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@manlio0914

New Yorker, Hong Konger, Beijinger, Virginian.

New York, USA Katılım Mayıs 2015
492 Takip Edilen102 Takipçiler
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TH@manlio0914·
@BethanyAllenEbr You're conflating "democracy" (where there is no aristocracy ruling the rest) and "liberal democracy", which is a political system with one-person-one-vote elections. Countries are calling themselves a democracy, but not a liberal democracy. The latter is losing credibility.
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Bethany 貝書穎
Bethany 貝書穎@BethanyAllenEbr·
It seems like autocracies are gaining ground, but take heart — the world still reveres democracy. Many authoritarian governments pretend to be democratic, but no democratic government in the world pretends to be authoritarian.
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TH@manlio0914·
@DavidLiptonWI @Bluebearmonkey "China has emerged as the leading global power in the creation of emerging technologies, dramatically outperforming the United States in the vast majority of critical technological fields."
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Blue Bear
Blue Bear@Bluebearmonkey·
Average Nanjing University student is +2.4 standard deviations above gaokao mean. Average MIT SAT score of 1550 is +2.4 standard deviation above US mean. US SAT mean of 1,000 SATs is functionally retarded vs. China’s 470 gaokao mean.
TH@manlio0914

@Linahuaa I get the culture point, but the "better math prep" part is retarded. The idea that a 24 yo who went to MIT engineering undergrad is not as good at math or mathematical reasoning as one who went to Nanjing University is just stupid. The HS they went to makes no difference.

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TH@manlio0914·
@DavidLiptonWI @Bluebearmonkey Ah, yes, I forgot about telecom equipment. China is the clear leader in 6G equipment. Also, in ultra high voltage products.
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Special Providence Poster (GDP Stan)
Special Providence Poster (GDP Stan)@DavidLiptonWI·
@manlio0914 @Bluebearmonkey Further - China is behind in countless product verticals including energy (fracking equipment, transmission/distribution equipment; gas turbines; sustainable aviation fuel and MTO equipment), chemicals, aerospace (large civil aircraft), capital software (DBMS, OS, ERPs, etc)
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TH@manlio0914·
@DavidLiptonWI @Bluebearmonkey This is not true. China is in the lead or tied for the lead in most tech product verticals, including consumer electronics, computers, mobile phones, drones, EVs, flying cars, robots, renewables, HSR, etc.
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Special Providence Poster (GDP Stan)
Special Providence Poster (GDP Stan)@DavidLiptonWI·
@Bluebearmonkey And even presuming they have this - doesn’t China perpetually lagging the technological frontier in countless product verticals and being hopelessly dependent on American technology imports indicate that the mafs theory of human capital needs serious re-evaluation?
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TH@manlio0914·
@AChineseCentury @McFaul Good point. That may be the final catalyst for the US transition to empire/dictatorship. Possibly some type of civil war first.
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Chinese Century
Chinese Century@AChineseCentury·
@McFaul The worst thing that can happen to freedom, liberty and democracy is the day the US goes to war with China. Freedom, liberty and democracy in the US wouldn't survive such a war, let alone in Taiwan.
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Michael McFaul
Michael McFaul@McFaul·
Some of us actually care about the fact that Taiwan is a democracy. The PRC is not. But I realize that mine may be an outdated, old-school view these days. There once was a time when America stood for freedom, liberty, and democracy and not just chips.
The All-In Podcast@theallinpod

Chamath: Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance in 18 Months @chamath: “ We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today. Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us. And so as we scale up our chip fabs, as we get more capacity, and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed. I don't know if you guys saw, but Neuralink was showcasing a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operations for the implantation, all automatically. When you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today. Today, it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan.”

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TH@manlio0914·
@McFaul Luckily ideologues like you who would get us into a losing and potentially catastrophic war to protect "democracy" on the other side of the world are no longer the mainstream in the administration. Hopefully you're right that your viewpoint is outdated and won't be coming back.
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TH@manlio0914·
@Bluebearmonkey @Linahuaa Regarding Beijing vs provinces, nah. Compare with Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. My lived experience tells me if you're from those provinces and went to PKU or THU in a competitive major (not just STEM) you are a certified genius. Not exactly true if you are from BJ.
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Blue Bear
Blue Bear@Bluebearmonkey·
@manlio0914 @Linahuaa The idea that US “everyone founded a bogus charity” admissions does a better job is even more stoopid. 🙄 And Beijing admissions for 清北 is just as if not more competitive than the provinces. Tsinghua students understand this intuitively.
Blue Bear@Bluebearmonkey

@leiyilu @Why__Knot 北京考进清华率超过河南几十倍. 这是很正常的. 北京平均IQ是115. 河南平均IQ是95. 这差距会造成几十倍的清华水平的学生.

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LinaHua
LinaHua@Linahuaa·
DeepSeek is reportedly auto-rejecting Chinese applicants who went to America for undergraduate. Having an undergrad from America usually means you went through the international school pipeline, which usually means that you had much less rigorous math training. It also means you're culturally White, and probably a bad fit for them. I have lots of students from Shanghai American School (#1 international school in the city)- and they have tons of bullshit filler classes like choir, abstract art, reading books about disabled/morbidly obese kids and writing essays about why fatshaming is bad. As the result- they're far behind in math and science. And they're somehow less competent at music and arts too because they skip the foundation and go straight to vibe-painting and virtue-yapping. American education is of very low quality imo... this isn't a China glazing post btw- I would take the average German grad from 20 years ago over today's American grads too. I would also take the average German (from 20 years ago) over the average Singaporean and Chinese.
LinaHua tweet media
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TH@manlio0914·
@Bluebearmonkey @jasonbourne4206 @Linahuaa Butt Bear, making dumbass arguments like this just makes you sound like a dumbass. PKU and Tsinghua get uber smart kids undergrad, but so does MIT, because the geniuses outside of China are applying to MIT, not Tsinghua.
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TH@manlio0914·
@__abba__ @Bluebearmonkey @Linahuaa Even in terms of skill level. I personally have never met someone I would say is so smart they aren't "normal", unless they have autism. There is a spectrum in terms of talent and IQ, but the top performers in business and academia are not necessarily the highest IQ people.
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TH@manlio0914·
@Bluebearmonkey @Linahuaa The idea that only the gaokao track produces, or identifies, geniuses is stupid. That said, I'd agree that a Tsinghua grad who is not from Beijing is more of a sure bet than an MIT or Stanford grad.
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Blue Bear
Blue Bear@Bluebearmonkey·
@manlio0914 @Linahuaa Definitely 800 on mafs but not gonna be 1600, bro. MIT may be different in that they get a handful of IMO medalists from China. But I assure you that’s about the only exception. All the other schools get the püssy non-gaokao track.
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TH@manlio0914·
@__abba__ @Bluebearmonkey @Linahuaa You seriously think super geniuses are not "normal people"? I'm sure some super geniuses are abnormal, but most are "normal". There's no differentiation.
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__abba__
__abba__@__abba__·
@Bluebearmonkey @manlio0914 @Linahuaa Also, elite Chinese grads, like elite American grads, are mostly normal people, not super geniuses. Source is first hand experience working with both people from MIT and Tshingua.
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TH@manlio0914·
@Bluebearmonkey @Linahuaa Yeah, but if the kid is Chinese he almost certainly had a 1600 to get into MIT. The uber elite go to MIT. You can't say the same for any Chinese uni other than PKU and THU.
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Blue Bear
Blue Bear@Bluebearmonkey·
@manlio0914 @Linahuaa Average Nanjing University student is +2.4 standard deviations above gaokao mean. Average MIT SAT score of 1550 is +2.4 standard deviation above US mean. US SAT mean of 1,000 SATs is functionally retarded vs. China’s 470 gaokao mean.
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TH@manlio0914·
@dnlklr @vtchakarova 🤣🤣🤣🤣This is some crazy delusion here. The US getting humiliated in a war against Iran that used up a significant portion of US munitions, which the US has a hard time replacing due to Chinese restrictions on RE exports -- that "forced" China to delay its fictional plan??
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TH@manlio0914·
@vtchakarova Or maybe they never had a 2027 plan, and they don't currently have a 2030-32 plan. The Pentagon will always claim China has a plan that's not so imminent that they look stupid when it doesn't happen, but close enough that it justifies more military spending. Always ~5 years out.
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TH@manlio0914·
@RobertMCutler Yeah, "power transition theory" would never catch on. The beauty of "Thucydides Trap" is it's a super simple concept with an erudite-sounding name. The Kindleberger Trap is a much more interesting and subtle concept but it's too complicated to catch on like Thucydides Trap has.
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Robert M. Cutler
Robert M. Cutler@RobertMCutler·
1. Organski's "power transition theory" had empirical specification. acsu.buffalo.edu/~fczagare/PSC%… 2. Thucydides ref. is one line in History of the Peloponnesian War and not a "trap". 3. “Thucydides Trap” is power transition theory with a classical veneer and a Washington policy hook.
TH@manlio0914

@RobertMCutler The concept wasn't novel when Allison wrote his book and wasn't novel when Organski wrote his book. It's a basic concept that's been around since Thucydides. The only thing novel is the catchy name, so yes Allison deserves the credit.

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TH@manlio0914·
@RobertMCutler The concept wasn't novel when Allison wrote his book and wasn't novel when Organski wrote his book. It's a basic concept that's been around since Thucydides. The only thing novel is the catchy name, so yes Allison deserves the credit.
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Robert M. Cutler
Robert M. Cutler@RobertMCutler·
This is your occasional reminder that Graham Allison stole the "Thucydides Trap" from A.F.K. Organski, 𝘞𝘰𝘳𝘭𝘥 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴 (1958), and just gave it a catchy name.
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TH@manlio0914·
@richimedhurst Ain't nobody moving manufacturing to the US (other than purely to supply the US market) at these exchange rates.
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Richard Medhurst
Richard Medhurst@richimedhurst·
Moreover, as Europe and Asia continue buying US energy at war time prices, the companies that manage to survive will move to the US, deindustrializing America's two largest competitors, and taking all their capital with them— both of which strengthen the Petrogas-Dollar further.
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Richard Medhurst
Richard Medhurst@richimedhurst·
The US are the strongest they have ever been geopolitically. The Petrogas-Dollar is now safely anchored between two oceans, like their industrial base. They have Iran and Russia bogged down, Venezuela and Syria toppled, maybe Cuba soon, and forced China to depend on US energy.
Richard Medhurst@richimedhurst

Remember the mass-hysteria, insisting Mileikowsky was gone, because they desperately wanted it to be true? Many do the same thing with the US pirate state. But that is just wishful thinking — not serious reporting or geopolitical analysis. It is very much alive, and scheming.

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Andre Longginou
Andre Longginou@AndreLongginou·
Fox News Is Lying About China... In this short video I debunk Bret Baier's lies about China, as he tries to spin stories and attempt to get gotcha moments to create false rumours about China. I live in China - so let me tell you the truth... @FoxNews @BretBaier
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Keşfet

@BethanyAllenEbr @DavidLiptonWI @Bluebearmonkey @AChineseCentury @McFaul @Linahuaa @jasonbourne4206 @__abba__