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@MachineKing23 @TMTLongShort brother you are calling banks for mortgage rates and worried about hunter biden, its time to buy index funds and pick up a gardening hobby

I'd love your take on why they can't (or wont) get mortgage rates down? I'm the dumbass who rode the whole wave. Locked in a 30 year fixed in early 2020 at 2.75% Paid it off early because boomer parental advice said so. In early 2022 refinanced that at 5ish% In late 2022 did a refi 7% on an investment property. Did exact same thing in summer 2023. Numbers didn't change. Interest rates have not budged. I call banks every few months. They half heartedly try to sell me on refi-ing the 7% ones down 0.5-1.0%. Don't even acknowledge the 5% one. Whatever sent rates straight up from 2% to 8% 2 years, just throw that shit in reverse. As a young person I truly could not care less what breaks. Finance friends tell me it was all the money printed during covid. Here's my thing with that: that money isn't in the economy. Its in swiss bank accounts of airline execs. It's overseas in China and Ukraine through Hunter Biden Hell I bet a non zero portion was just swallowed back up by $MRNA 's collapse back to pre covid levels. Not to mention the $GME squeeze. But these are the ramblings of a schizo who missed the signal. Not this time. If Mamdani ever says "Hantavirus" I'm full porting MRNA leaps and moving to Florida.

We closed the borders driving negative labor force growth. We shocked higher oil prices. We turbo pumped the wealth effect via equities at ATHs… And yet, inflation remains muted. We are about to crush consumer sentiment for the entirety of white collar. Every college kid is freaking out about job prospects and locking-in. The risk is going to be towards deflation even as the govt attempts to run the economy hot as we re-industrialize and buildout AI infra. The difference between now and COVID is we are pushing capital towards productive assets. I’d argue the most productive asset humanity has ever discovered. That is very diff vs funding your local miami rappers lambo with PPP loans.

@TMTLongShort i mean longer term i get it but are we not coming off back-to-back 3.5%+ prints with energy yet to completely flow through + a labor market starting to heat up more?

@botxtraderz @stevehou bbg is just highly economical bundled proprietary data feed. kind of like cable. but it’s $20,000 and for finance nerds. claude and codex dont have access to the same data.

@stevehou Codex/claude code I know Terminal is powerful, there's no denying it! But it's still a dashboard being fed data. And you can get a ton of that very quickly just with codex/claude code. The ability to create on spot dashboards with anything or any kind of data is insane!

I miss the Terminal already! 😭 I might need to start a gofundme. 💰🥹

@atelicinvest prob best to just assume whenever something doesn’t make sense, that you’re simply not understanding something

I've said this before but it bears repeating One of the easiest mistake to make in investing is seeing price action that doesn't make sense and immediately assuming that it'll resolve immediately Unless you can point to the mechanism and how it goes away - assume it won't make sense going forward

most interesting part of the alex wang interview to me was when he said "zuck in some ways is THE founder" in this very reverential sort of way. we are 100% seeing the establishment of some techno futurist religion and it's kind of unsettling to see.

@RepoTactics @SowingAlphaSeed aqr runs a high vol version of their managed futures fund, and long/short has more vol than straight up market neutral, but ya, some more HV versions would be nice to see. guess they want to keep some stuff in HF vehicles.

Agreed - but just wish it was run at a higher volatility! Take a look at these stats for a little more history. Given it's a fund of funds with target weights of the following (though these change dependent on the AQR's view on tactical fund tilts). AQRNX: 33% ADAIX: 13% QGMIX: 13% QMNIX: 13% QMHIX: 13% QSPIX: 13% Cash: 2% Given this, I built a synthetic model attempting to capture the funds performance from 2014 to June 2020 (excluded tactical tilts given I lack that proprietary knowledge). The first table is a splice of synthetic before 6/8/2020, actual results after 6/8/2020. In the attached chart, blue is the synthetic, orange are actual results. R^2 of .94 between Synthetic and Actual.

$QDSIX might be the safest looking investment I've found

@SowingAlphaSeed it's an excellent strategy. the allocator in me wants to pick & choose my weights to various aqr funds but this is just such a simple way to get good diversification for equity beta.

@robustus @stevehou x.com/2ang7/status/2…

@stevehou I guess if I had to pick a single metric rn, it'd be when anth+oai run rate flattens

I'm not too concerned by the latest inflation report as far as the stock market is concerned. AI dominance continues. Just thought I'd point it out.

est ARR for OAI + Anthropic at a weekly or daily interval based on public data:

@Noahpinion obligatory yes they are very stupid and sycophantic but this tweet has zero sourcing afaik

One thing you have to understand about Trump and his advisers is that they are very, very stupid people

@EconomPic @John_Hempton @ActuallyFinance @CliffordAsness @IrvingSwisher @NateGeraci @BullandBaird @cullenroche @Convertbond @realDonaldTrump @choffstein @Me @dopamine_uptake @BoringBiz_ @bennpeifert @Foulke_David @LoganMohtashami @Matt_Wiens @scuttleblurb @kylascan @QuietProsperity @JC_ParetsX @TheStalwart @FinTwitAnons @jclooce @RPSeawright @MikeDonnellyJr @Bonecondor @AdvisorMikeL @LizSimmie @MebFaber @RyanMGavin @Prashanth_Krish @andrew_reed @HighyieldHarry @AdamSinger @JSeyff @AlexPickard @ByrneHobart @syouth1 @HML_Compounder @ferventfinance @colby__donovan @stevehou @falsademanda @friedoystercult @wintermoat @Byte_Sized_Blog the "rebase 100" in the legends getting completely nullified by the dual y-axis is such an awesome way to distort this. the S&P would have to triple from here to be on pace with Japan's bubble.

@John_Hempton @ActuallyFinance @CliffordAsness @IrvingSwisher @NateGeraci @BullandBaird @cullenroche @Convertbond @realDonaldTrump @choffstein @Me @dopamine_uptake @BoringBiz_ @bennpeifert @Foulke_David @LoganMohtashami @Matt_Wiens @scuttleblurb @kylascan @QuietProsperity @JC_ParetsX @TheStalwart @FinTwitAnons @jclooce @RPSeawright @MikeDonnellyJr @Bonecondor @AdvisorMikeL @LizSimmie @MebFaber @RyanMGavin @Prashanth_Krish @andrew_reed @HighyieldHarry @AdamSinger @JSeyff @AlexPickard @ByrneHobart @syouth1 @HML_Compounder @ferventfinance @colby__donovan @stevehou @falsademanda @friedoystercult @wintermoat @Byte_Sized_Blog HT @BullandBaird

First ballot Hall of Fame #chartcrime

@alphaarchitect @SowingAlphaSeed @invertedfragil1 @grok yes, de facto running your ETF as a one-sided CEF goes completely against the entire spirit of 6c-11, which i did not realize. as far as SEC rules go, this is a good read.

@2ang7 @SowingAlphaSeed @invertedfragil1 Check out 6c 11 relief. @grok can you explain why sec created 6c 11 and the mechanics in place to ensure price and nav are roughly consistent?

I've been trying to brainstorm ways a microcap investor could run an ETF. Some ideas: 1. High fee. This would help keep AUM down. 2. Multi-manager. Put 2-3 microcap managers in the ETF so it's more diversified. 3. Add an index portion. Set strict rules for how large a position can be compared to average daily volume. If these limits prevent you from reaching your target beta/exposure, then the residual is dumped into another ETF (e.g. $AVDV). Combining 1+3 should create a market mechanism for reaching a fair AUM. As AUM grows, the alpha decays and the higher fee is no longer justifiable, so AUM shrinks, alpha grows again, repeat.

@SowingAlphaSeed my reply above is wrong:

@SowingAlphaSeed i actually think the ETF structure works well here, because (this is my very surface level understanding) issuers can choose to stop creating new shares. effectively, liquid normal ETF until some $ amount, you stop creating shares, becomes akin to a CEF.

@alphaarchitect @SowingAlphaSeed @invertedfragil1 interesting... thanks!

@2ang7 @SowingAlphaSeed @invertedfragil1 Nope. Can't stop create/redeem for any extended period. The key reason etfs are allowed to break so many rules is they need to ensure there are mechanism in place such that nav=value with high confidence. If that relationship goes south, it creates a lot of problems.

@alphaarchitect @SowingAlphaSeed @invertedfragil1 is it not true that an ETF issuer could simply... stop creating new shares? and then the premium on the ETF would spike to meet secondary demand. but that doesn't strike me as an especially bad shareholder outcome (good for holders!). i'm probably misunderstanding something.

A fundamental problem with ETFs is no realistic capacity mgmt tools. Only option is to adapt portfolio for more scale (i.e., change strategy!). No fixing that. So low capacity stuff works, until it doesn't. If demands spikes you run into all kinda of chaos and bad shareholder outcomes.

@tylermacro10 @WarrenPies @sonusvarghese well well

@2ang7 @WarrenPies @sonusvarghese They’re exactly equal over long periods

At 15% structural margins, topline growth provides so much juice and valuation support. Not a bubble.

@tylermacro10 @WarrenPies @sonusvarghese my personal econometric model (eyeballs) states with 99% confidence that they are correlated but revenue has a beta of 2 (right in line with 11% rev growth + 5.5% nom gdp!)

@WarrenPies @sonusvarghese They’re v highly cointegrated in any econometric model Can discuss later

@stevehou i mean, we can absolutely overbuild compute, no? isn't that why semis were sort of trudging along until Claude code came out - ample compute availability, questionable roi on the buildout?

This is a really important point. Most of the discussion about the AI bubble resulting from overbuild of AI compute overlooks the physical constraint that it’s literally almost impossible to overbuild no matter how much capital is committed. The constraint is physics.

i am not a metal guy (wood is my favorite material) but this album kicks serious ass open.spotify.com/album/6R9JG8pk…