Alpha Tango

Everybody relax; it's much worse than you think...

@DonMiami3 @TonyNashNerd The average person is weaker mentally, physically, emotionally, and spiritually, than the average person in '29. If that happens, it won't work out too well...

@TonyNashNerd Need ‘29

This sucks. We need outright deflation.

@OilCoIntern Europe is gonna freeze over this winter, they cant stock enough gas.

Hell will freeze over before a personal apology is made

@PrognosticApex Nah bro these 🥷 in the white house out here trippin...

Camping was great. How we looking fam? Got that straight open? Israel done bombing? Did we sign that deal in Switzerland?

@JoshYoung It should already be about $175 lol

Weekend oil +3.4%

@TOzgokmen *3 weeks now...

Are people really thinking that Trump is James Bond and JD is Ethan Hunt, who have any capacity to save the world with 4 weeks left on oil reserves & Iran having conditioned the world's most important oil trade on Jews being forced out of Israel? Delusional...

@LinkedInLunat1c Meanwhile people like Bill Gross wear $50 Casios...

A cheap Rolex makes you look uneducated

@Cheekybaua @RazorOil It's bout to get juicy as a mf real soon regardless...

@RazorOil Very interesting theory, if so, it’s gonna get real juicy real fkn soon ⌛️🛢️🚀

So I was thinking, you know how Trump said that they only had “4 weeks for inventories” therefore needed the agreement… Exact quote: “Also, we run out of reserves in about four weeks. You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out, and there’ll be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it. And you want to see bedlam?" What if he was talking about the agreement they made with China during his visit there, what if the Chinese committed to a certain timeframe before they start buying… and what if Iran is aware of that…( perhaps an amateur speculation hour but I don’t do it often so don’t judge…)🤨🪒

@OilCoIntern @cadeinvests Very good point. What will happen when things turn is they will panic, turning the correction into an overcorrection. "Weak men create hard times", cliche' but true...

This is a good reminder that every person under the age of 40 thinks of themselves as elite investors. They’ve never lost. Everything they touch gets 15%+ without fail. Their houses have gained hundreds of thousands in equity with minimal down payments and zero percent rates. It will be interesting to see what happens when things turn.

Sit back and admire how great the S&P 500 has done the last 10 years. Generational run. Who knows what’s next.

@BrettErickson28 U know what I'mma say...

Increasingly concerned this MOU is falling apart

@BillPilgrim18 Option 1 is the blatantly obvious answer. If Biden made all the exact same statements in the exact same situation, you would say dementia without question. The idea of any other possibility is laughable. The president is looney...

This talk makes no sense if Trump just surrendered. It makes a ton of sense if new operations are commencing soon. The same goes for the press conference at the G7. The same goes for everything he has been saying, including in the Axios interview, "There are no limits (on my power)... [The MOU] really probably is unconditional surrender (for Iran)." Here are the two options: Option 1. Trump barely has the cognition to speak, and is deluded to the point of debilitation. Option 2. Trump is aware the MOU is terrible, so if he's talking about "warriors", "no limits" on power, and Iran's "unconditional surrender," there is something else in store. If you are good at reading people, you can even pick up the deception in some other people involved. Bessent, Bibi (the worst two liars), Vance, Rubio. They are acting, and they let it slip, fairly often. Trump never lets it slip. He is the best liar I have ever seen. youtube.com/watch?v=X0NWVb…

Earlier this morning, Pakistan's National Hydrographic Office reported a confirmed mine sighting in the southern Omani transit lane through Hormuz. Bloomberg: The mine was reported just off the northwest tip of the Musandam peninsula, the Omani exclave that protrudes into the strait. All vessels transiting through the area are advised to navigate with extreme caution, the notice said.

@SigEStructure @MarhelmData Bingo

That’s why they are rationing diesel and asking people to stay home. And certainly helps that Russian refinery attacks will cut 1.5Mbpd of exports, which India gets 30% of crude supply from Russia. I’d work on your data context. Not just data reporting. The world works in flows - not facts.

Indian refiners hold ~2 months of crude inventory and aren't rushing for Middle East barrels despite Hormuz reopening.

@AmirAminiMD Western white imperialists always try to emasculate their adversaries. It's one of their favorite tactics. We all know why...

@OilCoIntern What in the unseasoned chicken is this?

POV engineering intern at Oil Co was just told he’s working Reservoir this summer instead of Production

@Jonalius @PrognosticApex Even if the strait opened today, how would your thesis be possible, young man? By the end of August, people may be killing each other in the street over a gallon of spoiled milk...

@PrognosticApex You’ll get a good bounce and the narrative will be some of the things you’ve listed which is good to trade on, but by end of August oil will be dead money

Soooo... Y'all ready for something to pop off in the Persian Gulf this weekend? Something is coming that's gonna send oil higher. Maybe it's just enough that Cramer is trolling bulls 🤷 Notice how it's reacting to this trend line on the 30m. Notice the MACD lines and RSI curls on the 3h. Notice the bullish divergence on the MACD histo 3h. Mr Market done got everyone to trash their oil longs. Errrrbody moved to one side of the boat. Have any ships transit the straight? How many out of 130? Is Israel done bombing? How's Cushing doing? SPR? Saw a few long time bulls capitulate today. (I went longER) Now we flip. Let er rip.

@erickmiles @masonisonx @atrupar Oh no, they didn't begrudgingly vote for this guy. They absolutely loved it. Even if they knew then, all they know now? They'd still take him over the black lady with the cackle laugh. That's how moronic they are...

@masonisonx @atrupar Gender and race had some role in it. Despite people not wanting to admit it. I get policy differences. But to just sit home and not vote or begrudgingly vote for this guy?

I’ve seen people tie bandanas on dogs with more dignity than this

@BCapoo11280 @DarioCpx The real world operational minimum is actually closer to 150mm barrels. At 70mm it would be unusable sludge...

@DarioCpx Reports say the SPR has 349 mmb left (5th May IEA report?). 70 mmb is the minimum before the salt cavern walls have integrity issues. If they draw down 10 mmb/d, they only have 29.7 days left, which matches what Trump rightly said about having only 4 weeks left.

Trump: “I had to make a deal with Iran because we only had 4 weeks of oil reserves left” I am looking forward to traders figuring out that the “4 weeks” count started on the last week of May and not this Wednesday

@BillPilgrim18 I'll take "he's just that dumb huh", for $500, Alex. Because, even assuming he's not dementia addled and unhinged, as he seems? The 5D chess didn't work. It's too late. Leverage gone $300B ostensibly gone. And tank bottoms will hit regardless...

After the US joins Israel in attacking Iran again, people will say Israel dragged Trump back into war. Right, he was willing to surrender and debase himself to Iran with the worst deal ever signed, because the global economy would collapse otherwise. But he wasn't willing to debase himself by not supporting Israel, even though by doing so he makes the global economy collapse? He's just that dumb, huh? Or could it be Trump's actually an incredibly good liar? 🙏

@PrognosticApex @MacroAlphaHQ Nice

@MacroAlphaHQ Better view...

🚨 The paper energy market is about to experience a violent collision with physical reality. Everyone on this app is hyperventilating over AI chip earnings while Cushing is quietly hitting operational tank bottoms. We are at 20 million barrels at the primary $WTI pricing hub. That is less than two days of domestic production before you start sucking up water, sludge, and sediment. You cannot magically pump vapor when the physical pressure drops below engineering thresholds. Meanwhile the SPR is sitting at 1983 levels because politicians drained the strategic buffer to suppress retail gas prices for an election cycle. There is no emergency valve left to pull when the next geopolitical supply shock hits the market. Retail traders are blindly shorting energy futures because they think a macro slowdown guarantees zero demand. They do not understand that paper contracts are entirely useless if the delivery mechanism physically cannot extract the underlying collateral. The commercial commodity desks know exactly how structurally tight this is getting. They are positioning to squeeze the absolute life out of the paper shorts who think crude is just a ticker symbol. You are about to learn the severe difference between financialized assets and actual molecules.

@Rory_Johnston I'm surprised you're this sanguine. I think you're way too optimistic here. If anybody thinks Iran would come to the table just a few weeks before America feels real pain? You're about to be very disappointed. This is a setup...

We're gonna get many Israel-Hezbollah flare ups through this post-MOU period. I don't currently expect that either Washington or Tehran will allow them to scuttle the deal. But there's a good chance that Tehran will use them as a justification for slow-playing compliance.