
Mark Nutter
295 posts


@NiklausFuller This is why everyone and their mother is releasing an agent memory tool, it’s an unsolved problem and a glaring deficiency.
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The 'vibecoding' hype is officially hitting a wall. We have passed the peak of inflated expectations regarding AI eliminating all software developers.
David Sacks recently broke down the reality check the tech industry is facing, citing insights from Aaron Levie and Matthew Yglesias. The consensus is shifting: people do not actually want to 'vibe code' their own complex applications.
The real consumer demand is simple. We want professionally managed software companies to leverage AI coding assistants to build better, cheaper products. The translation is straightforward: just lower your prices, do not make the end user vibe code.
While agentic coding is an undeniable boon for professional developers looking to scale their output, and fantastic for beginners learning the ropes, it breaks down when casually building complex software. Casual users are not equipped to take on the ongoing risks of system upgrades, routine maintenance, bugs, and cyber security threats.
Chamath Palihapitiya takes it a step further, calling this casual approach to enterprise software a massive risk rather than just a tax on knowledge workers. He predicts that we will eventually see a public company completely torch its enterprise value because someone tried to vibe code their way out of a problem, leading to inevitable firings.
As Jason Calacanis points out, this is exactly how the technology adoption lifecycle works. The industry is currently moving from the peak of inflated expectations down into the trough of disillusionment. AI agents will eventually climb the slope of enlightenment and become a highly productive standard, but the idea of replacing the entire professional developer workforce overnight was just a phase in the cycle.
FT: @theallinpod @jason @davidsacks @chamath @friedberg
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@ScottSummers @brian_armstrong Sure, bro. You got a couple businesses but got time to explain how you don't have time to explain.
GIF
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This is an email I sent earlier today to all employees at Coinbase:
Team,
Today I’ve made the difficult decision to reduce the size of Coinbase by ~14%. I want to walk you through why we're doing this now, what it means for those affected, and how this positions us for the future.
Why now
Two forces are converging at the same time. We need to be front footed to respond to both.
First, the market. Coinbase is well-capitalized, has diversified revenue streams, and is well-positioned to weather any storm. Crypto is also on the verge of the next wave of adoption, with stablecoins, prediction markets, tokenization, and more taking off. However, our business is still volatile from quarter to quarter. While we've managed through that cyclicality many times before and come out stronger on the other side, we’re currently in a down market and need to adjust our cost structure now so that we emerge from this period leaner, faster, and more efficient for our next phase of growth.
Second, AI is changing how we work. Over the past year, I’ve watched engineers use AI to ship in days what used to take a team weeks. Non-technical teams are now shipping production code and many of our workflows are being automated. The pace of what's possible with a small, focused team has changed dramatically, and it's accelerating every day.
All of this has led us to an inflection point, not just for Coinbase, but for every company. The biggest risk now is not taking action. We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native. We need to return to the speed and focus of our startup founding, with AI at our core.
What this means
To get there, we are not just reducing headcount and cutting costs, we’re fundamentally changing how we operate: rebuilding Coinbase as an intelligence, with humans around the edge aligning it. What does this mean in practice?
- Fewer layers, faster decisions: We are flattening our org structure to 5 layers max below CEO/COO. Layers slow things down and create coordination tax. The future is small, high context teams that can move quickly. Leaders will own much more, with as many as 15+ direct reports. Fewer layers also means a leaner cost structure that is built to perform through all market cycles.
- No pure managers: Every leader at Coinbase must also be a strong and active individual contributor. Managers should be like player-coaches, getting their hands dirty alongside their teams.
- AI-native pods: We’ll be concentrating around AI-native talent who can manage fleets of agents to drive outsized impact. We’ll also be experimenting with reduced pod sizes, including “one person teams” with engineers, designers, and product managers all in one role.
In short: AI is bringing a profound shift in how companies operate, and we’re reshaping Coinbase to lead in this new era. This is a new way of working, and we need to leverage AI across every facet of our jobs.
To those who are affected
I know there are real people behind these decisions — talented colleagues who have poured themselves into this company and our mission. To those of you who will be leaving: thank you. You’ve helped build Coinbase into what it is today, and I am sincerely grateful for everything you've done.
All impacted team members will receive an email to their personal account in the next hour with more information, and an invitation to meet with an HRBP and a senior leader in your organization. Coinbase system access has been removed today. I know this feels sudden and harsh, but it is the only responsible choice given our duty to protect customer information.
To those affected, we will be providing a comprehensive package to support you through this transition. US employees will receive a minimum of 16 weeks base pay (plus 2 weeks per year worked), their next equity vest, and 6 months of COBRA. Employees on a work visa will get extra transition support. Those outside of the US will receive similar support, based on local factors and subject to any consultation requirements.
Coinbase prides itself on talent density. Our employees are among the most talented people in the world, and I have no doubt that your skills and experience will be highly sought after as you pursue your next chapters.
How we move forward
To the team that is staying, I know this is a difficult day. We’re saying goodbye to colleagues and friends you've been in the trenches with. But here’s what I want you to know as we move forward together:
Over the past 13 years, we have weathered four crypto winters, gone public, and built the most trusted platform in our industry. We’ve made it this far by making hard decisions and by always staying focused on our mission. This time will be no different – nothing has changed about the long term outlook of our company or industry. And most importantly, our mission has never been more important for the world. Increasing economic freedom requires a new financial system, and we’re building it.
The Coinbase that emerges from this will be more capable than ever to achieve our mission.
Brian
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@JKD_ff @brian_armstrong @MonetSupply @moo9000 You’re right about them not being “non technical teams” but to say that LLM coding tools do not average meaningful time is just wrong.
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If there are "rigorous human reviews", then these cannot be "non technical teams", obviously.
This is the same story every company is spouting now just to hype their "AI focus".
LLM coding tools do not save meaningful time (if any) when taking into account all the prompting and review, as shown by multiple independent studies.
And if you let non technical teams generate code, you end up needing *more* software engineers to cjeck their work, not fewer.
So tired of this nonsense.
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@WallStreetApes A medium cup of coffee costs $2.95 at Starbucks, where is this $9 nonsense coming from?
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Starbucks CEO defends a cup of coffee costing $9
He says the customers needs to just not think about it as a $9 cup of coffee, you’re paying for the “experience” of getting a Starbucks coffee
“In some cases a $9 experience does feel like you're splurging, and then what that means is we have to make it worthwhile.”
He says Starbucks customers “want to have a special experience and regardless of what your income level is, in some cases, a $9 experience does feel like you're splurging — well, this is a really affordable premium experience”
How out of touch could a person possibly be…
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@markjohnnutter @DoneBeingAfraid @pmarca Might something region depending. I’ve lived in like 3 different countries in Europe and I’ve never seen it before the AI era.
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@PaulADW @DoneBeingAfraid @pmarca The first one is just a dash. I’ve used actual emdashes for decades and I know other people who have too.
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@_everythingism @pranavmishra28 @pmarca LLMs have been trained on millions of people’s unique experiences
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@markjohnnutter @pranavmishra28 @pmarca Except that every single human has their own unique experience of the world they can draw on. Whereas a given AI model is the same for everyone.
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@pmarca "taste" from a model is just the median of its training data wearing a confidence costume. real taste is deviation. and deviation is exactly what gradient descent removes
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@markjohnnutter @Swedish_chef @zeeg @joshpuckett Are you satisfied with your current job after changing careers?
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Everyone is slowly coming to this realization, and I assure you, no one is running multitudes of agents overnight. No one that is doing anything of substance at least.
There _are_ people pretending to be scientists, or fully caught up in their drug infused AI overdose, that think their slop machines are changing the world. They're not tho, and they're just wasting a bunch of money and compute to create a lot of LoC that will just get thrown away.
The state of the art is still "can we even one shot a production quality patch that we wont regret later", and its rarer than you'd expect based on discourse.
Ronan Berder@hunvreus
Talking to smarter folks than me, I'm convinced many of the AI folks in my timeline are full of shit. Nobody is "running 20 agents over night" and building stuff for actual users. Maybe some are building internal tools or disposable software. Maybe. But building software people like using? That doesn't get hacked on day one or blow up after the 3rd user? Nope. I don't even understand what that's supposed to look like. Do you work out a 57 pages document that perfectly describes what you want to build and then summon 14 agents and have them run wild for 6 hours? And what comes out on the other end isn't a broken pile of shit? Nope. Not buying it. PS: it may also be that I have an IQ of 82 and can't figure it out.
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@Swedish_chef @zeeg @joshpuckett This is it exactly. It’s not even about reviewing code for me, it’s that QA has become the bottleneck. I’ve done from a software engineer to a QA person and I’m not particularly good at it (nor do I particularly enjoy it).
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@zeeg @joshpuckett How do you even have time to QA the work of 20 agents? Unless they’re all doing menial tasks it’s a waste. Most devs can’t even QA their own hand coded work 😂
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@mattshumer_ Am I the only one here who hasn’t noticed a change in quality at all? Surely I can’t be doing anything special.
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@fabianstelzer Why does everyone in ai videos talk the same way, it’s so annoying. It always sounds like they’re in a big hurry and have to get all their thoughts out as fast as possible and move onto the next thing.
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We're launching Glif V2 today
...and it created 5 launch videos for us!
Glif is a creative super agent: just tell it what you want to make and it produces incredible outputs using virtually every available AI model.
Create ads, marketing content, films, short form content, voiceovers, music, and more. All in one conversation. Easy to start, endlessly deep.
We're also announcing our $17.5M seed led by @a16z and @usv.
Creatives: You're not cooked. You're the chef now.
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@vultuk 3 agents running 24/7 for 3 months, reviewing every individual PR?
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Talking to smarter folks than me, I'm convinced many of the AI folks in my timeline are full of shit.
Nobody is "running 20 agents over night" and building stuff for actual users. Maybe some are building internal tools or disposable software. Maybe.
But building software people like using? That doesn't get hacked on day one or blow up after the 3rd user? Nope.
I don't even understand what that's supposed to look like. Do you work out a 57 pages document that perfectly describes what you want to build and then summon 14 agents and have them run wild for 6 hours? And what comes out on the other end isn't a broken pile of shit?
Nope. Not buying it.
PS: it may also be that I have an IQ of 82 and can't figure it out.
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@dnscarpitti @1mantruthsquad @podcastnotes @hubermanlab @grok Take a breath, man. Like 5 long breaths.
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@1mantruthsquad @podcastnotes @hubermanlab @grok Anecdotal evidence is still evidence. Now block me bitch.
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Rick Rubin has low heart rate variability.
So he looked up everything that raises it, picked one technique, and started doing it every day.
It worked.
The technique: coherence breathing. 10 to 20 minutes a day, at least once, sometimes twice.
Now he and @hubermanlab do it together on camera so you can follow along:
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@Youclidean @turshija 100% written by ai, or they’ve used ai so much they’ve started to match its annoyingly punchy cadence.
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@chongdashu Reminds me of General Chaos for the Sega Genesis!
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