manohar

1.5K posts

manohar

manohar

@sriee_m

Mudigere, India Katılım Nisan 2015
407 Takip Edilen249 Takipçiler
manohar
manohar@sriee_m·
In order to export coffee to new markets and gain market share during a supply squeeze seen past 5 years such statements are made, in fact there are big trading houses which have taken over huge farms to produce coffee and get farmers involved in farming coffee for them. The X factor will always be weather @rohlfs_werner just pointed out climate change global warming and weather risk will always remain. The coffee sell off is taking place as if there is no frost season ahead . We can distribute all the seedling we want still farmers need fertilizer, inputs to care for the plants and supportive weather to produce that crop to earn decent living wage, But the question is does uganda really have the infrastructure to produce process and export 20 million bags even if the prices continue to stay at these levels is what we will need answering in 2030. PRICE is what gets farmer interest up right now they aren't going crazy over coffee you can see it. Let's see how this post ages by Feb 28th 2027🤣 La nina just collapsed like a deck of cards.
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Ryan Delany
Ryan Delany@CoffeeNinjaRyan·
New Blog: A Hard Look at Uganda's 20M Bag Coffee Goal In this article, we look at the Uganda’s production surge analyze whether they are on track to hit its ambitious target of 20M bags production by 2030. coffeetradingacademy.com/post/a-hard-lo…
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Thyunij
Thyunij@Thuttu4·
I only share this with people who really know about coffee plants 🥺
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manohar
manohar@sriee_m·
@Thuttu4 this are trade house hired bots who speak nonsense you continue to focus on sharing the reality of the situation they did not see this coming there is panic there forecasts there is talk of demand problems they expected to ride on the vietnam supply. This is panic in full display.
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Thyunij
Thyunij@Thuttu4·
What does it mean for coffee prices to "return to normal"? Does it mean the price drops by half, right? Those greedy bastards... I won't grow coffee just to shoulder debt and make you all rich.
p.J D.@pJD1620715

@optima_t @Frye_WSS 1/2 #coffee went crazy up, about 50% higher #KC over 3 months, due to mainly tariffs, and other weather related issues & speculative hype, but #'s don't lie, and sooner or later, the reasons that brough it up by 50% will vanish and #coffee will be back to normal.

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Ben Noll
Ben Noll@BenNollWeather·
New ECMWF guidance shows a rapid turn from La Niña to El Niño in early 2026. Unusually warm water in the West Pacific could soon be transported eastward, sparking El Niño. It's early, but if this happens, global temperatures and moisture levels will rise next year into 2027.
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Mike
Mike@F4tailhook·
Conspicuous consumption is rampant everywhere. Debt levels are very high. Spending will be cut, but Coffee will be one of the last things to go imo.
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Werner Rohlfs
Werner Rohlfs@rohlfs_werner·
@jihlenburg Stupid question; The "coffee" that we see in trading platforms like 377 right now - is that just Arabica or a mixture with Robusta? If the latter, how much is each component?
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Werner Rohlfs
Werner Rohlfs@rohlfs_werner·
#coffee 340 would be the 50% retracement. And if we get a bit more rain longer + those big harvests from non-Brazil countries, we may even reach the 62% retracement.
ピロコ氏。@rrhizome

@rohlfs_werner 355 then 348 then 340 support to watch- Vietnam harvest expected to be record this Sep - Dec- plus Indonesian export has increased too- we are very much focused on the Brazil production(of course biggest producer) but we are not counting in an increase from other countries

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manohar
manohar@sriee_m·
Forecasts are all over the places I would rely more on what farmers have to say in the coming weeks rather then analysts and agronomist at this point of time. Also to this mess you have tariff uncertainty it's plain stupid that farmers have to deal with this after entire years of hardwork to get that produces in jiffy top consumers can hold gun upto you and say we will not buy inspite of the supply shortages markets collapsed in panic. Let's see how the upcoming coffee year goes no doubt Brazil has had bad start with hailStrom frost and cold temperatures the weeks ahead will decide the sustainability of these markets. September numbers show Brazilian farmer selling has accelerated.
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manohar
manohar@sriee_m·
All eyes 👀👀 on Brazilian 2026-2027 crop flowering and development. That will dictate prices for a few weeks rains have commenced in several regions over the past 7 days. No doubt there is tremendous interest to farm coffee by farmers who have never had anything to do with coffee their entire lives. But farmers who have farmed coffee their entire lives for generations are increasingly getting cautious as coffee farming is getting increasingly a dangerous gamble to make a living out of. We keep seeing reports of record profits and how certain farmers hit record production numbers what the reports don't highlight the amount of inputs and funding that was poured to achieve those levels of production we saw it in April where Brazilian farmers had to sell a lion share of their connies at 2.73$/kg We all start of with record crop prospects but the time we harvest and sell with all the weather hazards that occur to many farmers breaking even is still a tough job. The markets will push out inefficient producers if the production starts to tick up its best coffee farmers around the globe bet on other crops but i doubt they are any mood to slow down.
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manohar
manohar@sriee_m·
Favourable weather in indonesia Increased exports july 2025 exports 70% higher compared to July 2024 April 2024-july 2024 vs April 2025-july 2025 exports up by 243% in the same period of 2025. Uganda July 2025 exports were reported at monthly record Even certain agencies report uganda has exported 8 million bags in the current coffee year. (Would mean a record there to if true I cannot confirm this ) Brazil High robusta prices farmer went over board to produce a record crop where certain entities say harvested connies was as high as 24 million bags in 2025 even conab acknowledged production is up 37.2% compared to 2024 at 20 million bags+ Vietnam crop continues to be optimistic for 2026 supply last year vietnam shortfall meant there was good demand for brazilian connies this year brazilian connies have been lagging. @CoffeeNinjaRyan says slight surplus of robusta even tho post crop losses have some tightness.
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Ujjval
Ujjval@U_Jaipuria·
Is there a suitable explanation for why the arabica market has been relatively stable compared to the robusta market? Complete blood bath this week for RC @CoffeeNinjaRyan @MEM64530898 @ThomasRaad1 and whoever else might be able to shine some light on this 🙏🏼🙏🏼
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Moyses Heringer (Moy)
Moyses Heringer (Moy)@moyfarm·
Spot prices for rio coffee yesterday vs today. Oh boy, that escalated quickly.(For those familiar with the matter, you know the quality we’re talking about here, right? Everything’s fine... rio coffee at 1,920 reais.) #kc
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KenanHajdari
KenanHajdari@hajdari_kenan·
@guciorski @CoffeeNinjaRyan Guciorski. Asshole. I wanted to say that we can live without coffee and its not a necessity. Just because I roast coffee I don't want to put clients to a misery. You idiot.
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manohar retweetledi
Maja Wallengren
Maja Wallengren@SpillingTheBean·
BRAZIL WATCH #KC: The already severely damaged new 2025 #coffee crop in Brazil has gone from DISASTER-outlook to ALARMING and is actually WORSENING above and beyond disaster as the CONTINUING drought and extreme heat are causing NEW and additional losses to what already at the end of @SpillingTheBean ‘s very extensive 1-month 4100-km crop trip concluding Jan 10 it was beyond doubt the new Brazil 2025 #coffee harvest had suffered widespread, massive and IRREVERSIBLE damage and back then I said it was beyond debate that there WOULD be further losses both from bean abortion as well as overall stress very visible in trees across all of MG and ES and this “accumulated stress” effect EVEN if Jan-Feb wld register basic relative stable rains during the CRUCIAL bean formation period - now it’s all VERY clear this has not happened as most farms are reporting min 4-6 weeks not just without rains BUT also seeing a repeat of much too high temperatures, all factors that ALREADY have contributed to what is now FURTHER IRREVERSIBLE losses to Brazil ‘s new harvest both for Arabica and Robusta, and 2025 will not only be the 5th CONSECUTIVE SMALL crop failling to come even close to the 60M-mark but MOST LIKELY the 2025 harvest total A+R will MAX reach 40-44M bags - The World IS Running Out of Coffee !!
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MORRIS DOUEK
MORRIS DOUEK@MorrisDouek·
@sriee_m I’m sure but the estimates of 25 mln bags should be off the table. There’s also 4.0 mln bags of Arabica not irrigated that is suffering big time!
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MORRIS DOUEK
MORRIS DOUEK@MorrisDouek·
Less than 25mm eastern coffee last 30 days. Exports dropping VS month ago. Certified stocks down 15m bags in spite of 8m approved so 23m out! While news is decidedly bullish respect price action!
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Werner Rohlfs
Werner Rohlfs@rohlfs_werner·
#coffee hit my trend-channel
$Trader@GDXTrader

#COFFEE Following the bullish continuation candle two weeks ago that broke to new all-time highs and cleared the ascending channel, last week saw further follow-through with another continuation candle, though with a smaller upper wick. This confirms that bulls remain in control, but with RSI now at 82, the coffee market is deep in overbought territory, signaling potential exhaustion. While momentum is strong, extended conditions like this often lead to either consolidation or a pullback before another leg higher. Bulls will want to see steady volume and controlled pullbacks to maintain trend integrity. Careful up here. Access daily technical analysis videos of various commodities including #COFFEE, join our chat room, explore trading strategies, and see my personal trades, all with a focus on commodities and stocks within their markets, at goldeneyeanalysis.com. $JO $CANE $BJO $WEAT $CORN $SOYB $DBA $SGG $NIB $BAL $WOOD $JJG $GRU $LND $ADM $BG $TATE $KDP $SBUX $DUNK $PEET

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manohar
manohar@sriee_m·
I do t know if this is a joke mill those coffee cherries after drying and see what happens to the beans. Suddenly everyone is crying demand issue and suddenly there is some one harvesting unripe coffee if this is what is going on the shortage is going to be even bigger post June 2025 Mill the coffee and find out more🏴🏴🏴
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Moyses Heringer (Moy)
Moyses Heringer (Moy)@moyfarm·
instagram.com/reel/DFxhOLAOc… This video is going viral on Instagram, showing a producer harvesting extremely green coffee just to take advantage of the prices… This is exactly what I mentioned in my previous posts about the psychological impact of prices on producers. Everyone is desperate to sell coffee. In other words, the volume of sales at the beginning of the harvest will look like a bumper crop, even though the overall harvest will be medium to low.
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manohar
manohar@sriee_m·
Demand demand for the past 4 years i keep hearing the same gibberish from top level excutive every time prices rally and demand has been as strong as it's ever been demand continues to outstrip supply unprecedented 5th year coffee shortage who is willing to wager it won't be the sixth if these top level excutive keep drilling fear into farmers the prices won't compensate their losses due to climate change time to calm down and accept the new reality may be some day we will produce a world record crop it's just not going to happen short term until then chin up accept you all f**ked up and move on ! May be cheering the farmer will help your cases to.
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Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Markets@markets·
Coffee’s recent dizzying rally has been fueled by a lack of insight on future supply and short-term speculation, resulting in pricier brews for consumers, according to Illy trib.al/DjM8x12
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manohar
manohar@sriee_m·
@moyfarm 🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢🤮🤮🤮🤮
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Moyses Heringer (Moy)
Moyses Heringer (Moy)@moyfarm·
Roasted corn being used as a cheaper alternative to coffee here in Brazil.
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