Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is already dead. Their Word Cup champion market made a pitiful 0.69% of Polymarket's volume World Cup Winner (Polymarket) -> $4.26B volume World Cup Winner (Kalshi) -> $1.2B volume World Cup Winner (Hyperliquid) -> $29M volume ... This is not what we expected from the "Polymarket Killer". And this looks even worse when you consider that @polymarket and @kalshi both list thousands of markets while HIP-4 lists only 10 (ten). Yet they can't even scratch 1% marketshare on the few markets that they have This looks extremely bearish for their platform. They may already have missed their critical take off opportunity with the World Cup. They absolutely need to fix these 3 flaws if they want to survive : 1 - Prediction Market UI looks like trash (not retail friendly) 2 - Only validators can propose new markets 3 - No coherent liquidity incentive program if they don't do it quickly it will be @hyperliquidx first failed product since their launch

@Autonomous_Chad @Outcomexyz can you take a hard look?

@Autonomous_Chad as you said, they need a good consumer app and a good incentive program. if they released an app and allocated even just 10% of the remaining $HYPE to volume and liquidity incentives theyd crush it

Comparing month-2 HIP-4 to Polymarket's biggest market ever is comparing a primitive to a 5-year-old consumer app. No official frontend, no marketing, 10 markets — still did $29M. UI isn't HL's job, that's what builders are for (we're one). But liquidity incentives being missing is real. "Dead" vs "early" depends on the deployer pipeline, not the volume ratio.

@Autonomous_Chad Most important thing is having a retail stream, which they don’t have. Otherwise it’ll die.

@Autonomous_Chad They're doing good on perp, they should focus on one thing now.

@Autonomous_Chad Hyperliquid wants to be the liquidity layer and let others build the prediction markets. That said, I can't disagree with you, you’re right. They need to fix it. Prediction Markets will be a huge revenue driver.

@Autonomous_Chad You are such a retard and probably never used these products. Hip4 is superior, takes time to prevail

calling a two-month-old primitive dead because it did 0.69% of Polymarket's volume on one event is wild when you think about what you're actually comparing... Polymarket has had 2+ years of headstart, KYC-backed institutional market makers, dedicated prediction market UX, and billions in cumulative liquidity depth. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange with traditional finance distribution. HIP-4 launched in may with 10 markets and zero dedicated liquidity incentives... the $29M in volume came from organic flow on a perps exchange that wasn't even designed as a prediction market platform. zero listing fees, zero KYC, CLOB execution instead of AMM. yes it is, but not failed, not yet... the three criticisms are valid though. the UI genuinely needs work, validator-only market proposals bottleneck listing speed, and without liquidity incentives the spreads are too wide for retail. but those are iteration problems, not architectural failures... the real question isn't whether HIP-4 beat Polymarket on the world cup. it's whether a perps-native prediction market primitive with zero fees and composable margin can carve out a structural niche that AMM-based platforms fundamentally cannot serve. that answer isn't in yet...

@Autonomous_Chad bc the ui is shit

@Autonomous_Chad Yeah probably because Kalshi and Polymarket are faking their volumes lmao? Has it ever occured to you?

The problem right now is the core infra/ settlement structure, I am expecting that to change. I have a feeling the current form was a soft roll out to see integration, UI, functionality etc... once we get away from the 28 validator resolving the market and a single deployer handling it things can get very interesting Hyperliquid.

@Autonomous_Chad They should just copy the Kalshi/Polymarket UI. EZ

@Autonomous_Chad 🍿🍿🍿

@Autonomous_Chad @PredMarketWiki Bro doesnt give hip-4 a rest 😆😭 im here for it tho

Comparing volume of Hip-4 (a 2 month old product) to Polymarket and Kalshi is short sighted at best In the current state of affairs, sure Hip-4 has issues but each one can be addressed and will The leading UI will be created by teams building ontop of infrastructure being battle tested. @Outcomexyz have a seamless UI When HL ship permissionless deployment, creating and resolving markets becomes a distributed process, Hyperliquid markets and resolutions will scale On liquidity incentives, it's down to the builders to run these. In fact we've done just that with @monarch_fast, the best price for comparable markets exists on Hip-4, not Polymarket or Kalshi We've seen the story play out for Hip-3, Hip-4 is next up x.com/Jaimin_Buildin…

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