Bence Lukacsy

@Max_Sorokin_ @andrewcourt1 open secret

@andrewcourt1 Do you know which categories SIG currently participates in on Prediction Markets?

If you’re interested in how trading and prediction markets work, go to this. Jeremy and I co-ran a trading desk at SIG for several years. He understands the microstructure and what these markets could become.

@ssigsbee start showing pnl

We’re building fast. In April, we pushed:
• $256M in Kalshi volume
• Doubled the trading team
• Launched our live trading arm
• Rolled out internal trading software In May, we’re accelerating:
• 3 new exchange launches
• Training the next wave of traders
• Expanding live coverage imawhale.com

@BeatzXBT not bad for a sophomore

so, been a while... back to making bad markets slightly less bad, and man i've missed it. this time its less stinky on the coins, more stinky on the exchange choice. the system is new, been working on it since ~mid feb and got it stable right before the start of this month.

@annanay @Kalshi @wintermute_t @SeliniCapital some things, e.g., pre-event quoting, are akin to stablecoin market making. this is sport agnostic and much closer to the general case you believe doesn’t exist for live quoting, there are some comments to be made which I cannot fit here

Onboarding a new market maker. They started out 'market making' on @Kalshi by FULL TIME CLICK TRADING ON THE GUI for many months. Nobody 'classically trained' in HFT on the team. Will PMs spawn a new generation of HFT firms like @wintermute_t and @SeliniCapital, like crypto exchanges did in 2021? I'm not so sure - here is my reasoning: >@wintermute_t was started by the ex-Head of ETFs at Optiver, @SeliniCapital by one of the PM's at Tanius, ex-Tower and ex-GETCO. I did a full interview process with both of them, and it was obvious they were doing things 'right' from the get-go. The current batch of garage band PM MM's have no idea about HFT basics, and since most online stuff about HFT is garbage, it's not obvious they will be able to vibe-code their way out of it. >PMs (or more accurately, venture firms) are paying through their nose for liquidity, so a lot of these firms are making money quoting on markets with no volume, which isn't really sustainable. >It's arguable that the valuation and modeling is most important in prediction markets, which is very product-specific and not scaleable. Even trading a single sport profitably requires specific data and model setups where the infra costs don't really scale, and little is built that is 'generic' across the major asset classes. >This is in contrast to the modern approach of HFT, which is to make generic, scaleable model pipelines which are closer to 'plug and play' (usually a different pipeline for futures and equities).

@wxmonke @CSP_Trading this week will be a big waitlist rolloff 🙈

@senseibence @CSP_Trading oh really? i have yet to gain access to cftc poly

Polymarket is giving away $2 MILLION DOLLARS to anyone who puts up limit orders for March Madness games. Unlike some sites who do fake billion dollar prizes they know theyll never have to pay out, Polymarket is giving away cold straight cash to anyone who bids. Details in reply

@wxmonke @CSP_Trading there are similarly generous liq rewards on poly US

@CSP_Trading holy crap these are some serious liq rewards!

@slitherygumball @GeoffMacdonald4 @IncomeSharks @zerohedge that’s exactly how PFOF works and is exactly why it’s banned in the EU. citadel filling your market order at NBBO (or even better) != “several MMs competing to give you the best price”

@senseibence @GeoffMacdonald4 @IncomeSharks @zerohedge That’s not how PFOF and ATSs work

Robinhood remains the undisputed champion in selling your option orderflow data to Citadel and HFT giants

@slitherygumball @GeoffMacdonald4 @IncomeSharks @zerohedge robinhood sells it to the MM who will pay them more, not the one that gives end user the best price

@GeoffMacdonald4 @IncomeSharks @zerohedge Just send good limit orders. You get no fees and the price you wanted anyway. Payment for order flow does not hurt retail investors, if you are sending a market order don’t you want several MMs competing to give you the best price?

@professorwazwaz @SebaMG2 @terrifyingbitch @GCarregha @Heliouz__ not thinking != data retrieval

@professorwazwaz @SebaMG2 @terrifyingbitch @GCarregha @Heliouz__ an LLM is not a semantic search data retrieval system

Le pedí a ChatGPT 5.2 Pro que resolviera uno de los problemas de mi tesis de maestría en ciencia de materiales. Después de pensar por 31m 41s y cobrarme 200 dólares (eso cuesta usar ese modelo), llegó a la misma respuesta que a mí me tomo meses ...

@pray_eth @0xShual OTC != onchain

@0xShual It's BTC so it's all onchain right? You can just check the blockchain, no? Because it's all about decentralization and transparency, right? LOL

who is filling this guy's orders, some obscure nigerian OTC desk? how is the largest BTC holder/purchaser in history CONSISTENTLY get the crappiest execution possible? $90m isn't that big of a size too, ffs

@HiveLiveHQ liquidity != volume

THIS IS MASSIVE: Jump Trading will soon be be MMing prediction markets Institutional interest in PMs is growing, but considering most top PM traders earn ~$600k per year, is there enough liquidity for a PM market-making team economically viable for a top quant firm like Jump?

@EventWavesIO @probaaron @CSP_Trading it’s institutional market makers, your counterparties compete with each other

@probaaron @CSP_Trading I'm still confused about how it works x.com/EventWavesIO/s…

Poly trolling the competition

@systematicls I agree. this is particularly evident when trying to MM on prediction markets

Thinking about edge vs queue position in market making. Seems like tick size determines which one matters. Large tick assets: - Can't undercut by 0.0001 to jump the queue - Queue position IS your edge - First in line earns spread. Last in line is exit liquidity. Small tick assets: - Improve price by a hair, you're now first - Queue irrelevant. Edge is predicting when to improve. The flip: large tick = queue war, small tick = price war. "But edge per trade is higher in large tick" -> sure, and adverse selection increases with queue position. Back of the queue gets picked off. Your edge means nothing if you're last. True?

@annanay I was under the impression that citadel just captures all the flow without worrying about the details, as opposed to a smaller MM

How do MMs evolve into alpha-driven behemoths? It's fairly natural: >C tier: market making without an alpha signal How can I avoid getting picked off? Find alpha, make a model! >B tier: market making, avoiding bad trades based on an alpha signal. What if my alpha signal gets so good that I just want to position myself based on it? >A tier: trading on an alpha signal. Some of these trades might be liquidity-adding, but this isn't the main intention any more. >S tier: my alpha signal is too good. I have to avoid monetizing it too fast and leaking my intentions into the market before I can size up too much (Citadel is here).

@phd_hxy @pilpulon @quant_arb medium freq

@pilpulon @quant_arb whats mft？

If you want some info on how to do market making in these markets, I have some great articles on the topic which go into detail.

@Ommiii_ @j0hnwang @dunedash @Kalshi @KalshiEco greed.bot

@j0hnwang @dunedash @Kalshi @KalshiEco yo, where can I see category-specific volume?

moon that

@shroudedfigure9 @max_heap @0xwondr trump tweet being real does not necessitate the price going up compared to purchase price; this was not a perfect hedge

@max_heap @0xwondr If you read the article carefully, you’ll see that his position was fully hedged: if $TRUMP went to zero and his Polymarket bet resolved to YES, he would have still walked away with a $3k profit.

@coastal_quant I imagine the taker fees on Kalshi require the difference in price between the two platforms to be quite large. Why not try market making LA Dodgers pregame?

Been quiet on here a while - but getting seriously into trading on prediction markets so going to document my journey and learn from the more HFT-minded folks on here. As a start, here's me getting adversely selected on a sell order in a LA Dodgers game (you're welcome SIG)