bibilabu
350 posts
BREAKING: Iran officially and formally exits the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with the United States, with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi saying, effective immediately, Iran is suspending all commitments and will not implement any of them after the US “violated and suspended all of its commitments” first, and is now purely focused on defending the country, per Tasnim.
Gharibabadi says Iran will “never start negotiations with the US under any circumstances.”
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@Autonomous_Chad Even though I have been scammed by Polymarket, I would say these claims are not even wrong.
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Another slop hit piece against Prediction Markets.
Straight into the trash.
Mainstream journalists just can't understand that prediction markets are NOT SportsBooks
1) "Polymarket and Kalshi are setting odds as to capture insider informations"
I don't know what this is supposed to mean in the best of case.
But Polymarket is not setting any odds anyway, the market does. They have no control over that.
2) "Prediction markets could incur financial losses if they let insiders win"
Prediction markets do not bet against their users. This is what SportsBooks do.
Prediction markets are a neutral platforms where users bet against other users. They do not care who loses or win a bet.
3) "Prediction markets give opportunities for world leaders to insider trade"
True but they didn't wait on Prediction Markets and they are not even good for that.
Every time Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, we saw Billion dollars oil future trades hit the market a few minute before, making hundred of millions in profit.
Try to place a billion dollar order on Geopolitical prediction markets with a few hundred thousands of liquidity.
For some reason Mainstream media seems to absolutely hate prediction markets and churn out these trash hit pieces on the regular.
I would advise @polymarket to put a few dollars from their marketing budget into educating the wider public. Because this may seem very retarded to us, but so are the people reading it, and they vote.
TheHillOpinion@TheHillOpinion
The dark side of prediction markets is getting even darker tinyurl.com/2s4kewb6
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The MoU between US and Iran is dead.
No party is respecting any clauses of the MoU anymore :
- Hormuz closed
- blockade back
- sanctions back
- Fighting restarted
Yet despite all that "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations" is trading at only 40% for July.
Is it a free 250% return ?
No, because the rules require an clear, unconditional, definitive announcement of withdrawal from MoU related negotiations.
Clear, definitive and unconditional is rarely the language of diplomacy.
In reality it's more convenient for both parties to just stop complying with the MoU and blame it violation from the other side rather than to come out publicly and admit that they are walking away from a deal that they signed.
That's why I believe that despite Iran de facto walking away from the MoU, we might not get the official statement needed to resolve this market to YES
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Sources:
NPR, 2026-06-18, "Read the full text of Trump's preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war", npr.org/2026/06/18/nx-…
CNN, 2026-06-17, "The official text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding", cnn.com/2026/06/17/mid…
Swiss FDFA, 2026-06-22, "Memorandum of Understanding between the USA and Iran", eda.admin.ch/en/memorandum-…
Polymarket market description, accessed 2026-07-13, "Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?", polymarket.com/event/who-will…
Truth Terminal: araistotle.facticity.ai/terminal/marke…
Analysis powered by ArAIstotle Truth Terminal
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⚠️ RISK ALERT: Netanyahu Signs U.S.-Iran Deal By July 31
On Polymarket, this bet looks simpler than it is: Netanyahu does NOT need to broker a new U.S.-Iran deal, he just needs to sign a written agreement that already has both countries as parties by July 31. But what exactly counts as a “written agreement,” and does a later third-party signature by Netanyahu actually qualify?
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bibilabu retweetledi
polymarket.com/event/us-x-ira… so bombs are dropping but the MOU was a permanent deal? @Polymarket @shayne_coplan
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@GollumGekko1 @0xDinoCrypto Iliterate Gollum cannot read the whole paragraph of Clause 1 and cannot understand what the final sentence in Clause 1 means.
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@0xDinoCrypto The market asked for a deal that states that the war is over
The MOU had a clause that said that
Idiots thought they can cuck it and say it’s a temporary MOU
If you’re too dumb to understand why this went yes, you should stay out of the prediction market space
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bibilabu retweetledi
The United States has now declared the ceasefire effectively over, and the US and Iran are exchanging strikes again. Iranian civilians are once again paying the price. (Reuters)
Yet Polymarket resolved a market asking whether the two countries had reached a “permanent peace deal” to YES—based on an interim arrangement that was supposed to lead to further negotiations. (TNW | The heart of tech)
The fighting has resumed.
So where exactly is the “permanent” peace?
People’s suffering is not a word game, and market rules should not become one either.
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@Deepseeki7 @GollumGekko1 @0xDinoCrypto MoU is always temporary.
And for sure, MoU would be worded in a way pointing to the potential future definitive agreement while stay as a primary framework.
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@GollumGekko1 @0xDinoCrypto The rules of that market required us officials and Iranian officials as characterizing the mou as permanent (or a consensus of reporting that U.S. and Iranian officials had done so). U.S. officials NEVER, to this day, characterized it as permanent. The MOU is explicitly temporary
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@0xDinoCrypto Market rule specifically used the term “definitive agreement”, which is a formal term in negotiations.
Ironically, Yes holder citing Clause1 while ignoring the last sentence of Clause1.
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bibilabu retweetledi
@0xashensoul @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Please do not forget about the permanent peace deal one.
Pure scam. Against Rule + Against Reality.
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being right about reality should not be a losing trade.
that is why the Ronaldo crying polymarket matters.
a lot of recent polymarket disputes became rules-lawyer trades.
MSTR “sell bitcoin” was the obvious one.
the event happened, but the market came down to timing, wording, and disclosure mechanics.
the edge was not predicting whether something happened.
the edge was understanding whether Polymarket would count it.
and that is usually where sharper money has the edge.
but normal users do not think like that.
ask them if Ronaldo cried at the World Cup.
they look at the footage and say yes.
if that somehow resolved NO, the product would feel broken.
Polymarket still needs rules.
but those rules need to feel closer to reality.
less lawyerball.
more reality.
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Polymarket did another scam
First, Polymarket insiders bought No when Yes was trading at 70%
Ronaldo cried after the match
But Polymarket still dumped the market to 3%
All the No holders (insiders) cashed out
After that, the community put pressure on Polymarket that Ronaldo cried in the match
Polymarket took time and told all insiders to buy Yes
All insiders bought Yes at 3%
Then they pumped it to 100%
Polymarket team & insiders made money on both sides and the community got rekt
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@shtanga0x @Polymarket CFTC regulation matters, and Polymarket is trying to get certification.
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If I understand it right @Polymarket intern just came and changed the rules of the Cristiano market midmarket.
Many sharps were on the NO side following the established rules of voting and discussion.
Today it changed. Forever.
@Polymarket can just come to any market and decide for themselves how the market should be resolved. Any time they disagree, they intervene.
Revolutionary path; I am not sure everyone agrees. What do you think? I was on the NO side personally, and it cost me.
shtanga0x@shtanga0x
There are many proofs provided by YES side hodlers for the Ronaldo cry event on @Polymarket What is your opinion? Did he cry? And more importantly, are there clearly visible tears on his face? Traders are studying the most expensive tear in sports history, the market volume exceeds $6million, and there is still no consensus.
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@JakeTheLarp @Polymarket x.com/paretoprincipl…
He deserves it. Same market rule, opposite clarifications.
Eternity@ParetoPrincipl
We have 2 markets. Same rules - different clarifications. Traders get screwed over. Let's sink into it. First market — "What will Trump say during Fox Business interview on April 15?". We have rules - "The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution." And we have clarification - "Prerecorded footage from this interview will qualify toward this market's resolution if it is aired within timeframe." Second market - "What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?" We have rules - "The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution." And we have clarification - “only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market’s resolution.” Markets have the SAME rules, but a different clarification. It's a serious violation of market integrity. It's impossible to traded fair when no can predict how rules of market is has to be meant. The clarification on the market "What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?" was issued WRONGLY, without due diligence. We got totally ghosted by the Polymarket team. Draw attention to this matter. We expect Polymarket to refund the YES-holders of the market "What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?".
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BREAKING: SUSPICION HAS RISEN THAT BOSAURUM HAS LEFT @Polymarket AFTER YEARS OF STAFFING.
HE HAS CLARIFIED 75% OF THE MARKETS ON THE PLATFORM.
HIS ROLES IN THE POLYMARKET DISCORD HAVE BEEN REMOVED.
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@adjacent___ @CFTC @Polymarket @Kalshi @ForecastEx Polymarket is going to be certified with frauds in political market?
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Yesterday was a busy day at the @CFTC with 11 total certifications; 7 by @Polymarket US (QCEX), 3 by @Kalshi (KEX) and 1 by @ForecastEx (FEX)
Ranging from political impeachment to court case outcomes.
cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…
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@willo2_Poly Suspicious clarification as always.
Eternity@ParetoPrincipl
We have 2 markets. Same rules - different clarifications. Traders get screwed over. Let's sink into it. First market — "What will Trump say during Fox Business interview on April 15?". We have rules - "The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution." And we have clarification - "Prerecorded footage from this interview will qualify toward this market's resolution if it is aired within timeframe." Second market - "What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?" We have rules - "The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution." And we have clarification - “only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market’s resolution.” Markets have the SAME rules, but a different clarification. It's a serious violation of market integrity. It's impossible to traded fair when no can predict how rules of market is has to be meant. The clarification on the market "What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?" was issued WRONGLY, without due diligence. We got totally ghosted by the Polymarket team. Draw attention to this matter. We expect Polymarket to refund the YES-holders of the market "What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?".
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1 month ago, Polymarket scammed me for $500K, with 1,868 traders losing a total of $6.5M.
Now we're taking Polymarket to court.
Burwick Law@BurwickLaw
Polymarket lawsuit:
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Real crisis of confidence @Polymarket . Firing head of markets and flipping a .96c market on the same day is something only they could pull off.
I would not recommend anyone bet on any contestable markets for several months.
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I just made $10,000+ on Ronaldo crying at the World Cup
I spent hours going through thousands of photos trying to find that one picture that showed a tear and I found it.
Car@CarOnPolymarket
Currently millions are being wagered on if Ronaldo cried at the World Cup today. After elimination Ronaldo seemed to be crying, however traders are currently trying to find an actual tear, so the market can resolve to "Yes". So far $5,000,000 has been wagered.
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