ray cryptosmith

@Sheldone @noplaceforsheep @AJEnglish I know Al Jazeera well, notice next time you’re watching how they let American critics of Iran spout propaganda with no pushback

@cryptosmith_ray @noplaceforsheep If that’s being pro-US I’d hate to read what they say about their enemies! Srsly, check them out. @AJEnglish

Are we pretending the ceasefire is holding?

@Sheldone @noplaceforsheep Al Jazeera is staunchly anti-Iran and has a pro-US lens to their reporting, be careful

@noplaceforsheep Al Jazeera is a decent news org about this too.

@Xulficus @Pataramesh @user10081994 That might be true, but diplomatic relations, and especially post-war negotiations don’t rely on he-said, she-said tit for rats, its a formal opportunity to discuss and negotiate an outcome. This ceasefire also gives Iran time to ready its forces

@Pataramesh @user10081994 They didn't. They literally said they threw them in the garbage.

So what is actually happening with the ceasefire? - Pakistan, assisted by Turkey brokered a ceasefire - Iran aware of the Pakistani Defense-Pact with Saudi and how unpopular for the Pakistani people it would be to side with 🇮🇱-🇺🇸 ➡️ promised to not break it by going kinetic - Israel exploited its leverage on Trump for face-saving action against Lebanon - Iran went for a 'soft-kill' by keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, with time ticking for world economy Neighbourly relations means that Iran has to play chess here instead using the hammer ➡️ The brotherhood with Hezbollah certainly means that Iran would go full counter-value against 🇮🇱 if Hezbollah requested it. But I'm sure Hezbollah being chess players themselves knows exactly what it is doing, fully aware of the Strait of Hormuz time/market dynamics ➡️ The bare minimum for AoR folks is to realize that Iran is risking re-engaging with a superpower for Lebanon. Amazing some don't even realize that...

@MildCuthbert “He’s an Australian hero”

right-wing auspoll goblins coming to the defence of a big fighting ork

@andy_cov93 Oil futures isn’t the physical price of oil… yes they are price gouging, but theres still no oil in the system. 10-15 boats per day ( if we’re lucky), compared to ~120. It will still get worse over the next 2-4 weeks

For every $5 a barrel that oil went up, petrol went up what 3p a litre INSTANTLY on every single forecourt. Oil price went - down - SIXTEEN PERCENT in the last 24 hours. Did you see a single petrol station lower their price today? Did you fuck. Money grabbing bastards

@Athenothing @Gizzmo4141 Well yeah that too 🤣

@cryptosmith_ray @Gizzmo4141 as if there's anything to get out of the strait.

Keep in mind even if everything were to go back to normal, Which it wont, Millions of litres of production have been effected, Prices will continue to rise as scarcity still increases for the next few weeks. Takes time to transport fuel, especially to Australia.

@HormuzLetter The US is loading up on supplies and hanging around ? Doesn’t this signal re-arming ? Or is it just me ?

BREAKING: Trump on Truth Social says the US will "help with the traffic buildup" in the Strait of Hormuz, with "lots of positive action" and "big money" to be made. Iran can begin reconstruction. Trump adds the US will be "loading up with supplies" and "hangin' around" in the Strait to ensure the new transit system works. He calls the deal a potential "Golden Age of the Middle East."

@tournadey @ripplebrain I agree, any renewed attack would be with far less forward based defence architecture, and less ability to defend the gulf states ( maybe US doesn’t care). It’s too early to tell but if Iran can secure most of the 10 points then it’s a big win

@cryptosmith_ray @ripplebrain You won't manufacture new radars in 2 weeks. The stockpile of interceptors is not that important when you don't have the radars. Even if they put new ones from other regions (dangerous), why would their fate be any different? Most people can't conprehend the defeat is real.

One minor point here I haven't seen anyone else raise: I'm not sure that a short ceasefire before a resumption of hostilities is to Iran's disadvantage. The US/Israeli side made the opening move, and did so at time of their choosing. The Iranians will have plenty of recovering and regeneration to do, from digging out missile bases to moving assets around without the threat of air attack. More air defense interceptors aren't going to magically materialize in Israel within two weeks, either. Another angle is the economic one. Further supply shocks are inevitable and will happen even if the war ends entirely today. Dragging out the conflict by another two weeks will allow some of them to land while costing the Iranians nothing. Markets are likely to react very negatively to the collapse of the ceasefire too.

@AdameMedia Yes $100 billion a year- I saw an analysis saying that the will forgive the fee for poorer nations which assumes that it will reduce it to $50 billion/year. And then they will split the toll with Oman, so $25/yr a piece

Sanctions lifted And tolls being charged on the strait of Hormuz. That’s billions per week.

Trump has made Iran rich.

@ripplebrain They also can’t repair their bases. But is it enough time to replenish AD in Israel ? Maybe they give up on the bases and focus on defending Israel going forward and rely on bomber runs

In light of this it's plausible that this is a genuine capitulation by the US/Israeli side. What could they hope to get out of a fake two week ceasefire? It's not enough time to manufacture thousands of new JASSMs. The economic picture won't improve in two weeks.

Trump is negotiating with Trump.

@MichaelWestBiz @noplaceforsheep @sstephanietrann Why are they getting grants anyway ? Aren’t they getting paid to make the parts for the killing machines ?

Genocide grants. They hid it. Government has given $78m in grants to Australian F-35 suppliers. Used in Israel slaughter in Gaza and probably now in illegal bombing of Iran @sstephanietrann #auspol michaelwest.com.au/genocide-grant…

@JavierBlas Civilians aren’t “deployed” to civilian infrastructure, they’re simply using it

Iran is likely to deploy human shields to its bridges and power plants tonight. The use of civilians as human shields is banned under the Geneva Conventions (article 51).

@JonHawk33 @DD_Geopolitics The satellites and imaging data is essentially processing light that reflects from objects on the surface of the planet. Bright red pixels correlate to very high temperatures that are perceived as red light, even though it may be more complex in colour than that

@DD_Geopolitics I don't understand that app, i was checking on oil refineries from Europe too and they appear with the red squares. Seems like all refineries will appear like that or the world just went to hell? 😆

🇸🇦🇦🇪 NASA FIRMS data for the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) at Al Jubail Industrial City, Saudi Arabia, and the ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) facility in Habshan, UAE. 🇸🇦 SABIC’s facility at Al‑Jubail Industrial City is one of the world’s largest integrated petrochemical complexes, using abundant local feedstock to produce a wide range of chemicals, polymers, and fertilizers for global markets. 🇦🇪 ADNOC’s facility in Habshan, UAE, is one of the Middle East’s largest integrated gas processing complexes, treating sour gas from Abu Dhabi’s onshore and offshore fields to produce large volumes of sales gas, natural gas liquids, sulfur, and other refined products for domestic and export markets.

@Pataramesh I’m surprised more don’t know that Iran international is just the Jerusalem post but with a different name

He deleted it, but for the records:

Some folks here like to quote "Iran International" as credible source for OSINT Below you see the kind of people working at that propaganda outlet... one of their most senior ones... ➡️ Highly depraved imbeciles

🇮🇷 "In response to the request of a little revolutionary girl" She got her pink missile.

@FearnYarrow @PeterCronau @AliAbunimah I don’t listen to that idiot

@cryptosmith_ray @PeterCronau @AliAbunimah Donald Trump has told us for years that MSM doesn’t tell the truth.

American claims presented as facts is not journalism. abc.net.au/news/2026-04-0…

Ultimately what separates the anti-imperialist left from mainstream liberal "humanitarians" is whether you're in it for humanity or for yourself. For the liberal, wanting peace and justice is more of an abstraction than a desire to fight the concrete power structures responsible for the lack of peace and justice in our world. If you're a liberal you oppose the idea of children being killed and starved in the abstract, because thinking of yourself as a moral person allows you to feel nice feelings about yourself, but you have no interest in taking a well-defined stand against the empire which routinely kills and starves children via genocides, wars of aggression, and siege warfare. You don't want families living in poverty because it would make you feel like a bad person if you did, but you also don't take a concrete stand against the capitalist system whose very existence depends on the perpetual creation of poverty and scarcity. You kinda-sorta want everyone to have happy and plentiful lives free from fear and tyranny, but you don't want to consider the possibility that your own country is responsible for abusing, terrorizing and exploiting the global south. Because that would make you feel uncomfortable feelings. It's not about wanting to actually help humanity and fix the world's problems, it's about you and your feelings. Those who oppose the capitalist empire are actually interested in bringing health and harmony to our species. They do not shy away from uncomfortable truths about their own government's abuses, the dystopian nature of western civilization, or the way their own creature comforts are built on the backs of workers in impoverished countries. Because for them it's not about feeling nice feelings, it's about creating a better world. The western anti-imperialist has no problem recognizing that their own society is the main villain on the world stage, because they're actually looking at the sources of the abuses and injustices in our world. The liberal "humanitarian" prefers to see evil only in foreign regimes, because being the bad guy doesn't feel nice. The western anti-imperialist recognizes that both mainstream political parties in their country promote the warmongering, militarism, capitalist exploitation and imperialist extraction which sustain the western empire, and they oppose the abuses of both parties whoever happens to be in office. The liberal "humanitarian" only recognizes wrongdoing in one mainstream political faction while proudly supporting and voting for the other, because this allows them to feel like they're helping. The western anti-imperialist accepts that standing on the morally correct side means eating loss after loss and receiving disappointment after disappointment, because the push for revolutionary change is swimming directly against the current imposed on every institution in our society. The liberal "humanitarian" feels nice feelings about their position because their side wins elections half the time, while smugly sneering at those to their left who never get their people into office. The western anti-imperialist will stare unflinching into the carnage from Palestine, Lebanon and Iran, feeling all the anguish and rage from witnessing those atrocities supported by their own nation. The liberal "humanitarian" tries to avoid looking at those things, because their entire worldview is built upon psychologically compartmentalizing away from reality in order to prioritize their own feelings. Basically it's the difference between actually BEING a good person and just wanting to FEEL like you're a good person. The former is hard, while the latter is easy. Which one do you want to be?