Grant Gordon
413 posts

Grant Gordon
@Grant__Gordon
GGF. ex @armada_ai, Stanford 🌲, Sequoia Company Design @DecartAI @watneyrobotics @CocoRobotics @superpower @terraindustries @trygravityai

We’re officially in our new Era.



for AI-native consumer apps to be truly ubiquitous we need: ARPU > Average Inference Cost Per User. How far away are we from that? Ideally AI native apps can hit APIs on every screen yet also pay for just by throwing some ads on it But I think we’re a while away: - unfort we’re probably >10x off right now. Monthly ARPU is $2-5? Token costs for an AI heavy app might be $20-50 of cost - much of consumer is global. Even if we hit the US/EU it’ll be a while before we can serve the broad base - more importantly every time AI improves, consumers demand more. No one wants to talk to a last gen AI character. If video gets good they’ll want videos everywhere - same issue for LLMs. We started with short replies back. Now we want agents who can do entire tasks for us - it might be we need major innovations in small models or new mobile hardware so that we have free local inference. But that will still not be as good as SOTA cloud LLMs obv, but might solve some use cases No wonder so many products focus on productivity, and on prosumers who can pay $100s or $1000s on work related tasks. This is where you can have huge ARPUs and benefit from being SOTA. And it seems as though there’s no limit for tokens… so why do the low end?








.@terraindustries CEO @_KingNath says defense contracting in the US is much more bureaucratic than in Africa: "No one is expecting you to write dozens of proposals and come to their office and present PowerPoints. They're expecting you to already have a solution to the problem." "The defense contracting model in Africa is fundamentally very different from how it's done in the West. In the West, it's quite bureaucratic. It could take you one to two years before you get to a program of record. In Africa, it's very network-based and very solution-first." "The Anduril approach of taking R&D head-on and having the actual products to then go carry out live demos in the field works perfectly for the model of defense contracting on the continent, and that has allowed us to scale very rapidly."





Hello World 👋 Welcome to Drafted — an AI tool that lets anyone design a home from scratch, tailored to your life. techcrunch.com/2025/12/23/thi…











