Tod Allen Lewis

@TheStudyofWar @JoshYoung 👀 this would explain a lot

NEW: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and members of his inner circle have likely secured at least temporary control over not only Iran’s military response in this conflict but also Iran’s negotiating position and approach within the past 48 hours. The IRGC Navy attacked several commercial vessels on April 18 and declared that no vessel of “any type or nationality” is permitted passage through the strait, a reversal of Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi’s announcement on April 17 that the strait was “completely open” to commercial traffic. IRGC-affiliated media also announced on April 18 that Iran has not agreed to participate in another round of negotiations with the United States due to “excessive” US demands. Other Key Takeaways: Vahidi and individuals close to him may have effectively controlled the negotiations process throughout the war, which is traditionally a role reserved for political leaders. Vahidi likely intended to impose IRGC oversight over the recent US-Iran talks in Islamabad. The IRGC continued to play an outsized role in Iran’s negotiations after the Islamabad talks. The IRGC’s consolidation of control over Iranian decision-making indicates that the Iranian political officials currently negotiating with the United States do not have the authority to independently determine Iran’s negotiating positions. The IRGC appears to have sidelined more pragmatic figures with whom the United States has negotiated. The IRGC attacked several commercial vessels and halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, likely in order to both gain leverage over the United States and consolidate the IRGC’s control over Iran’s negotiations policy as part of an internally-motivated maneuver. The IRGC likely aims to secure leverage over the United States by halting traffic and driving up shipping and oil prices to impose economic pressure on the United States. The IRGC’s actions are also likely intended to be an internal demonstration of power designed to exhibit the IRGC’s control within the regime, and in particular, its control over Iran’s negotiations policy. The US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports remains in place as of April 18. US CENTCOM said that it forced two ships to turn around and return to Iran between April 17 and 18. The US Navy has forced 23 ships to turn back since the United States began the blockade. No Iranian vessels have attempted to approach or test the blockade line as of this writing.

@ShaleTier7 It will be back in a jiffy lol

@RealPeterLinder Something smells like dead fish…

Today I ate a huge portion of humble pie. However, I am sticking to my bullish outlook for oil producers. Let’s revisit the situation in the Middle East in a couple of weeks. I certainly don’t trust Trump’s comments. I see a nice bounce back in oil producers in a couple of weeks.

@AlaliQasem @CroftHelima @JoshYoung 👀🤔🙄

$760M short on oil. Placed 20 minutes before the Hormuz announcement. This is the 3rd time. March 23: $500M short — 15 minutes before Trump delayed Iran strikes. Oil dropped 15%. April 7: $950M short — hours before the US-Iran ceasefire. April 17: $760M short — 20 minutes before Hormuz declared open. The CFTC is investigating. The ‘peace trade’ was sold to retail. Someone else got out first. Who knew?

@HormuzLetter Iran doing the famous Ali “rope a dope” on us … lol

BREAKING: A source close to Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf says the Hormuz opening will be "practically limited" with three conditions, adding that this is "precisely what Iran has been pursuing since the beginning of the war and is now imposing on America." The conditions: 1. All passage rerouted through Iranian territorial waters via Larak Island, a "historic, unprecedented change ensuring Iran's sovereignty over the strait forever" 2. Only "commercial" ships allowed, with Iran alone deciding which ships qualify, enemy-linked vessels excluded, and tolls still required for security provision 3. All transit coordinated by the IRGC Navy, with Iran's military fully controlling passage through the strait

@Rory_Johnston @staunovo @WarrenPies And also all of these many points below …

@WarrenPies This is just supply loss, from which you'd net both any Asian demand destruction (which is still hard to get a solid read on at this stage) and, in terms of ultimate price effect, you could also subtract the collective SPR release.

As of today, just more than a half billion barrels of oil that were supposed to be produced in the Gulf this year have not been thanks to the closure of Hormuz and forced shut-ins. Using the optimistic assumption that Hormuz flow restarts immediately and shut-in restarts begin on Monday, the total barrel cost of the crisis settles around ~900 million barrels.

@AlaliQasem @JoshYoung 👀 this guy is a great X follow

Oil just dropped 11% because the Strait of Hormuz is “open.” Let me show you why the market is making one of the biggest mistakes of 2026

@FreightAlley @JoshYoung 👀

JB Hunt had one of their strongest earnings calls in years, declaring the Great Freight Recession over. Hunt is a very conservative firm, and CEO Simpson is typically very measured in her comments - this sets the tone for the rest of the carriers as we head into earnings.

@tradeoilstocks lol 😂

Cathie Woods is right. Who needs oil anymore? 13 million bpd have been offline for 6 weeks, with no end in sight, and oil keeps dropping. I’ve learned over the years that the oil market is fucked up beyond belief, so I have more than half my money in tech. Carry on.

@trend_bullish @Rytetz29 Holy F-ing shit! @JoshYoung 😳👀

EIA:😍😍😍 Crude: -0.913M Cushing: -1.727M Gasoline: -6.328M Distillates: -3.122M

@JoshYoung 🧐🤨😳 agreed

HSBC CEO “The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka” That’s a delivered barrel so includes shipping, insurance, etc. But it’s still an eye-watering price to pay. FT full quote:

@JoshYoung @Rory_Johnston Fair point but a kid can dream right? lol

@TodAllenLewis1 @Rory_Johnston It's not Sri Lanka $286, it's $250 WTI

@energyburrito @IEA Ha! So true

@IEA galvanizing their 19th straight year of underestimating demand and overestimating supply.

In my view, this is the biggest misconception in the oil market today. Generalists are looking at it from Strait of Hormuz traffic flow while oil specialists are looking at production shut-in. Generalists are saying, “Well, if there’s a peace agreement or tanker starts to come back, everything will be fine.” Oil specialists are saying, “No, shut-in barrels are barrels that will be replaced via lower storage volumes elsewhere. Tanker availability delays production shut-in returning by 1-2 months. Total barrels lost = 1+ billion bbls.” I don’t think it’s anything more complicated than that. So the only way to change sentiment is for widespread fuel outages.

@GasBuddyGuy At 13 mbpd of crude loss eventually everything breaks …

oil losses accelerating as more details emerge of the US blockade on Iran- it may be a better approach than escalations. WTI crude down $5.50/bbl to $93.59, Brent off $3.50/bbl to $96. gas prices should fall below $4/gal in the days ahead, but re-escalations may change this.

@Rory_Johnston Hahahahha … you’re the best ever.

I'm used to oil hate because, well, I'm not a permabull and normally the dooming is deeply overwrought This episode has been weird bc I'm bullish oil given THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN CLOSED FOR SIX WEEKS and now I've mostly attracted the hate of broader equity market bulls

@WhiteTundraSG @Rytetz29 If memory serves this was a very recent development … only a few months ago he pulled the last of his rigs? I was pretty shocked frankly given his experience and extensive history there … very telling IMHO … love all your posts BTW been following you for years. TY

@TodAllenLewis1 @Rytetz29 Correct, there are currently no rigs operating by Continental

Despite WTI crude oil pricing averaging $100+ per barrel so far in April, we have hit a new cycle-low for drilling rigs operating in North Dakota! Capital discipline + lack of quality drilling locations + harvesting profits = stronger structural oil bull cycle in progress. 🛢💰

@ShaleTier7 Fair enough! Awesome … thank you. 😊

@ShaleTier7 Love the above analysis. Productivity is getting uglier though … won’t costs increase as we burn through Tier 1 or will technology continue to save the world? We shall see!