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Oleksandr Dubinskyi
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Oleksandr Dubinskyi
@Dubinsky_pro
Political prisoner of Zelensky. 2 years in prison. Trump supporter. Leader of the anti-Soros initiative in Ukraine. Member of Ukrainian Parliament
Ukraine, Kyiv Katılım Eylül 2024
532 Takip Edilen33.3K Takipçiler
It may sound surprising, but it seems that progress toward peace in Ukraine is being driven by two people who aren’t directly connected to Ukraine -@realDonaldTrump and @PM_ViktorOrban .
I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for Viktor on April 12.
English
#DubinskyAnalysis
Trump’s statement that he trusts Putin more than Europeans has a very practical meaning.
In choosing an ally in Central and Eastern Europe, the U.S. is shifting from the EU - which it had relied on (in various forms) after World War II, balancing against the USSR - to Russia. In 1945, the USSR was strong, while Europe was weak and dependent on the U.S., so America relied on Europe.
As Europe strengthened and began to challenge U.S. regional hegemony—including by extending its influence into the former Soviet republics—the Americans started to feel the need to reduce the EU’s influence. The only force capable of ensuring this in the region is Russia. Therefore, there is nothing sensational about the switch toward Putin.
But personally, I would be interested to know whether this position originated with Trump, or if it dates back to the Geneva meeting between Putin and Biden in 2021.
@SEPeaceMissions @jaredkushner @POTUS @johnpcoale
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Currently, in the negotiations with the U.S. and Russia, Ukraine is represented from parliament only by Arakhamia, as the leader of the “mono-majority” faction. At the same time, no one in parliament is taking steps to expand parliamentary representation in these talks.
There are many available tools - for example, the so-called opposition figure Razumkov, who controls up to 10 members within “Servant of the People,” could demand participation in the negotiations, or those 10 members could leave the mono-majority, forcing the formation of a coalition with other factions.
But this “passive opposition” is not doing that.
Not a single political faction has officially appealed either to Zelensky or to Witkoff with a demand to be included in the delegation for negotiations with the U.S. and Russia.
This once again underscores that the entire “parliamentary crisis,” even if Arakhamia sold it to Trump as “pressure on Zelensky,” is fake.
As I wrote earlier, its main goal is to remove the Verkhovna Rada from voting on peace and territorial concessions, shifting responsibility onto the people through a referendum.
@SEPeaceMissions @jaredkushner @realDonaldTrump @POTUS
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“Political negotiations” in the United States, which Zelensky’s loyalists and members of the “party of war” have departed for, can only concern two main issues: the withdrawal of troops from Donbas and elections.
Or do you think that the article in the Times stating that elections cannot be held in 2026 - published just a few days before the negotiations - was a coincidence?
Of course not.
The task of Zelensky’s loyalists (he deliberately creates the impression that there are “different opinions” among his envoys) is to convince the Americans that elections are impossible if Zelensky agrees to withdraw troops. In other words: either elections through a ceasefire without troop withdrawal, or troop withdrawal (which the Presidential Office sees as disengagement) but without elections this year, since society does not accept the withdrawal of troops and there could be a social explosion.
It is clear that neither option satisfies either the Americans or the Russians. But Zelensky does not want - and cannot - offer anything else if he wants to preserve his power and his life, as well as the goodwill of Europe, which today ensures his international legitimacy and promises funding to continue the war.
@SEPeaceMissions @jaredkushner
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This is Ukraine of zelensky today.
This is what democracy looks like.
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Explaining why Europe is interested in prolonging the war in Ukraine , I put forward the idea that Ukraine, as we knew it before 2022, no longer exists.
If you believe everything will somehow work out - don’t read this post, this may disappoint you.
Put simply, the war has broken Ukraine’s backbone: there are not enough working people to support those who don’t work and to maintain the social system overall. Already now, income tax in Ukraine is 23% (18% + 5%), regardless of income level. On top of that, about 40% comes from payroll-related charges. That means the total tax burden on wages exceeds 60%, and there are plans to increase it further. Add a 20% VAT on consumption, and the overall tax burden approaches 80%.
The only “breathing space” in this system came from the simplified business scheme (Individual Entrepreneurs), but it is also being steadily dismantled. As of now, Ukraine is like a horse with a broken spine - it consumes resources but produces little, becoming a dead weight.
Formally, it is assumed that “strength will return”: people who left will come back, and migrants will arrive. But in reality, it’s hard to imagine rational people moving there under such conditions, regardless of where they come from. With a 60%+ tax burden, life in countries like Sweden is far more comfortable.
Once the current subsidies - provided mainly to keep the war going- are removed, the system will collapse very quickly.
In the 1990s, cities survived thanks to rural areas, but that model no longer works - many working-age men from rural regions have already been mobilized.
A deep socio-economic crisis after the war is inevitable. And this leads to another unpleasant conclusion: no one in the EU is going to take in a “collapsed” Ukraine—and they understand that perfectly well.
#Ukraine #Peace #Trump
Oleksandr Dubinskyi@Dubinsky_pro
#DubinskyAnalysis Why are Europeans so focused on giving loans to Ukraine, and why isn’t “bilateral” financing an option for them? Let’s skip simple explanations like “they’re crazy.” At this level, no one is acting irrationally - everything is based on hard calculation. So what’s the logic? Giving Ukraine loans to keep the war going is the EU’s main way to secure a place at the negotiating table when the war ends. The idea is to support Zelensky’s government now, and later use that position to negotiate terms and compromises. This is proxy politics in its clearest form. What do Europeans want from Putin? Just dialogue. But Moscow refuses and signals that it’s only ready to talk with Washington. In other words, Russia is saying that the key decision-makers in the region are itself and the United States. Meanwhile, Europeans are trying - through Ukraine - to gain equal status with both. That’s why Ukraine’s role is so difficult: to follow Washington’s lead while continuing the war with Russia. This also explains why @PM_ViktorOrban is strongly disliked in the European Commission. He is going in the opposite direction - against conflict with Russia and in favor of closer ties with the US. From the EU’s point of view, he looks like a “Trojan horse,” and there are ongoing efforts to push him aside. Now about so-called “bilateral” financing, where individual countries support Ukraine instead of the EU as a whole. In that case, a group of countries inside the EU would gain more influence in negotiations with Russia and the US than the major EU economies - Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. These are the “Nordic” countries (plus Norway), which are more closely aligned with London than with Berlin or Paris. In NATO, Northern Europe is coordinated through structures linked to the UK. So while bilateral funding might allow Ukraine to keep fighting, the main influence would shift toward London - which doesn’t suit the older EU powers. As mentioned, April 12 - the election date in Hungary - is important here. If Orbán loses, the EU will continue to lead its approach to the war in Ukraine. If he wins, London’s influence will grow, strengthening the “Nordics” within the EU. So what does this mean for Ukraine? In short - nothing good. In many ways, the country as it was no longer exists, but that’s a separate discussion. @BoardOfPeace @WhiteHouse @SEPeaceMissions @jaredkushner @VP #Ukraine #Peace #Trump #Dubinsky
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#DubinskyAnalysis
Why are Europeans so focused on giving loans to Ukraine, and why isn’t “bilateral” financing an option for them?
Let’s skip simple explanations like “they’re crazy.”
At this level, no one is acting irrationally - everything is based on hard calculation. So what’s the logic?
Giving Ukraine loans to keep the war going is the EU’s main way to secure a place at the negotiating table when the war ends. The idea is to support Zelensky’s government now, and later use that position to negotiate terms and compromises. This is proxy politics in its clearest form.
What do Europeans want from Putin? Just dialogue. But Moscow refuses and signals that it’s only ready to talk with Washington. In other words, Russia is saying that the key decision-makers in the region are itself and the United States.
Meanwhile, Europeans are trying - through Ukraine - to gain equal status with both. That’s why Ukraine’s role is so difficult: to follow Washington’s lead while continuing the war with Russia.
This also explains why @PM_ViktorOrban is strongly disliked in the European Commission.
He is going in the opposite direction - against conflict with Russia and in favor of closer ties with the US. From the EU’s point of view, he looks like a “Trojan horse,” and there are ongoing efforts to push him aside.
Now about so-called “bilateral” financing, where individual countries support Ukraine instead of the EU as a whole.
In that case, a group of countries inside the EU would gain more influence in negotiations with Russia and the US than the major EU economies - Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.
These are the “Nordic” countries (plus Norway), which are more closely aligned with London than with Berlin or Paris. In NATO, Northern Europe is coordinated through structures linked to the UK.
So while bilateral funding might allow Ukraine to keep fighting, the main influence would shift toward London - which doesn’t suit the older EU powers.
As mentioned, April 12 - the election date in Hungary - is important here. If Orbán loses, the EU will continue to lead its approach to the war in Ukraine. If he wins, London’s influence will grow, strengthening the “Nordics” within the EU.
So what does this mean for Ukraine? In short - nothing good.
In many ways, the country as it was no longer exists, but that’s a separate discussion.
@BoardOfPeace @WhiteHouse @SEPeaceMissions @jaredkushner @VP
#Ukraine #Peace #Trump #Dubinsky
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Oleksandr Dubinskyi retweetledi
Внутрішньо окупований Київ. Українець втікає від військового бандита в формі ЗСУ.
Українська
@Dubinsky_pro 👍👍 ...Oleksandr Dubinskyi, thanks again for your great insight into what a huge problem Zelenskyy and his corrupt regime are. I'm looking forward to Orban remaining in power ...and having him continue to protect the Hungarian people, etc.
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The Ukrainian delegation’s trip to the U.S. is mostly symbolic - Kyiv is not seriously negotiating. Zelensky is unlikely to compromise unless the situation at home becomes critical.
That could happen if several factors come together - for example, if European funding is blocked while a corruption investigation involves Zelensky or his family.
External pressure alone won’t change things. The White House should already understand this.
A real shift would require a serious internal crisis - but only if the U.S. has someone ready to replace Zelensky.
This would likely mean forcing the government to resign and reshaping the parliamentary coalition to install new political leaders. And that, again, would require a crisis.
While Washington is deciding what comes first, a financial crisis could emerge on its own. One key factor: Viktor Orbán @PM_ViktorOrban staying in power in Hungary and continuing to block EU funding - a role expected to involve J.D. Vance @VP
@POTUS @WhiteHouse @BoardOfPeace
#Ukraine #Peace #Trump
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@Dubinsky_pro what we would want is not what the EU would like.
Something drastic needs to occur.
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Oleksandr Dubinskyi retweetledi
Так виглядають воєнні злочинці ТЦК в Одесі. Вони знають, що порушують закон. Ховають обличчя.
Але деяких опізнати можна.
➡️Впізнали? Пишіть на t.me/baza112ua
Українська
Oleksandr Dubinskyi retweetledi
Ігор Мосійчук заявив, що ініціює після закриття ЄС для Євгена Карася, додатково звернутися до угорських партнерів із проханням розглянути можливість обмежень щодо осіб, які публічно допускають риторику військової агресії проти держав Європейського Союзу.
Йдеться про, зокрема, Володимира Петрова, Сергія Грішина та Сергія Іванова. У публічному просторі поширювалися їхні висловлювання, які, за оцінками можуть містити заклики до військових дій або агресії щодо Угорщини.
Подібна риторика може створювати ризики для міжнародних відносин України та потенційно загрожувати національній безпеці.
Очікується, що зібрані матеріали та відповідні звернення будуть передані до урядів країн ЄС і США для подальшого розгляду.
Підтримуєте, щоб ці режимні клоуни стали невиїзними?
Українська
Together with my colleague @Dmytruk__Artem Artem Dmytruk, we have appealed to the U.S. Department of State @marcorubio @SecRubio @UnderSecPD to include the tremendous issue of political prisoners in Ukraine in any future peace agreement.
The problem is alarming: more than 55,000 probes have already been opened under “national security” charges.
Hundreds of thousands are persecuted for their views and beliefs. Thousands are detained without trial, and around 1.5 million people are effectively deprived of their civil rights.
Peace is impossible without restoring justice and civil freedoms.
@SEPeaceMissions @jaredkushner @POTUS
#Ukraine #Peace #Trump
English
Oleksandr Dubinskyi@Dubinsky_pro
We sent a letter to President Trump’s special envoy @SEPeaceMissions Steve Witkoff and @jaredkushner Jared Kushner, saying that any peace agreements on Ukraine should be tied to resolving the issue of political prisoners and men who refused to take up arms. These people have become victims of political persecution and are being used by the Zelensky regime to intimidate Ukrainian society. We also pointed out that this affects 1.5 million Ukrainians (including their family members) whose rights have been restricted by the Ukrainian government to keep them out of future elections and strip them of their right to vote. @realDonaldTrump @DonaldJTrumpJr @POTUS @VP @SecRubio @RepLuna @realannapaulina @ZachWitkoff @johnpcoale @Dmytruk__Artem @Alexand79094374 #Ukraine #Peace #Trump
QME
On the ground at the Lithuanian-Belarus border. Today’s release of 250 individuals is a significant humanitarian milestone and a testament to the President’s commitment to direct, hard-nosed diplomacy. Freedom is our goal. We extend our deepest gratitude to our Lithuanian partners for their pivotal role in this mission.
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I am Ukrainian. I am ashamed of Sean Penn.
He is an outstanding actor whose films I truly love. However, what he is doing now is deeply disappointing.
He traveled to Ukraine, not simply to support the country, but to publicly associate himself with a corrupt official-someone who has been stealing millions of dollars from my country. This same individual was removed from his position as Head of the Presidential Office due to corruption.
This person, Andriy Yermak, is someone whom no respectable individual in Ukraine would even shake hands with.
Yet Sean Penn appears indifferent to whom he associates with, as long as there is money involved. One could imagine him standing beside anyone - whether it be Epstein or William “Boss” Tweed - if there is financial incentive.
I genuinely wonder how much Sean Penn was paid to promote a criminal and corrupt figure like Yermak. Or is he truly doing this for free?
Sean, it would have been far more meaningful if you had visited the prisons in Kyiv, where Ukrainians opposition figures and political opponents - are being held. Many of them, according to claims, were arrested and imprisoned under fabricated criminal cases, including for criticizing Yermak himself.
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