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ActuallyFin
30.2K posts
ActuallyFin
@ActuallyFinance
Get-rich-slow scheme researcher. May like good tweets from bad accts. Expect sarcasm. Suggested 0.5% royalty for idea use pls.
เข้าร่วม Ocak 2018
1K กำลังติดตาม2.2K ผู้ติดตาม
@rev_cap @redwood_ryan_a If you're developing wouldn't you want low cap rates?
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@redwood_ryan_a How does one get to $10mm of net worth developing in a commercial real estate category that’s over supplied and has cap rates below the cost to finance them?
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My goal is $10m by 40, really the only # on my radar and realistic as long as I don’t make any huge mistakes.
At 40 I can get more ambitious, ie non-RE projects with ideally huge upside, but ~$0 cash flow until either outcome is achieved
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GPT 5.5 is crazy good
made something that would have been a 6 month long project two years ago
and a 6 week project a year ago
and a 2 week project 3 months ago
...in 8 hours
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If you don't begin your career at a top-tier firm these days I recommend some combination of grifting and rotting.
If your job sucks, you're already being grifted by society and there's very little upward mobility these days.
Your only recourse is grift back or lower effort.
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@milken_cookies Two can keep a secret if one of them is dead
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ActuallyFin รีทวีตแล้ว
@W2Freedom It’s not that much, stop mentally masturbating over your self aggrandizement and get back to work.
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My net worth has been well over $5M since last year but it really hasn’t quite hit me yet..
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ActuallyFin รีทวีตแล้ว
@waitbutwhy There is a nice convexity to choosing blue here. If you die, it is because there is less hope for the world. If you live, it is because there is more.
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Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@waitbutwhy 42%, even if they think the vast majority (say >80%) think like them, knowingly chose to let a billion people die.
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@choffstein Two scenarios:
Hit a red button: at least hundred of millions of people will die, more likely billions.
Hit a blue button: everyone will live, as long as at least half the world did not want to kill hundreds of millions or billions of people.
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@ActuallyFinance Let's reframe this.
x.com/choffstein/sta…
Corey Hoffstein 🏴☠️@choffstein
Bond Villain: "Press blue... or don't." Me: "What if I don't?" BV: "Nothing. You go home." Me: "And if I press it?" BV: "You die, along with everyone else who pressed blue, unless half of humanity also presses it." Me: "But I can just leave?" BV: "Correct."
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Red looks selfish until you realize: if everyone presses red, everyone lives.
The "cooperative" answer requires coordination and trust.
The "selfish" answer just requires everyone making the same selfish choice.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@choffstein I am imagine a world where the red people fund an aggressive worldwide advertising campaign, then maybe we could get it down to only a billion. A conservative guess. Certainly closer to correct than your zero.
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@ActuallyFinance You've chosen a random number to define how expensive it is. But, given the number you chose, blue was going to lose regardless, so... 🤷♂️
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A buddy who does HNW told me of a client of his—a doctor!—who sold right at the COVID bottom because "this is gonna get really bad" ... don't know if or when that client ever got back in... thoughts & prayers lol x.com/choffstein/sta…
Corey Hoffstein 🏴☠️@choffstein
last april, during the tariff tantrum, equity + trend fell -25% vs S&P 500's -16%. a client fully redeemed. to paraphrase, "I feel bad for you guys; you'll be out of business soon." since then, stocks + trend beat the S&P 500 by 24 percentage points and AUM is up ~62%. sometimes the realized path is just a way to let clients self select into the process. it's a good thing.
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Curious what happens if you add in financial outcomes to this (eg the people who press red also get $5 or $500).
I bet if you ran this poll more than a few times, eventually you’d get a sense of how much respondents value human life per capita.
vittorio@IterIntellectus
why would anyone even press blue?!?
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@RampCapitalLLC @IterIntellectus It is possible to be (1) smart and (2) not want to kill every nice or dumb person in the world.
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why would anyone even press blue?!?
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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"intel has now done something that it has not done in 26 years. it had the audacity to make an all time high."
intel made all-time highs in mar 2018, apr 2019, jan 2020, apr 2021...
Hugh Hendry Acid Capitalist TV@hendry_hugh
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@taobanker Claude is dumb as hell right now. Anything I ask, it just responds "You've hit your limit"
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