Chris Jefferson

3.1K posts

Chris Jefferson

Chris Jefferson

@Azumanga

AI and Maths Professor. Not spending time on Elon’s hellsite any more. @[email protected] @heathercafe.bsky.social

Earth เข้าร่วม Nisan 2008
486 กำลังติดตาม594 ผู้ติดตาม
Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@pmddomingos Except it's a 2st year undergraduate programming challenge to write a program to solve NP puzzles like Sudoku and Nonograms, and the best AI models still get them wrong most of the time.
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Pedro Domingos
Pedro Domingos@pmddomingos·
TL;DR: Programming solves problems in P, and AI in NP.
Andrej Karpathy@karpathy

Sharing an interesting recent conversation on AI's impact on the economy. AI has been compared to various historical precedents: electricity, industrial revolution, etc., I think the strongest analogy is that of AI as a new computing paradigm (Software 2.0) because both are fundamentally about the automation of digital information processing. If you were to forecast the impact of computing on the job market in ~1980s, the most predictive feature of a task/job you'd look at is to what extent the algorithm of it is fixed, i.e. are you just mechanically transforming information according to rote, easy to specify rules (e.g. typing, bookkeeping, human calculators, etc.)? Back then, this was the class of programs that the computing capability of that era allowed us to write (by hand, manually). With AI now, we are able to write new programs that we could never hope to write by hand before. We do it by specifying objectives (e.g. classification accuracy, reward functions), and we search the program space via gradient descent to find neural networks that work well against that objective. This is my Software 2.0 blog post from a while ago. In this new programming paradigm then, the new most predictive feature to look at is verifiability. If a task/job is verifiable, then it is optimizable directly or via reinforcement learning, and a neural net can be trained to work extremely well. It's about to what extent an AI can "practice" something. The environment has to be resettable (you can start a new attempt), efficient (a lot attempts can be made), and rewardable (there is some automated process to reward any specific attempt that was made). The more a task/job is verifiable, the more amenable it is to automation in the new programming paradigm. If it is not verifiable, it has to fall out from neural net magic of generalization fingers crossed, or via weaker means like imitation. This is what's driving the "jagged" frontier of progress in LLMs. Tasks that are verifiable progress rapidly, including possibly beyond the ability of top experts (e.g. math, code, amount of time spent watching videos, anything that looks like puzzles with correct answers), while many others lag by comparison (creative, strategic, tasks that combine real-world knowledge, state, context and common sense). Software 1.0 easily automates what you can specify. Software 2.0 easily automates what you can verify.

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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@joshwoodward @GeminiApp Why do you need 72 hours to keep Gemini safe and respond to us? What does keep Gemini safe even mean? When I close a private tab in Chrome or Firefox, it's just gone, instantly.
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Josh Woodward
Josh Woodward@joshwoodward·
How to personalize your @Geminiapp, announcing 2 features you wanted: 1) Personalize based on your past chats, so you don’t have to repeat things 2) Use Temporary Chats for conversations you don’t want saved Both rolling out now for everyone, starting on 2.5 Pro model… enjoy!
Josh Woodward tweet media
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@d_m_d_m_d_d Maths people make not talk about how clever they uniquely are, but they are very happy to talk about how clever everyone in maths is, and how it is the hardest and most important subject in the whole world, more than any other subject, in my experience at least.
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wise political commentator (derogatory)
not trying to be that much of a hater, but i find it interesting that, among math people i know, going on about how uniquely smart and special you are is frowned upon, but it seems to be (conservatively) 60% of what programmers/engineers/finance people talk about
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@chillbert32 @killian_arts Honestly, I don't believe people wanted bad languages. When I was learning to program in 2000, I looked for a good, free Windows lisp that would let me make GUI applications. I couldn't find one. So I learnt C++ instead.
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____ _____
____ _____@chillbert32·
@killian_arts For better or for worse, Lisp is antithetical to that paradigm. You can do it very well of course but there is far too much flexibility, as if the plumber was allowed to route the sink pipes out of the house beneath the grass. That's a liability for a company.
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Almighty Lisp
Almighty Lisp@almighty_lisp·
One of the factors many people attribute to Lisp's fall from grace is the fact that all of the companies making Lisps were adamant about not sharing what they made and insisting that they get paid huge sums of money for their products (look at the insane prices Franz and LispWorks STILL CHARGE TODAY). Because of this cutthroat competitive spirit and ego, the development of Common Lisp was slowed down and no successors were ever conceived. Meanwhile, Java gave away the JVM, Python its interpreter, and C had legions of sweaty memory-management nerds hammering away at compilers. Making money on software is innately challenging because it is infinitely reproducible, and the parts that aren't (like time and expertise) need to be more expensive to make building the "free" product worth the effort--making them unattainable and unattractive to the people who just want the free stuff.
Datastar CEO@DelaneyGillilan

Interesting discussion. We are trying a different approach. Making a non-profit with a Pro option for enterprise things. Either get tax free donations or a set of tools you pay for; up to you. It'll surely make some mad but they don't have better ideas youtube.com/watch?v=OrHorw…

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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@AngelicaOung Yes, having seen several people playing these kinds of games, at some point, possibly this very case, I've tipped over into "Never donate to people I don't know, it's almost certainly a scam or trick of some kind".
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Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸
EAs scare me. Not because they are harboring evil intentions, but because they do not see beyond the immediate consequences of their own personal actions. This guy had one go-fund-mes. One for Givewell and one for himself. He then gave money from both to go-fund-me. That’s actually fine. He could have done that without dishonor…it was his money after all. He can do with it as he likes. But he has to announce it to everyone, breaking the social contract and making our world just that little bit more low-trust. Believe me. That impact is real. But because he can’t put it in his little mental ledger it doesn’t count.
Nicholas Decker@captgouda24

With apologies, I lied. I gave it all away. Go support Givewell folks! It does the world a lot of good.

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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@simonsarris Have you tried printing a webpage recently? They are still basically unusable when it comes to printing out pages, chrome will often cut a line of text in half between pages.
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Simon Sarris
Simon Sarris@simonsarris·
(it also tells us that early browsers were bad at printing and early web tools were bad at authoring but that excuse has long since passed)
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@hecubian_devil So many things should be like this. I would do academic funding the same, rather than try to distinguish which 5 out of 20 “rated excellent” grants should be funded.
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@jan_ruettinger @Linahuaa One way they pay for it is equipment. I don’t see get a doctor appointment in China without first getting a blood test. It seems this greatly helps the doctor, they can see about 22 different measurements. The test takes about 20 minutes to do, from sample being taken.
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Jan Rüttinger
Jan Rüttinger@jan_ruettinger·
That's cool but who pays for it in the end? There is the public healthcare system in Europe which is underfunded and comes with long wait times. Then there is the private healthcare system in the US which is crazy expensive but has no wait times. How does China solve it? Do doctors just not make that much money? If so, how do you make sure that you get smart people to become doctors?
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LinaHua
LinaHua@Linahuaa·
Healthcare is so efficient in China, Chinese folks do checkups all the time. Their arm hurts a bit- they go to the doctor. Their blood fat is a bit higher than normal- they go to the doctor like 4 times in 2 months. Their pee looks a bit cloudy for two days in the row- they go to the doctor. I personally had more blood tests in the past 3 years in China than I had in 20 years in Germany. Getting an appointment in Germany is such a hassle- I just don't bother to go, and hope whatever is plaguing me will go away by itself. In China, whenever I feel uneasy, I can see a doctor within like an hour (including 20 min travel time) without any appointment.
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@_trish_07 The fact that after years about the only thing they removed was std::random_shuffle, a perfectly fine function doing no-one any harm, while adding a pile of new footguns (like *v on std::optional being undefined when the optional is empty) was just amazing.
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trish
trish@_trish_xD·
Rust exists because C++ refused to admit it has problems.
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Aella
Aella@Aella_Girl·
I'm skeptical of most classic modern feminism interpretations of the world, which often overuses sexism as an explanation for things. But it does seem increasingly true to me that men are much more overconfident and more likely to pretend to know stuff they dont
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@maaruin210 @hecubian_devil Based on my limited experience as a foreigner, MAGA believe in the mission. Some of them don’t like Trump, or Elon, or other senior people — but they are willing to work anyone to achieve their goals. Looking in this thread, the left seems to take the almost exact opposite view?
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@patio11 Wait, doesn’t this graph literally show the poorest are paying proportionally the highest amount?
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Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie@patio11·
This paper also has the following result, which is underappreciated: When you consider *all* sources of card income / costs, including interest and net interchange, *both ends of the spectrum* subsidize *the middle of the FICO distribution.*
Patrick McKenzie tweet media
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Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie@patio11·
The Atlantic has an interesting piece on credit card processing. The thesis is that interchange fees redistribute money from poor to rich. I do not subscribe to this thesis. x.com/TheAtlantic/st…
The Atlantic@TheAtlantic

“The credit-card market has quietly transformed into two credit-card markets: one offering generous benefits to wealthy Americans, the other offering expensive debt to the poor, with the latter subsidizing the former,” @AnnieLowrey writes: theatln.tc/sZZzl0mg

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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@JFPuget @ai_for_success One common thing I hear all academics say is that coming up with good questions is much harder than coming up with good answers. So far LLMs seem are depressingly bad at coming up with good questions -- I, and others, have certainly tried.
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@M4TT808T @JFPuget I don't have to explain. "The jews" are not a single group with a single opinion. Some of them like Elon, some of them think he is a Nazi, I imagine a bunch don't live on Twitter so they don't care.
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Matt Von Smit
Matt Von Smit@M4TT808T·
@JFPuget @Azumanga how do you explain the fact that he loves jews and jews love him ? he even visited Auschwitz with Ben Shapiro and meet Netanyahu to in Israel
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@M4TT808T @JFPuget No, we call him a Nazi because he did the salute, and then made a string of Nazi jokes. Then he meets with German Nazi-adjacent parties. Then he says "Hitler didn't murder millions of people". Has he ever clearly said he isn't a nazi? Would be easy to do
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Matt Von Smit
Matt Von Smit@M4TT808T·
@JFPuget my point is many people on the left know ellon is not a nazzii but yet still call him that because of one hand gesture, I guess slight difference would be to say (he did a nazzii salute but he is not a nazzii) but most people just straight call him nazzii coz of that one gesture
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@tsoding I think it effects the libraries a lot. Haskell libraries introduce a million types. C++ libraries get obsessed with adding another template specialisation to gain 2% more speed. Pure Python libraries tend to care more about good docs than speed, as its going to be slow anyway.
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Тsфdiиg
Тsфdiиg@tsoding·
It's weird to me that people put so much emphasis on The Community of a language. When I learn a language I just read docs and source code. No where in this process The Community is involved. I think people looking for The Community are children looking for the kindergarten.
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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@rfsouza @rfleury Cool, I've not really used C#, but this motivates me to try it. I realise using this too much could create a horrible mess, but when I've wanted it in the past (in Rust and C++), it's really annoying to work around, particularly when in the middle of a big rewrite / rearrange.
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Ryan Fleury
Ryan Fleury@rfleury·
The bizarre part of this debate is that static typing arises first at the low level because it isn’t an extra “correctness” or “safety checking” feature, it’s a fundamental property of how two static codepaths agree on an encoding. You can literally never get rid of it. A “dynamically typed system” is just saying “all input/output types are a generic object type—all accesses are dynamically checked depending on the value” (and usually in a language that fast paths these operations with succinct syntax). It’s not that there isn’t value in introducing dynamism. You can do so within a statically typed system. It’s that you are constantly working with both styles, and in a statically typed system you can choose how much dynamism you want in each case.
Samswara@samswoora

People who hate strict typing/conpilers are literally so bad at coding and just want to run and watch their bad code fail rather than just make it work. Strong typing brings you closer to God

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Chris Jefferson
Chris Jefferson@Azumanga·
@ellie_huxtable You know your program is truly popular when Linux distros decide you are successful enough to deserve “special attention”, and they break everything. Congratulations! I’ve unfortunately not found a way to stop them :/
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Ellie Huxtable
Ellie Huxtable@ellie_huxtable·
older linux distros making huge patches to our codebase things break users ask us for support :(
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louiec
louiec@louiec·
@probnstat I prefer the 3/4 answer which assumes that he lies randomly. We know nothing about the roll itself. All we know is that he says it was 6. Since he tells the truth 3/4 of the time, I conclude that the probability that it was actually 6 is 3/4.
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Probability and Statistics
A man is known to speak the truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.
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