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Busy Iran 🇮🇷 Kharg Island TODAY 👇. 2 VLCC, 1 Suezmax and a coastal tanker spotted loading up. Screwup in VLCC at 29.2309, 50.2837 resulted in crude oil spill. Not sure how large because most we are seeing is extremely thin silvery sheen, not thick black crude.

6 MAY 2026 @CopernicusEU #Sentinel2 🛰️📷 Kharg Island Significant oil slick spotted. H/t @TankerTrackers See @UANI Iran War Shipping Update today for more info: unitedagainstnucleariran.com/blog/ @JemimaShelley @mercoglianos @MT_Anderson @tom_bike @tldraanan @MarcusHand1

Oil slick, seems to be pouring out of a ship on Kharg Island's west jetty. Two ships loading on the east jetty. Some ship / undersea pipe was struck ?

I spoke with the president this morning for @NewsHour - we mostly discussed Iran. We also talked about gas prices - and the cost of the White House ballroom when Americans are struggling to afford things like gas. The interview is here: pbs.org/newshour/natio…

‼️ The Trump Administration new counterterrorism strategy is out & identifies what it called 3 major types of terror groups: • Narcoterrorists and Transnational Gangs • Legacy Islamist Terrorists • Violent Left-Wing Extremists, including Anarchists and Anti-Fascists The strategy describes Iran as the greatest threat in the Middle East, signals an intention to designate the Muslim Brotherhood in #Egypt and #Sudan, and plans to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Africa. More details soon..

Breaking: Last night, the Iranian Air Defense Force shot down multiple drones over the Hormuz Strait, including this MQ-9A Reaper armed drone of the U.S. Air Force flown from Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. The remains of the drone were found by local fishers, who can be seen unloading them at a port on Qeshm Island. #OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

民主党の一部議員が、政権に対し、イスラエルの核保有を公的に認めるよう求める書簡を提出。イスラエルによる核使用の基準が、アメリカの想定よりも低いのではないかという議論も。イスラエルへの兵器供与に反対する議員が増えていると同様で、この問題も長期的にはイスラエルには逆風となるだろうな。 Some Democrats press Trump to break silence on Israel’s nuclear arsenal washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Last night, a very senior Israeli intelligence source estimated that if the status quo blockade remains, the Islamic Republic “will not survive 2026.” Predicting the complete collapse of a half-century-old theocracy within the next eight months sounds like a bold gamble—until you look at the math. The Iranian rial is in freefall, crashing to 1.8 million to the U.S. dollar. That is a 25 percent plunge from the exchange rate that triggered mass protests just this past January—and it’s only getting worse. To prevent mass starvation, the government is propping up a heavily subsidized exchange rate of 285,000 rials per dollar just to import basic food supplies. The wider economy is faring no better. Even before the blockade, non-oil trade had plummeted by 50 percent. The much-touted economic “pivot to China” has failed entirely, trade is down 80 percent, and regional hubs for evading sanctions, like the UAE, have slammed their doors shut. Two million Iranians have lost their jobs already, and that number is expected to skyrocket. But the most devastating blow has landed on the regime’s lifeblood: oil. Right now, Iran has 184 million barrels of oil sitting uselessly on the water. Roughly 60 million of those barrels are physically trapped inside the blockade zone across the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The other 124 million are anchored near China, but buyers are too terrified of secondary U.S. sanctions to touch them. Between stalled oil and frozen petrochemical exports, the blockade is draining the regime of an estimated $400 million to $500 million every single day. Worse, this blockade is rapidly evolving into an existential crisis for Iran’s energy sector. Once Iran’s onshore and floating storage tanks reach 100 percent capacity—which is expected within 15 to 60 days—the state will be forced to physically shut in active oil wells. For mature oil fields, capping wells amounts to a death sentence, as the underground pressure required to extract the oil dissipates. If this happens, Iran could permanently lose 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day of production capacity. That is $9 billion to $15 billion in annual revenue wiped out. Iran currently has a surplus of men with guns and a deficit of loyalty. The only things bridging that gap are fear and cash—and when the latter runs out, the former loses its edge. In a desperate bid for survival, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has begun cannibalizing the state, hoarding whatever liquidity remains at the cost of the rest of the system. Some regular army units and police forces have now gone unpaid for months. These are not the ingredients for a peaceful transition. The regime will inevitably resort to massacres to keep its grip on power, but there comes a point where desperation will simply override fear. The ultimate result remains the same: the death of the Islamic Republic. However, this entire strategy relies on the colossal “if” of the blockade continuing—a foundation built on the most unpredictable ground in global politics: Donald Trump. Yesterday, Trump suspended Project Freedom, the humanitarian initiative to reopen the Strait of Hormuz via military escort. This pivot follows a direct request from Pakistan and other mediating nations, which convinced the administration to pause operations “for a short period of time” in order to see “whether or not the agreement can be finalized.” As I noted yesterday, Project Freedom fundamentally alters the regional calculus. By potentially reopening the strait to commercial traffic, it could transform what was once a two-way street of passive economic pressure into a one-way street directed squarely at Iran. The prospect of abandoning this initiative—and worse, reaching a negotiated settlement that hands Tehran economic relief—is exactly what keeps Israeli security officials awake at night. Fortunately for their sleep schedules, the enemy gets a vote, and the regime is not opting for diplomacy. Iranian attacks on the UAE, in retribution for Project Freedom, continued yesterday, entirely bypassing the desperate objections of the civilian leadership. It appears the internal takeover is nearly complete: IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi has formed a “military council” that now monopolizes all contact with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, effectively blocking civilian leader President Masoud Pezeshkian’s attempts to call an emergency meeting to halt the strikes. It is entirely possible these strikes are a bluff intended to maximize their bargaining position, but bluffs only work if you are prepared to have them called. By ordering the attack on the UAE, Vahidi’s faction revealed its calculus: a renewed military conflict with Washington and Jerusalem is an acceptable cost of doing business. Men willing to trigger a regional war just to hold onto a bargaining chip are not the kind of men who will see a diplomatic settlement through to the end. If Israel hopes to sustain the blockade through the end of 2026, there is the unavoidable matter of the American midterms to contend with. Even with kinetic action paused, House and Senate Republicans have reportedly expressed concern to the president over a continuing conflict during an election cycle. Then again, that concern assumes that the midterms are the highest item on Trump’s list of priorities. Ultimately, Iran will be his legacy, and Trump isn’t the one facing re-election.

Exclusive: Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites since the war began, according to a Post analysis. The amount of destruction is far larger than what was previously reported. wapo.st/3OXKBTv

トルコのニュース専門局。イスタンブールのスタジオのキャスターも、テヘラン現地の記者も女性。しかも、内容を分かって話している。毎日、この調子で報道番組と討論番組が続く

アラクチ外相の中国訪問について中国側は「米とイランとの和平交渉を戦争へと逆戻りさせるな」と釘を刺したとトルコのCNNは伝えている。アラクチも「戦争終結後イランは国際舞台で新たな協力関係を構築する」みたいな事を言っていてこれは何か言われたなという感じ。日本の報道は掴んでいない

【重要】イランのカリバフ国会議長の国民向けメッセージ、これはかなり重要。バシジ(革命防衛隊の義勇民兵)への指示を含んでいて国内の統制を図る内容。これを読む限り、トランプに妥協する気配なし。

今回、トランプにプロジェクトフリーダムの停止を求めたのはパキスタンとサウジ。サウジは当初イラン攻撃を支持してたが、今は停戦推進派。逆にUAEは当初攻撃に反対だったが、今は攻撃支持。そして、イランはオペレーションフリーダムへの報復でUAEを攻撃した。

Interesting comments from Japan's former METI minister Yasutoshi Nishimura at @HudsonInstitute today. He said: "Cooperation between Japan and like-minded Middle Powers such as the U.K., Europe, Canada and Australia have become increasingly important. By combining strengths like British finance, Canadian and Australian energy and resources, we aim to create a resilient network that serves as an anchor of stability." I asked him, "What if America's preferences and the Middle Powers' preferences collide? Which side is Japan going to take? " Minister Nishimura said it it not an either-or. Japan's role is to bridge the differences between the U.S. and Middle Powers. Like with TPP -- when Japan kept the group together after the U.S. withdrew -- there is a role for Japan to play, he said. youtube.com/live/9Q5_eabiZ…

JUST IN: President Trump vows to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon as a naval blockade remains in place. "We're not going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon, and we're not going to let that happen. And, we won't let that happen. And so we're, we're dealing with people that want to make a deal very much, and we'll see whether or not they can make a deal that satisfactory to us."

'یکشنبه ۱۰ اسفند، March 1 ' ویدیوی دریافتی با شرح: 'انفجار حمله به سپاه کهنز #شهریار از دوربین ماشین. تازه تونستم به اینترنت وصل بشم.' #Iran

親ヒズボラの報道機関によると、テヘランは譲歩しておらず、交渉には核問題は含まれていないこと、そしてイランがホルムズ海峡を支配し続けていることを強調

This is the route the US Navy is advising ships stuck in the Arabian Gulf to use to avoid the Iranian military. The channel hugs the coast of Oman and is south of the deeper route that vessels took before the war. But the Iranians have struck at least two vessels, one Emirati and one South Korean, in the area, in an act condemned by those governments. The coastal route is believed to be shallower than the main channel, which the US says has been mined by Iran. The blue route to the north is the so-called Tehran tollbooth, which the regime reportedly charges $2 million to pass - but allows Iran-linked 'dark tankers' through for free

*TRUMP: IF IRAN DOESN’T AGREE TO DEAL, THE BOMBING STARTS *TRUMP: IF IRAN AGREES, THEN EPIC FURY WILL END, HORMUZ WILL OPEN

📽️Abas Aslani, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, told Drop Site that Iran believes the U.S. may not be willing to sustain a prolonged confrontation for “several months,” despite recent escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking this morning, Aslani said Tehran sees no guarantee Washington would honor any future agreement, pointing to Trump abandoning the 2015 nuclear deal and citing Gaza, Syria, and Venezuela as examples where U.S. promises or sanctions policy remained unchanged, despite agreements with the United States. He said this distrust is why Iran insists on a phased process that does not front-load major Iranian concessions, and refuses to immediately export its highly enriched uranium. @jeremyscahill | @AbasAslani