Will Laurance

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Will Laurance

Will Laurance

@traderwl

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California, USA Katılım Aralık 2024
446 Takip Edilen354 Takipçiler
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Will Laurance
Will Laurance@traderwl·
Trade futures? Then get Arc’s Free weekly @CFTC Commitment of Traders AI analysis report delivered to your inbox Friday 2:30 EST. Actionable insights for your futures trading, free. getarcresearch.com/cftc
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Mind Math Money
Mind Math Money@MindMathMoney·
@minenergybiz $4,500 gold in 2026 dropping to $1,500 by 2027. Barrick basically assuming a 67% crash in their own product. Either they know something nobody else does, or these assumptions haven't been updated since the last cycle. Betting on the latter.
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Oliver Groß
Oliver Groß@minenergybiz·
Barrick Mining's key outlook assumptions for the gold price in 2027-2028 are fun 🤪 $B
Oliver Groß tweet media
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GrainStats 🌾
GrainStats 🌾@GrainStats·
USDA didn’t have the planting report on the website until 10 seconds after release but the website was still crashing and not letting anyone get the data because of capacity issues the report was definitely available, but first come first serve - so we will just hit the USDA 1000’s of times per millisecond next time because apparently others are doing it and no one is getting busted for it 🤷
GrainStats 🌾 tweet media
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Michael Saylor
Michael Saylor@saylor·
You weren’t meant to live an uncomfortable life. $STRC
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The Spectator Index
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex·
BREAKING: Trump has told aides he is willing to 'end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed', according to Wall Street Journal report.
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Ja Leto
Ja Leto@_falsi1ke·
Name a huge scam.
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Alberto Alvarez
Alberto Alvarez@AAGresearch·
The market is beginning to understand This is bullish for almost all commodities
Alberto Alvarez tweet media
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GrainStats 🌾
GrainStats 🌾@GrainStats·
war in Iran has got the marginal investor/trader/policy maker interested in grain markets again hasn’t been this way since 2021-2023 when it was renewable policy (biofuels, net zero), drought (Argentina and US to a lesser degree), and Food Crisis (Ukraine-Russia War on Wheat+Corn Exports) don’t expect them to leave anytime soon
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA
Michael A. Gayed, CFA@leadlagreport·
I was about to sleep but wanted to say before I do that for the record fuck Lindsey Graham goodnight
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Lou Pai, CEO, Enron Energy Services (parody)
Alright, I’m going to settle this as someone who has sold and hedged many barrels of crude oil, and been a market maker for others who have done the same. Physical crude sales are linked to a benchmark. Could be NYMEX WTI, ICE Brent, Dated Brent, MEH, Dubai, Oman, whatever. You pay or get paid that index price, plus adders of some kind (shipping, marketing fee, quality diff, etc). But at least like 95% of what you pay/ get paid is going to be the index price. You don’t do correlation analysis nonsense in choosing which index to hedge. You use the index to which your phys sales are tied to hedge. So if you’re an Asia refiner, you don’t just decide to start hedging Brent even though you have a supply agreement with a seller to whom you have to pay Dubai. As John put it, you hedge the exposure you have. Now if you want to adjust your purchase contracts to Brent, you can probably do that, but you’re going to pay out the ass for transportation, which will be included as a cost in your marketing agreement. The huge spread in Dubai/Brent was likely mostly a function of cost of transportation and that it takes time to move barrels from the North Sea to the Gulf/Asia. Now that a few weeks have gone by, supplies from the North Sea have arrived in Asia, and low and behold, spot prices in the Gulf have come in to reflect less acute local scarcity, while Brent prices have moved up to reflect the demand supplies are getting from Asia. It’s not some wonky derivative trading nonsense. It is purely basic physical supply and demand at work.
Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )@chigrl

Now John will say you can't hedge that way. You absolutely can. The reason Asian refiners were hedging against Dubai in the first place was convention. Their crude slate was predominantly Middle East, their product pricing was Dubai referenced, and keeping everything in the same benchmark universe simplified the book. But as more WTI Midland enters the Asian crude diet, hedging against the Brent benchmark that actually contains that grade is a tighter correlation, not a looser one. Not to mention the fact that S&P Global Platts, on March 2nd suspended nominations for any crude grade that requires transit through the Strait of Hormuz. That killed three of the five grades immediately. Dubai, Upper Zakum, and Al Shaheen all load from inside the Strait and can't get out. Only Oman (loads outside the Strait) and Murban remain deliverable.

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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
@thebrouss @TMTLongShort Why do you say China can’t project power when China is the only nation that can sail thru Hormuz for the past 3 weeks? Power doesn’t have to be screamed about to be projected.
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Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort·
The longer oil prices stay elevated the more valuable liquidity becomes. Don’t forget who provides swap lines. Bessent is going to be the grim reaper with a big fat “get fucked” button on his desk. It’s called manufacturing leverage.
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Paul White Gold Eagle
Paul White Gold Eagle@PaulGoldEagle·
🚨 Predictions… U.S. will declare victory over Iran. U.S. will open the Straight of Hormuz, Oil will drop to around $60/barrel. The Dow will surpass 50,000. The S&P 500 will surpass 7,500. Interest rates fall. The 10 year interest rates also will fall. Unemployment will drop. Republicans win mid terms. All according to plan… H/T Scott Bales
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Evan
Evan@StockMKTNewz·
THIS IS A SAFE SPACE How has your portfolio done so far in 2026
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James E. Thorne
James E. Thorne@DrJStrategy·
For the record Ignore the noise: this is NOT the 1970s and Trump is NOT launching Iraq 2.0. High‑frequency data show no demand destruction: Americans are still spending, flying and filling hotels. Inflation expectations are well anchored. The “Iran shock” is a short term volatility trade, not a new regime. The real story is unchanged: Supply Side Policy regime shift, AI capex, an industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautiful Bill are far more powerful than a temporary oil spike. Markets are mispricing a squall as a superstorm. Ignore the noise. Ignore the Doomers. Have a nice day.
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Nostra, House of Gold
Nostra, House of Gold@Nostre_damus·
It’s day 28 of the 2 day military operation The Houthis have entered the fight
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Gold stocks are in historically oversold territory: ~95% of stocks in the gold miners ETF, $GDX, are now trading in a bear market, the highest since at least April 2023. This has surged +850% over the last 4 weeks as gold miners have dropped -25% over this period, entering a bear market for the first time since 2023. By comparison, ~90% of stocks in the ETF were in a bear market in October 2023. From that point until March 1st, 2026, $GDX rallied +346%, experiencing one of its biggest bull markets in history. Gold miners have rarely been this oversold.
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Jesse Cohen
Jesse Cohen@JesseCohenInv·
🚨🇺🇸 Restaurant stocks are in freefall. What happened to the US consumer?
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Laanie
Laanie@cryptolaanie·
I AM CURRENTLY $9,000,000 SHORT ON OIL i see no reason for this overpriced ponzi of a liquid to be pumping beside news that the governments want to pysop you into believing SEND OIL TO $0
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