Draft Taproom

@DNeckel19 Maybe that’s the only way Grunloh can have a chance at all-defensive team.

@DraftTaproom They nominated both Ugo and Johann for Defensive Player of the Year.

Apparently @theACC only allows one player per school for Sixth Man of the Year Award. Virginia's bench has double the minutes, points, rebounds, assists, etc of several other ACC teams. Seems silly.

@DNeckel19 You can nominate multiple players, but you are probably better off picking one to consolidate votes. There are no write-in candidates (according to a 2022 article by Luke DeCock).

Apparently this is either a new rule, or Duke cheated last year, or you can write people in. This was last year:

@PWOPod A few other 100 point games since then: 107-97 vs VMI (11/16/08) 100-64 vs Marshall (12/31/18). Late three pointer by @WhiteMamba_GK20. Tony’s 300th coaching win. 104-78 vs Marshall (11/15/25)

#UVA overcomes a 19-point deficit and survives 2 overtimes to win at Notre Dame, 100-97. It’s the Hoos’ first 100 point game since 2007. A huge and necessary win for the Cavaliers.

@MLBRandomStats @JoshChambers Don’t beat yourself up for not reading the article, he didn’t write the article anyway. It’s from @kenpomeroy’s blog in 2005: “The Value of Ben Gillery”

@JoshChambers Gotcha. I didn’t read the article (my fault), so the screenshot implies that winning the tip = 3.5%, which is a bit misleading without that context

@CLARS24 @FezzikSports Ignoring Future Value, here are the Expected Values for each pick. Source: 10,000 simulations @Duke_Boi @FezzikSports @robpizzola

@FezzikSports You can’t be serious. I’m done trying to help you.

Fezz you don’t understand tail outcomes as this is brutal “math”. Using his example, 1 person selects CHI. 550 PHI, say 249 select BAL and 200 select KC. Say BAL/KC both have a 80% win probability. ( higher win probability then what they actually were ) When CHI wins, on “average” there’s only 450 - .2 * 449 =360.2 entries left, so with the fezz logic you would have only gotten like ~+180 ML on your CHI entry. This is logic that fezz is doing by taking average entries left which is completely incorrect. In this hypothetical there is a 4% chance that both BAL & KC lose. Even if we assume CHI was only 20% to win, you ship the entire contest 0.8% of the time. Effectively a +800 ML even when assuming you win 0% of the time when CHI wins and other BAL/KC entries survive. I understand this example is not the real scenario, but it should illustrate the importance of tail outcomes in survivor and why using averages gets you to wildly incorrect assumptions. An EV calc clearly shows you that the CHI EV was considerably higher than PHI in most/all survivor contests. It also shows that the DAL/CIN EV was close, and considering Future Value it is pretty clear PHI was the worst pick. Pictured is the EV from the Circa Survivor contest taking a win probability mix from the contest deadline and close. Again, PHI was a brutal pick.

@Mike_kim714 Doesn’t singles highlight the issues of the first two days? Singles is the easiest format to “Captains”. Now it’s clear the Friday/Saturday pairings cost the US the cup.

I hope this finish doesn’t stop Team USA from looking at the entire process that led to the first two days. Clearly there are issues that need to be fixed.

@NoahBairCuse Cool app! How do you get the win percentages? They are pretty far off from the market numbers.

Ever wonder what the data says the best survivor picks are for the rest of the season? My recently published website allows you to input who you chose in your pools for Weeks 1 and 2 then it spits out the most optimal picks for the remaining 16 weeks. noahbair.shinyapps.io/survivorpoolop…

@coversvanzack I get a break even point at 46% Two-Point success and 93% Extra-Point success.

The right move was going for 2 when the Ravens scored to go up 40-25.

@acaseofthegolf1 Do they give better status next season, when he has a card for a full season? This (half) season, he could miss every cut and still have a card for next year, so maybe they don’t see a reason to give him good status immediately.

Although I’m not a fan of PGA Tour U, I totally understand why the PGA Tour created it. It makes total sense in order to keep young stars. But if you’re going to do that, how does the status rank so low? David Ford is fifth alternate next week at the Rocket Mortgage. Seems like a miss.

@PlusEVAnalytics @abrown112 @DataBasedBets Sim of the Canadian Open 100,000 times. Made Cut: Clanton 67,407 Aberg 77,755 Pendrith 72,086 Conners 75,196 MacIntyre 72,605 Assuming independence, the parlay would hit 20.6274% of the time. It actually hit 20.503% of the time. Small effect because of how the cut line moves.

@PlusEVAnalytics @abrown112 @DataBasedBets Any fixed number will not work. Assuming the cut is top 65 and ties, the only way A, B, C, and D can affect E’s ability to make the cut is if: -ABCD all make the cut. -One (or more) of them make the cut on the number -Exactly 65 golfers make the cut -E misses the cut by 1 shot

A simple (not perfect, simple) approximation of the EV you're losing on a negatively correlated parlay of multiple players to occupy a fixed number of spots (make the cut, top 20, top 10, whatever): Example: 5 players, 70 spots (70/70) x (69/70) x (68/70) x (67/70) x (66/70) - 1 = -0.136 So you're losing 13.6% EV by parlaying them compared to playing them straight. Say NO to "make the cut" parlays!

@Sundogmonkey Rory was battling to not make the weekend.

A real reminder today as to why the cut line is so meaningful in golf & should be there in every event. Seeing Xander grind to keep his streak going as well as Rory battling to make the weekend is another level stuff.

@wzrdpicks1 @JeffreyBenson12 @joebrennanjr Also known as, a “Straight Bet”?

What’s the reason why on shore books don’t offer open parlays ?? @JeffreyBenson12 @joebrennanjr

@acaseofthegolf1 I never understood this logic. The twosomes’ round will take the same amount of time as the threesomes’ round. 72 shots in 4.5 hours has the same amount of waiting as 72 shots in 4.5 hours. You just wait more on the group ahead, instead of waiting on a guy in your own group.

A small but notable issue with the Tour not adding alternates since they expanded the field. With Taylor Moore’s WD that now makes three twosomes. Those guys are going to be waiting every single shot. It just makes no sense to me that once you expand the field you just keep it at that number to avoid this issue.

@MattVincenziPGA There was a @DataGolf blog on this in 2018. datagolf.com/whats-the-stro…

Trevino on The Players: “We have the strongest field of any golf tournament”. Don’t see how anyone could even begin to make that argument with a straight face.

@UVAWrestling Finished strong too evidently.

FINAL | UVA 39, Duke 0 The Hoos came out strong at JPJ on Friday night to take the victory over the Blue Devils. #GoHoos | #TheVirginiaWay

ShotQuality gives the inside scoop on why Boise State might pull the rug on Colorado State in their matchup tonight 🏀 #MountainWestMadness @JustinPerri8

@CutsfromCorner Great teams cover

If you ever need confirmation on NET's limitations (not that many do at this point), look no farther than us climbing 14 spots after last night's... showing.

@Harding4VA @CBS19News @DailyProgress Heard it’s been moved to Fifth Season

@MattWi77iams @David_n_Goliath Maybe throw in Boston to win the Championship and you’re at +500

@David_n_Goliath You can always build a juice reducer parlay & attach BOS moneyline or something similar. More risk obviously, but it ends up being like +133

Updated Early #NBA  Bets: Tues 3/12 Season: 1117-896 (+153.93 units)