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Guess which country won't be spending $200b on maintaining the oil supply of its biggest geopolitical rival? The US spent $7tn in Afghanistan and Iraq while China built a national high-speed rail network and the largest renewable energy capacity in the world.

Investors are now betting overall US inflation over the next 12 months will surge above 5%. Implied inflation rate from 1 year breakeven, per Bloomberg @business @TheTerminal

The reason the E7 put out the statement on the Straits of Hormuz yesterday was precisely to control for this risk. Understand Rutte was key in getting that language together, again because of the risk he/the Europeans now see regarding NATO and Ukraine from a vengeful US

Good point

Don't want to be bring the bad news, but their ability to shut Hormuz is longer than that, unless there is ground invasion. It just takes a few hits on tankers to shut it, that's the asymmetry

In a world where interdependence will be weaponized, the Gulf states will not redirect their critical energy flows through Israel to make it a hub It would be strategic suicide

Total U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear sites during this war: 0

Politico EU: Moscow proposed a quid pro quo to the U.S. under which the Kremlin would stop sharing intelligence information with Iran, such as the precise coordinates of U.S. military assets in the Middle East, if Washington ceased supplying Ukraine with intel about Russia. Two people familiar with the U.S.-Russia negotiations said that such a proposal was made by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev to Trump administration envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during their meeting last week in Miami.

New report on the chasm between the US & Israel’s end game: “Israel is pursuing a scorched-earth campaign of regime change, which isn't our goal,” says senior admin official. “Bibi wants to wreck Iran’s economy & decimate its energy infrastructure. Trump wants to keep it intact”

We're going to force Iran to capitulate but we're also going to let them sell their oil to whoever wants it for $100+ a barrel.

Still yet to hear any official denial that this F-35 video is exactly what it purports to be, and the disclosure that the pilot suffered shrapnel wounds only seems to back this up. That the pilot was wounded shows the blast was closer than many have said, and again speaks volumes for the F-35's survivability in this instance...

Two things: -US plan to take Kharg will only be feasible after another "month" of bombing. -the idea is to force Iran to capitulate by using Kharg as a bargaining chip; I have a pretty strong gut feeling that's not going to work. axios.com/2026/03/20/ira…

I told @amanpour that the Iranian leadership is nowhere near the brink of collapse. cnn.com/2026/03/19/tv/…

Former CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel: "I think the worst case now would be if we’ve found positive evidence of the Strait being mined… That would really extend out the time [for opening the Strait]. We probably have to assume that there are mines in there right now. But a serious mining effort by Iran could really complicate and slow things down." twz.com/news-features/…

Trump has truly tanked with Independents. Too much attention to MAGA, not enough to Independents.

When tankers are stacked up at Yanbu and the market has fully priced-in Saudi moving 5-7m bpd through the East-West line, a Houthi entry--even on a small-scale--would seriously rattle markets and prices. That could be the play.

🇾🇪💢 Houthi leader: “All options…are on the table” Some key comments: 🔸 On the objectives of the war: “The American-Zionist aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran comes because they consider it the greatest obstacle in this Ummah. The enemies are trying to remove the Islamic Republic because they hope to be able to control the situation in the region in general. It is very clear in America and in the West that the ongoing aggression against the Islamic Republic is a Zionist aggression within the framework of Zionist beliefs. The main headline of the Zionist aggression against the Islamic Republic is reshaping the Middle East and establishing ‘Greater Israel.’” 🔸 On the U.S. administration: “The official composition in the Trump administration, including what is referred to as the Secretary of War, is a Zionist composition. The U.S. Secretary of War is one of the most prominent believers in Zionism, adhering to its ideology and actively working to implement its plans. The so-called Zionist U.S. Secretary of War openly and explicitly adopts hostility toward Islam and Muslims, and even insults the Prophet Muhammad (peace and blessings be upon him and his family). The U.S. Secretary of War advocates for an American crusade against Muslims, and has authored a book years ago under that title.” 🔸 On their position: “Our stance toward the aggression against Iran, Lebanon, and Palestine, and the violation of holy sites, is a principled position of hostility toward the Zionist enemy and a commitment to exert efforts to confront it. We affirm our support for Iran, Lebanon, Palestine, and the holy sites, and our readiness at the military level as required by developments on the ground. All options at the military level are on the table. Escalation and the expansion of aggression are the path of the enemies in their actions in the region, and this is what we observe through our monitoring of events and our tracking of the enemies’ directions.” Full speech: 👇

More FM for the masses. This suggests they received a formal FM notice from QatarGas. This affects the chip industry.

Iran has two important components of its nuclear program still remaining. The first is the HEU stockpile. The second is the indigenous knowledge base. Getting the first is tough. Getting the second is impossible. The Iranians will always have the ability to rebuild. Unless there's a deal.

"Saudi light crude is already being sold to Asian buyers via its Red Sea port for around $125 a barrel. As extra oil in storage is used up, physical shortages will bite more deeply next week, causing prices to close in on $138 to $140. By the second week of April, with no easing of the supply disruptions and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, the Saudi officials said they expected prices could hit $150 before stepping up to $165 and $180 in the weeks ahead." "The market isn't acting like this is an end-of-March thing any more." wsj.com/finance/commod…