers, and whoever has decided to follow me all along has done very well. Making mistakes is part of the game. What matters is how we handle the mistakes, to survive, and to relentlessly stand up and keep on going. Positioning wise, I'm now very long BTC low 80s from today, although not fully positioned and I'm not planning to hold all of those entries for long. I also bought a lot of calls overnight. This I will hold. If price keeps on tanking I'll be buying December and January calls (more interest in January). Betting on going back above 93-94 by end of December (crash too extreme) and to the 50 WMA by end of January (~25 deltas). For BTC in particular, from a bigger picture TA standpoint the areas to bid are here (multiple fibs and a major trendline here) and 68-75 (wide area!). Levels to the upside are 88, 93-94, 98 and 102-103~50WMA (bullish above, bearish below), with the latter being the new bull-bear pivot. I think re-testing 98 to the 50WMA are high odds, and we'll see what happens after. Also think it's now fair to say 10/10 was more akin to the Luna crash, and today may have represented the 3AC crash. We can be certain many market participants just died. Good luck everyone!

@dampedspring @DannyDayan5 🤣

@DannyDayan5 I commented on the substack too. Did George drive him off Twitter? Seems to be the final straw at least right?

Nice work particularly that risky assets aren't driven by reserves. A question Am I reading this correctly that you are predicting 2026 bank reserve increases of 240-360BN? Which is 8-12% annual pace? Is that the amount of TBILLs purchased and that will serve to offset some unknown pace of reserve depletion due to CIC expansion while adding to the annual reserve growth provided by IORB? Can you break down your prediction of 20-30BN monthly? I see CIC related reserves drain of 5.5% annual pace IORB related reserve expansion at 3.5% annual pace Resulting in 2% net drain if doing nothing. Do you agree? 2% drain is a need to buy bills at 4.6BN monthly for standstill Assuming reserves need to grow with the economy and GDP growth assumption is 4% I see a need for 6% per annum growth given above 2% net drain. Yet you are projecting 8-12%. Why is that?

@bryan_johnson Good luck my friend

5g of magic mushrooms x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@RaymondDuck6 @agnostoxxx @hkuppy Lol

@agnostoxxx At least one capitalist is happy with the result! @hkuppy

Congrats to New Yorkers for becoming European! 🤭

How do you say "f*** ChatGPT" in French? 😉