@policytensor Basically what I'm getting at is a full reopening of the strait under a tolling scenario faces similar hurdles from the lobby as offering credible sanctions relief to make a deal happen
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Φίλιππος
7.2K posts
@policytensor Even Iran is describing this policy in a way that makes clear the volume of shipping they see flowing through the strait under this regime is serverely reduced vs pre-war. x.com/phileeppos/sta…
Φίλιππος@phileeppos
Not tolls, just "insurance" you have to buy from us so we don't hurt you. Also the bit about expected revenue and infrastructure limiting the scale implies 3 ships a day at a rate of $2 million/ship. Even suppose they drop the rate to $200k, that's still only 30 ships
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Not just the tollbooth. There is not going to be a deal on the nuclear file as well without substantial sanctions relief of the sort that remains highly improbable given the capture of Washington, DC. The choice is to tie our hands on the economic weapon or accept a nuclear Iran. There is no other choice left.
See my policytensor.substack.com/p/does-iran-ev….
Policy Tensor@policytensor
Brian, it’s not just that the Chinese have refused to SAY that they are opposed to tolls. It is that even the Chinese cannot get the Iranians to abandon the tollbooth unless they can enforce discipline on the West to remove all sanctions on Iran permanently. And this they cannot credibly promise to do, ultimately because of the capture of Washington, DC, by the Israel lobby. It’s very hard to see anyone compelling DC to provide sanctions relief. And so the tollbooth is going to stay.
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@policytensor @nadirabid What do you think a "thin" deal to reopen the strait looks like though? Suppose US totally yields and asks for nothing on the nuclear file. Even then Iran's other demands for simply resuming negotiations to reopen the strait are still onerous
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@nadirabid Yes, I have grown less confident in a deal. But a deal that reopens Hormuz should obtain. Now I think it'll be thinner than before (just reopen the damn strait and not much less besides) and not include any agreement on the nuclear file.
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I keep hearing these assertions that I was wrong. What was I wrong about? Can no one come up with a single material instance? gtfooh
Dejika 🥝@DejikaDonatova
Iran twitter analyst power rankings S tier @HamidRezaAz @citrinowicz A tier @MaloneySuzanne (Lower bc less longform) POWER GAP B tier @gbrew24 @policytensor (Both often wrong but interesting in diff genres) C tier: @laurnorman D tier: Fintwit randos F tier: @FDD
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Not tolls, just "insurance" you have to buy from us so we don't hurt you. Also the bit about expected revenue and infrastructure limiting the scale implies 3 ships a day at a rate of $2 million/ship. Even suppose they drop the rate to $200k, that's still only 30 ships
Babak Vahdad@BabakVahdad
According to Iranian sources Tehran is reportedly studying a post-war model for the “management” of the Strait of Hormuz based not on formal closure or direct transit tolls, but on insurance mechanisms tied to Iranian-controlled maritime security services. - The reported logic is highly strategic. Under international law Tehran would face major difficulties imposing direct tolls on ships transiting Hormuz after the war. Instead, Iran could offer “safe transit,” insurance coverage and related maritime services, creating what is effectively a civilian commercial system of operational control over the Strait. - The mechanism would also allow Iran to obtain enhanced informational oversight of maritime traffic and distinguish vessels by nationality and affiliation. In practice, this could potentially allow selective pressure, differentiated risk management and closer monitoring of ships linked to hostile states. - The proposal reportedly follows Iran’s wartime declaration that “the security of the Strait of Hormuz is under the control of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic.” Iranian sources openly argue that, after the damage Tehran says it suffered from the passage of “enemy vessels,” some form of long-term Iranian management of Hormuz should remain in place permanently. - Interestingly, the sources acknowledge limits to the plan. Even in the best-case scenario, revenues from maritime services are estimated at around $2 billion annually, while infrastructure constraints would limit the scale of services Iran could realistically provide. - What makes the proposal particularly notable is that it is reportedly being discussed through the Ministry of Economy and legal-commercial frameworks rather than presented purely as an IRGC Navy military project. This gives the concept a far more civilian and internationally defensible appearance while still preserving a significant degree of Iranian operational influence over the world’s most strategic energy chokepoint. - I am not sure this model would be workable as long as the current sanctions regime remains in place. #Iran #IranWar
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@161phi @prpl8 @sidprabhu My base case is not that Iran pushes this out to November. But given who's in charge there you can't really rule it out. Trump probably caves way before that, but also he is constrained by Israel and their lobby, so he may be trapped. IRGC will go down in flames before they cave
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@161phi @prpl8 @sidprabhu You're projecting MAGA materialistic nihilism onto the enemy. Thought we'd be done with this after people were saying for a month that Ghalibaf was a Delcy Rodriguez type who'd take the money and run and then nothing happened.
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I had a dream that this would be the reverse of US embassy hostage release in Iran 1980 and that Iran keeps strait closed until new Congress is sworn in and it makes a deal with Democratic Senate Majority Leader
JH@CRUDEOIL231
@agnostoxxx 's NACHO—Not A Chance Hormuz Opens If things keep going like this, it’ll be the quote of the year. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! #oott #iran
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Back down to 0 tankers today. It seems the surge in Chinese traffic over the prior 2 days may have been a one time quid pro quo
Φίλιππος@phileeppos
Don't see 30 Chinese ships exiting the strait on AIS, I counted ~10. Below are the tankers over the last two days. Yuan Hua Hu - VLCC - CN -> Tania Star - LPG - IN* -> NV Sunshine - LPG - CN -> Royal H - LPG - IQ* -> Swift Falcon - oil (300k) - IQ -> Trend - oil (tiny) - IQ ->
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This guy is a masterclass in confirmation bias. For 11 weeks he's been eating up every bit of Axios/Pakistan mediator/Trump admin "a deal any day now" slop that's proven fake again and again. Now the slop is starting to lean the other way and finally he recognizes it as slop lol
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This logic is backwards. Deal or not: UAE will build a bypass, other bypasses will be built, the world will decarbonize and bring other production online. Hormuz is a weapon with an expiration date so Iran has every interest in using it to maximum effect *right now*
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno
Again, Iran needs to strike a deal unless they want the strait of Hormuz to be made redundant
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Oil is not reacting to these pump headlines anymore 🤔
zerohedge@zerohedge
*CHINA SAYS THE WAR SHOULD NOT CONTINUE *CHINA TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIDDLE EAST PEACE: MOFA *CHINA URGES TO SOLVE IRAN NUCLEAR ISSUE THROUGH DIALOGUE *CHINA CALLS FOR ENSURING GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN STABILITY
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This is wishcasting and worth noting this is one of the accounts that predicted IRGC capitulation from the blockade. If this message was intended for China why would he tweet it in Arabic? It's obviously aimed at the gulf states
Zineb Riboua@zriboua
Xi-Trump Summit is making IRGC nervous, Xi saying that the Strait of Hormuz should be open is being read in Tehran as great betrayal, see here: IRGC throwing digs at China: “Those who betray in secret will be exposed.”
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@briangobosox Iran's economy was already so bad before this war that there were riots that had to be suppressed with widespread slaughter of their own civilian population. That was *before* we killed off all the moderates and empowered the hardliners. That's who you're dealing with
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@briangobosox Does the IRGC care? They were predicting a fold two weeks after the blockade, here we are a month later and Iran just resubmitted roughly the same maximalist demands as ever. The question is who will fold first, not who is taking more damage
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I really don't understand this idea that "we're losing" b/c unleaded went from $3 to $4.50. The economy has shown no ill effects, stocks are ripping, we lost minimal personnel, and we've spent about 10 basis points of GDP (while Iran has suffered 50%+ in damages). 🤷♂️
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion
We're losing to Iran because we have no way to bring down their government, and they can inflict economic damage on us by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which we are powerless to prevent them from doing.
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So I nailed this but it had essentially no effect on oil markets and isn't even being treated like a major headline by US media. Jawbone is being faded. Markets will need to see concrete action like lifting the blockade for the next pump x.com/RapidResponse4…
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47
.@POTUS: President Xi would like to see a deal made. He said, 'If I can be of any help at all, I would like to be of help.' Anybody that buys that much oil has obviously got some kind of relationship, but he'd like to see the Hormuz Strait open.
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The pump headlines over the next two days about how China is ready to help the US reopen hormuz are going to be a lot of fun. Will be an excellent time to buy more oil calls
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
The US openly admits it needs China on Iran. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the White House is trying to convince Beijing "to play a more active role in getting Iran to walk away from what they’re doing now, and trying to do now, in the Persian Gulf."
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Don't see 30 Chinese ships exiting the strait on AIS, I counted ~10. Below are the tankers over the last two days.
Yuan Hua Hu - VLCC - CN ->
Tania Star - LPG - IN* ->
NV Sunshine - LPG - CN ->
Royal H - LPG - IQ* ->
Swift Falcon - oil (300k) - IQ ->
Trend - oil (tiny) - IQ ->
Φίλιππος@phileeppos
Over the last two days: CR Tethys - oil (300k) - CN -> Xin Ming Long - LPG - CN -> Quar - oil (300k) -CN -> Deepblue - oil (300k) - CN -> Starway - oil (300k) - CN <- Silver Dawn - oil (300k) - CN <-
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